hockeythug
Active Member
Is that really his main reason?
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...an-stanley-reiterates-on-tesla-motors-inc-as-
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
-
Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
- Status
Is that really his main reason?
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...an-stanley-reiterates-on-tesla-motors-inc-as-
chickensevil
Active Member
So much for holding 265... RSI is dropping again, and the stock is sub 262. I think the next major hold will be the 50MMA at 249.
Yes!
while this is painful to watch, I realize that stocks do not just go straight up, they encounter bumps and this is one. What amazes me is that only 4mm shares have traded and we're down over $17.
Perfectlogic
Member
What a huge move on the news that an analyst is slightly less bullish on the stock, so much for a rational market, good thing I squared my options, at least it opens an opportunity to get in with some leverage again as the upside expands.
A covered call has the same risk profile as a naked put, so I don't really categorize that as a defensive move. Unlimited downside risk on either. I actually think it's kind of silly that some of the huge brokerage firms (Fidelity comes to mind) tell their retail account holders about covered calls and how it's a nice "conservative" strategy, but won't let them trade naked puts unless they have level 3 options approval. It's literally the exact same risk/reward.
chickensevil
Active Member
How does it have the same risk/reward as a naked put? For one, a naked put means you have no stock backing it, so if it goes south you have to come up with 100 shares at current value and you lose real money. Now if you had a covered put that would be a whole other story. Because you would be limiting your downside risk, By locking in a "bottom" price. But a naked put is not the same at all.
- - - Updated - - -
We are at around 5.28M shares traded, and the Avg is 5.73 For it only being 1:30 into trading and almost at the Avg? That is a considerable number of shares. I would expect big moves on big volume. This is big volume.
- - - Updated - - -
Note that the drop from 286 to 276 on the 5th didn't even see this much volume.
Perceptions of Morgan Stanley / Adam Jonas Note 9-15-2014
I am a Morgan Stanley client. I read the entire Adam Jonas note, and it is objectively, patently odd. Most of the article reads like a super bullish believer trying as hard as they can to spin anything they said in the last year negatively without any meaningful facts or citations, and without saying anything substantially negative about the company. I simply cannot believe that he himself believes some of the wild-swing claims he is making.
For an individual who has spent his entire career covering the automotive industry to suddenly say this is bizarre:
Really? No one will buy or want to drive cars anymore in 15 years? Disappearing steering wheels? In the USA? Double-u Tee Eff?
Now, I am about the most bullish person I have ever heard of about autonomous driving. I believe it is inevitable, essential and of huge benefit, and most of my neighbors and friends here on the East Coast think I'm crazy. But if you think Americans in particular will EVER part with buying individual transportation and the freedom that it literally buys, you *are* crazy. It just isn't logical that this would come to pass unless the entire planet was already as densely populated as Manhattan and we were dying by the millions due to transportation-related issues alone. It's not, and we're not. Humans outside a select few in 10 metro areas or so planet-wide have/love/want cars.
This note reads like AJ either:
A) Went "temporarily crazy" over the weekend with some designer chemicals at a party
B) Is being extorted
C) Is working an inside "dump and pump" trade or
D) Thinks he needs to throw out an overly negative fluff piece to preserve perceptions of his "objectivity" as a professional equities analyst.
I suspect D) is the answer, but even if this is his intent, I don't think he has done himself any favors with this piece. Calling Tesla a "niche player"? Really? At this point, after your 50-page essay on how if only Tesla could build a GigaFactory, they could change the world on a massive scale, suddenly has reverted to "niche player?"
It smells odd, and I don't believe that Mr. Jonas even believes much of what he published today.
I'm going to take this opportunity to accumulate shares in the greatest company of the next few decades. I would of course caution everyone to be careful and not do what I do without your own due diligence and research.
I am a Morgan Stanley client. I read the entire Adam Jonas note, and it is objectively, patently odd. Most of the article reads like a super bullish believer trying as hard as they can to spin anything they said in the last year negatively without any meaningful facts or citations, and without saying anything substantially negative about the company. I simply cannot believe that he himself believes some of the wild-swing claims he is making.
For an individual who has spent his entire career covering the automotive industry to suddenly say this is bizarre:
Adam Jonas said:
Really? No one will buy or want to drive cars anymore in 15 years? Disappearing steering wheels? In the USA? Double-u Tee Eff?
Now, I am about the most bullish person I have ever heard of about autonomous driving. I believe it is inevitable, essential and of huge benefit, and most of my neighbors and friends here on the East Coast think I'm crazy. But if you think Americans in particular will EVER part with buying individual transportation and the freedom that it literally buys, you *are* crazy. It just isn't logical that this would come to pass unless the entire planet was already as densely populated as Manhattan and we were dying by the millions due to transportation-related issues alone. It's not, and we're not. Humans outside a select few in 10 metro areas or so planet-wide have/love/want cars.
This note reads like AJ either:
A) Went "temporarily crazy" over the weekend with some designer chemicals at a party
B) Is being extorted
C) Is working an inside "dump and pump" trade or
D) Thinks he needs to throw out an overly negative fluff piece to preserve perceptions of his "objectivity" as a professional equities analyst.
I suspect D) is the answer, but even if this is his intent, I don't think he has done himself any favors with this piece. Calling Tesla a "niche player"? Really? At this point, after your 50-page essay on how if only Tesla could build a GigaFactory, they could change the world on a massive scale, suddenly has reverted to "niche player?"
It smells odd, and I don't believe that Mr. Jonas even believes much of what he published today.
I'm going to take this opportunity to accumulate shares in the greatest company of the next few decades. I would of course caution everyone to be careful and not do what I do without your own due diligence and research.
chickensevil
Active Member
Wow, that was a first for me, the RSI actually hit 0 for a moment there, I don't think there is any stopping this drop at the moment and this is a really hard fall... Hope we get some ground before 250 at least for today...
- - - Updated - - -
Hey thanks a lot for sharing your views on his report. It does seem really... weird... Maybe he talked with management and everyone is trying to brace for Q3 and set appropriate expectations? It is the only thing that makes any sense to me. In either case, I agree with your final thought, and while I am happily playing this downside turn as far as options goes, I will very quickly turn this into shares once I detect a solid bottom. I just feel bad for those who might have bought at 290 since it is going to be a while before we see 290 again...
- - - Updated - - -
Hey thanks a lot for sharing your views on his report. It does seem really... weird... Maybe he talked with management and everyone is trying to brace for Q3 and set appropriate expectations? It is the only thing that makes any sense to me. In either case, I agree with your final thought, and while I am happily playing this downside turn as far as options goes, I will very quickly turn this into shares once I detect a solid bottom. I just feel bad for those who might have bought at 290 since it is going to be a while before we see 290 again...
I love this. I'm not sure why people are freaking out so much. This is a beautiful sight, a few more days like this and I might join the Teslanaire club as well... The stock was overbought like crazy and got way ahead of itself at $290. Its fair price is $220-$250ish. Everything indicated to a downturn this week, so you short/buy puts. Make money on the way down... Then when its oversold, and you know that the story hasn't changed (TSLA will still take over the world in about 20 years), you buy calls like there is no tomorrow... So volatility is awesome, it means you make money in both directions.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I am beginning to suspect that someone is exerting pressure on Jonas. Making nonsensical bear points would be one way to acquiesce to pressure with a wink to those who can see through the nonsense. Perhaps he is being threatened with losing access to other automakers. This is pretty ugly if the industry is that desperate, but it is a huge opportunity to buy at a discount.
everman
Member
Chickens, How far out are you looking on options during this downside turn? Jan '15's, further out or short term? ITM or OTM? Thanks.
chickensevil
Active Member
Oh no, I didn't like the pricings on anything farther out just yet... so am totally just playing this week right now. I made my initial trade on Friday toward the end of the day, and did it as a strip, after that initial bounce this morning I sold off my puts and taking just the profits I made a new strip with the 262.5 and the 272.5 put and call. (a strip is a straddle with 2 puts and 1 call... normally played ATM, but again, I don't really like those prices and with the huge volatility right now, I feel confident in the spread).
But I caution you... pay no mind to what I am doing since I am still VERY new to actually trading options... So I am likely doing it all wrong and just getting lucky... who knows?
All I can tell you, is that the stock was overdue for a pullback. I wasn't expecting a crash this hard this fast, but was expecting it to do *something* most likely to the negative. Given the singular drop today, it could very well just fizzle out here, and trade sideways for a while... I am really out of my depth here since the stock did what I expected it to do... just much quicker than I expected it to happen... which kinda scares me, if I were being honest.
hockeythug
Active Member
The whole thing seems odd as he had a $320 price target back in Febuary if I'm not mistaken. Where was this analysis like "people are not going to buy cars in 15 years" when he was making that decision?
or (e) which is AJ is trying to align himself as much as possible with Elon as a way of brown-nosing as AJ wants:
1-Elon to like him more than any other analyst and to give him first crack at things from the Model X to Giga Factory, etc.
2-Elon to realize AJ is gong to do whatever he can to help EM's greater mission and if that means helping EM decide where he thinks the stock price should be (whether it be higher for a capital raise or lower bc Elon says so) then AJ will do hs best to help with that too
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Quick, someone in Germany take me out for dinner. Stick will rise because I'll be in a good mood.
- Status
Similar threads
