Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[eepic]

But isn't that what everyone was saying about Germany and the superchargers (which never happened)? I am not trying to be pessimistic about this, since I really do think China is going to be big for Tesla, just trying to sort out Mr. Market's thinking here that a little Supercharger news would cause this kind of pop. Were we THAT desperate for positive news that we will take this and run with it?

I mean this is good, but is it really THAT good?

I think it's because this represents a vote of confidence from Unicom with regards to the demand in China. Unlike the informed folk on TMC, to the majority of the inattentive market demand is still a big question mark. When they have the second largest carrier in China partner, it gives Tesla more credibility towards the fact that demand is not an issue. It also may be causing Chinese investors to give TSLA another look and it may be some of their money helping drive up the price this morning.

What's odd to me is I don't see how this benefits China Unicom much beyond PR... it's not like everytime someone stops to charge they want to purchase a new cell phone plan. It would have been a much more natural partnership with some sort of food or shopping chain. Does anyone know if China Unicom's stores are often at malls or places with a lot of amenities?

 

[hobbes]

Any votes by the California Legislature should be posted on their website. That may add further fuel later in the day.

Just searched the ca.gov website and found a bill which talks about a battery factory - is this THE bill or are there others? The last entry in its history (see Bill Text - SB-1309 Battery manufacturing: electric vehicles and stationary uses. ) is from 06/04/14:

From committee with author's amendments. Read second time and amended. Re-referred to Com. on RLS.

What is the committee on RLS? Only found Restless legs syndrome .

 

[mitch672]

What's odd to me is I don't see how this benefits China Unicom much beyond PR... it's not like everytime someone stops to charge they want to purchase a new cell phone plan. It would have been a much more natural partnership with some sort of food or shopping chain. Does anyone know if China Unicom's stores are often at malls or places with a lot of amenities?

There's likely a LOT more to this than has been publicly announced. Every Model S in the U.S. has a 3G data connection through AT&T, I wonder which carrier Tesla is using in China? You probably don't have to put much thought into it, they've likely partnered with China Unicom. Also, Tesla is supplying the equipment, while China Unicom secures the ground leases and gets the installation work, mostly paid for by the Chinese government, based on other recent announcements. So to answer your question, they get customers for their data network, installation money for the work, and good P.R. sounds like a win to me. Tesla gets a rapid rollout of infrastructure while not having to deal with all of the minutia/details of hundreds of different sites 10,000 miles from Fremont.

 

[eepic]

There's likely a LOT more to this than has been publicly announced. Every Model S in the U.S. has a 3G data connection through AT&T, I wonder which carrier Tesla is using in China? You probably don't have to put much thought into it, they've likely partnered with China Unicom. Also, Tesla is supplying the equipment, while China Unicom secures the ground leases and gets the installation work, mostly paid for by the Chinese government, based on other recent announcements. So to answer your question, they get customers for their data network, installation money for the work, and done good P.R. sounds like a win to me.

Good point, probably stemming from a deeper relationship with the 3G connectivity (just read from a different thread that TM is indeed using China Unicom in the cars). I suppose the installation work doesn't necessarily get justified by the thousands of cars they get as wireless 'customers' currently, but I suppose this means tens to hundreds of thousands of incremental customers if Tesla executes the Model 3 correctly.

My question was more from the perspective of the end users, would Unicom outlets be a naturally convenient place to stop? I'm guessing a lot of their locations are at plazas or malls.

 

[Joel]

Can someone post a chart? I enjoy reading those.

Also, no one commented on my previous question: will Tuesday be a "Tesla Tuesday" being that Monday is a Holiday? Does perform the same as a "Tesla Tuesday" when it follows a Federal Holiday (MLK Day, Memorial Day, Labor Day)?

 

[AlMc]

Can someone post a chart? I enjoy reading those.

Also, no one commented on my previous question: will Tuesday be a "Tesla Tuesday" being that Monday is a Holiday? Does perform the same as a "Tesla Tuesday" when it follows a Federal Holiday (MLK Day, Memorial Day, Labor Day)?

I recall reading that the long weekends (holiday Monday) usually cause Tuesdays to mimic the Friday trend before the holiday. IF that holds true then Tuesday may be a good TSLA day. Any TA people please chime in but I recall reading that off someone's chart/work.

 

[Jack6591]

I'm not a technician, but we have been consolidating for a bit. Is this just the spark to start the breakout???

 

[InTheShadows]

I'm not a technician, but we have been consolidating for a bit. Is this just the spark to start the breakout???

Same here, however if we close around 270 or better I think that is a strong bull case.

Does anyone know if 272 was a fib? I seem to remember someone mentioning 272 before and we had a hard fall when we hit it however it got supported really fast and we seem to be holding 270 rather well.

 

[Causalien]

I'm not a technician, but we have been consolidating for a bit. Is this just the spark to start the breakout???

This is the piercing of the M. Which means that TSLA probably have a TA guy to help them time their news release.
Those who bought anstraddle or sold a butterfly. Now you should start closing the position. At least take back the original investment.

 

[InTheShadows]

This is the piercing of the M. Which means that TSLA probably have a TA guy to help them time their news release.

They wouldn't use TA to time a news release would they? Ooh, maybe they will roll the Model X out of the factory tonight at closing bell so everyone can talk about it while they visit friends and family for the holiday weekend.

Would be an awesome way to end the summer season.

Ok, I'm done dreaming now. Time to get back to work.

 

[chickensevil]

Until today we had never broken into 270. There was some serious resistance forming in the 266-268 range and now that we have broken the resistance there should be no reason for us to not try to get a serious push for the stars. Each day will run it's course, and if we can get a solid 2-3% gain each day until the end of next week we should be pushing 300 at that point. If this is a breakout and run, that is how I would expect it to play.

Same here, however if we close around 270 or better I think that is a strong bull case.

Does anyone know if 272 was a fib? I seem to remember someone mentioning 272 before and we had a hard fall when we hit it however it got supported really fast and we seem to be holding 270 rather well.

According to Google and OptionsHouse both are reporting that at least one trade did happen at 272, so that wasn't a lie. On the RSI as soon as we hit 272 we went from REALLY overbought right down into oversold (talking 89.22 vs 18.58 in a span of 15 minutes). Most likely that triggered people's sell orders which caused the drop and we have been holding the 270s ever since. It we get another set of exuberance on the buy side today, we should see it break through 272... Come on afternoon rush!

Beyond today though it is anyone's guess.

- - - Updated - - -

They wouldn't use TA to time a news release would they? Ooh, maybe they will roll the Model X out of the factory tonight at closing bell so everyone can talk about it while they visit friends and family for the holiday weekend.

Would be an awesome way to end the summer season.

Ok, I'm done dreaming now. Time to get back to work.

As I recall there are options tied to many things at the company, one of them being the valuation. So if they wanted to trigger those options, then timing releases to happen at the "best time" would be smart for many reasons.

But I still think we are going to have a rough Q3, I plan to close out any short term options by 20 Sept and then just wait out Q3... because it just seems too risky for me.

There was an article that the headline just caught my eye where it was estimating that the warranty change would cause a .10 EPS hit on the earnings... if that is true (and I am not saying it is) then we have a very shaky Q3 ahead of us that could really go either way.

 

[Zzzz...]

Elon will get options when market cap of TSLA reach 43 billion usd. We are only at 32.7 billion right now. TSLA is severely underpriced.

 

[chickensevil]

Elon will get options when market cap of TSLA reach 43 billion usd. We are only at 32.7 billion right now. TSLA is severely underpriced.

Wow, rough calculation puts that at a share price of 345!

Is that really what the next threshold is? Do you know what the expiration date is for those options before they become worthless?

 

[Causalien]

Wow, rough calculation puts that at a share price of 345!

Is that really what the next threshold is? Do you know what the expiration date is for those options before they become worthless?

Elon will not sell, so he is not a technical event. Next technical event is 319.59

 

[chickensevil]

Elon will not sell, so he is not a technical event. Next technical event is 319.59

Why isn't he a technical event? That would be an execution of stock options which would increase his stake in the company and make him richer. Just like he is pushing for the release of the Model X Alpha and Beta because there are stock options tied to that happening, and it has to happen within a certain timeframe or they expire and he doesn't get them. Meaning he has pressure to make these things happen BEFORE that expiration date. So that is why knowing what that date is will tell you when you can expect that kind of valuation. If that option has an expiration of, say, 2017 (which if I am not mistaken all these had a 5 year expiration date...) Then that means there is strong indication that at or before 2017 we will have a company valuation of 43B (although at this rate it will happen before that)

 

[DaveT]

Elon will get options when market cap of TSLA reach 43 billion usd. We are only at 32.7 billion right now. TSLA is severely underpriced.

Wow, rough calculation puts that at a share price of 345!

Is that really what the next threshold is? Do you know what the expiration date is for those options before they become worthless?

Please read through the Elon Musk ceo incentive plan in Tesla's filings. It's basically 10 tranches (with a 10 year expiration), with each tranche having its own operational milestone and market cap milestone ($4 billion higher than the previous tranche). The final tranche does have a $43 billion market cap requirement but it has it's own operational milestone as well, and each tranche can be fulfilled on its own (meaning the final tranche doesn't need to be fulfilled) to receive 1/10 of the stock options for each tranche. $43 billion market cap is basically meaningless for the stock price/movement.

 

[Causalien]

Why isn't he a technical event? That would be an execution of stock options which would increase his stake in the company and make him richer. Just like he is pushing for the release of the Model X Alpha and Beta because there are stock options tied to that happening, and it has to happen within a certain timeframe or they expire and he doesn't get them. Meaning he has pressure to make these things happen BEFORE that expiration date. So that is why knowing what that date is will tell you when you can expect that kind of valuation. If that option has an expiration of, say, 2017 (which if I am not mistaken all these had a 5 year expiration date...) Then that means there is strong indication that at or before 2017 we will have a company valuation of 43B (although at this rate it will happen before that)

Stocks from company treasure. Which means uncirculated stock. Which means it didn't pass through the tape and hence not possible to do technical analysis on it. The only way I can see to make it a technical event is if the company has zero stock left in treasury and is forced to buy from open market or issue new stock. It's equivalent to the board of director of intel saying:"we want our stock price to be $400 in two years."

 

[Zaxxon]

Wow, rough calculation puts that at a share price of 345!

Is that really what the next threshold is? Do you know what the expiration date is for those options before they become worthless?

No expiration is mentioned. From page 21 of the 2Q2014 10-Q:

2012 CEO Grant

In August 2012, our Board of Directors granted 5,274,901 stock options to our CEO (2012 CEO Grant). The 2012 CEO Grant consists of
ten vesting tranches with a vesting schedule based entirely on the attainment of both performance conditions and market conditions, assuming
continued employment and service to us through each vesting date.

Each of the ten vesting tranches requires a combination of one of the ten pre-determined performance milestones and an incremental
increase in our market capitalization of $4.0 billion, as compared to the initial market capitalization of $3.2 billion measured at the time of the
2012 CEO Grant.

As of June 30, 2014, the market conditions for four vesting tranches were achieved and the following four performance milestones were
considered probable of achievement:

• Successful completion of the Model X Engineering Prototype (Alpha);

• Successful completion of the Model X Vehicle Prototype (Beta);
• Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle; and
• Successful completion of the Gen III Engineering Prototype (Alpha).


None of the stock options granted under the 2012 CEO Grant have vested thus far as the performance milestones have not yet been
achieved as of June 30, 2014 . However, as the above four performance milestones were considered probable of achievement, we recorded stockbased compensation expense of $4.4 million and $14.4 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2014, respectively. We recorded stock-based compensation expense of $4.3 million and $5.2 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2013, respectively.

Additionally, no cash compensation has been received by our CEO for his services to the company.

 

[Lump]

Hold off buying puts, Lump! In fact you might need to roll these covered calls that you've sold...:wink:

We have a new 12-18 month PT of $385 from Global Equities Research. (previous PT $225 - updated 2/5/2014)

According to the streetinsider.com digest, the factory doing just fine with the new production line ramp-up: is about at 800 cars/week now, should hit 1000 by the end of this quarter. Oh, and BTW, it's potential production capacity is 3,000 cars a week!

There are quite a few pieces of other very interesting information in this digest:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...p+Dive+Into+Tesla+(TSLA)+Factory/9778304.html

That Global Equities Research report last Sunday night saved me, I was prepared to buy puts the following morning & after this past week trading I would have lost 40% on those positions .

 

[Zzzz...]

Wow, rough calculation puts that at a share price of 345!

Is that really what the next threshold is? Do you know what the expiration date is for those options before they become worthless?

Well, it is not 43 billion, but 43.2 billion $$$. Tesla market cap was 3.2 billion when plan was approved, so it was like, "Hey Mr. Musk, could you add 40 billion on top of current valuation?" And I doubt anyone but Elon was optimistic enough to consider such addition to be part of plausible reality. Yet we almost there.

Well there are other requirements to get full payout, with 300,000 units annual production rate and 30% gross margins being hardest to meet.

And yes, you are right, there is a deadline, Tesla only got up until 2022 for marketcap and other requirements to meet. But Elon will make most of the options regardless, first one was like doubling market cap to 6.4 billion lol... It just to max out all options TSLA should cost 43.2 billion.

Please read through the Elon Musk ceo incentive plan in Tesla's filings. It's basically 10 tranches (with a 10 year expiration), with each tranche having its own operational milestone and market cap milestone ($4 billion higher than the previous tranche). The final tranche does have a $43 billion market cap requirement but it has it's own operational milestone as well, and each tranche can be fulfilled on its own (meaning the final tranche doesn't need to be fulfilled) to receive 1/10 of the stock options for each tranche. $43 billion market cap is basically meaningless for the stock price/movement.

Gosh, I was half joking, half sarcastic and half serious when wrote QUOTE: "Elon will get options when market cap of TSLA reach 43 billion usd. We are only at 32.7 billion right now. TSLA is severely underpriced." You took quote above too seriously.