Ctrl + F "TSLA"
Alright, here is some discussion. If you want to DISCUSS, and not flame then I'm all ears.
ASSUMPTION: as of Q1 2014, Tesla is not changed fundamentally from Q3 2013, its goals, scope, and guidance have been increased, but it still does the same thing, make and sell Model S's. Merely promising to do something isn't reason for being worth 2X as much, ala Q4 2013.
Now, ignoring the cheerleading, ignoring the "you just don't understand the company" part, TSLA in Q3 was capable of moving from $171.9 to $137.9 in 3 days of trading under very similar circumstances. That's a 20% drop overall , starting from way lower than where we are starting from now, and that's ignoring the down days before the earnings report.
Not only this, but all "momentum" stocks are taking a beating at the moment, and that the market overall has more downward pressure than it did in Q3 2013.
Now if, like me, you would have considered 171 to be a
slightly overweight price in Q3 2013, what would you consider 194 in Q1 2014? Now what, if it was already capable of moving 20% pretty easily BEFORE the fire stories, will TSLA do at a
more overweight price under the
same circumstances?
Sure we can talk about support levels all we want, but relying on the 200MA is basically a mathematical way of saying "It was high in the past, surely that means it can't go down from here?!", because we are just taking the average of the past closes, and comparing that to today's price. If Q4's prices were unjustified, then how is taking a moving average, including Q4's prices, correct?
So yeah, I think that for the next 2 days, buying puts, or shorting TSLA is a fairly safe bet, when you've collected on those, AND we have no additional bad press releases (not likely), then go back to the usual.