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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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#2,921
Twiddler said:
Still, 20% decline over a lack of news? Really??
Click to expand...
Good point, but as has been said before, TSLA tracks the general market with an amplifying factor (NASDAQ has been drifting down, too). Moreover, I think all the silliness about demand weakening had some effect, too.

This picture, which I've been staring at all week, is why I think the main trend is due to the market at large.

tsla_nasdaq.png


The sell-off at the beginning was probably the UBS report.

Also, the NASDAQ-TSLA correlation graph for the last 5 days seems to support the tracking of NASDAQ with an amplification factor theory:

tsla_nasdaq.png
 
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#2,923
RSI has finally sunk below 30 for the first time since this all started, so not too bad a time. I fortunately nailed that double top and sold all of my short term stuff in the 260s... Only to start buying back in the 240s thinking simple consolidation, then a lot more after we bounced off of $230 a few times. Now, all of my gains from the run over $200 are gone and I am quite uncomfortably exposed :(
 
#2,924
Sooo since we're at 211 can we pretend this was just a gap filling from 210 up? Isn't that where the gap up started, around 210 or so? I think it was like 210->218->240 or something.

I know it's all just nasdaq and I tend to think TA is pretty much nonsense (though nonsense a lot of people subscribe to can make it not-nonsense :-/), but at least this way I can feel good for the rest of the day before it goes down again tomorrow, haha.
 
#2,925
FANGO said:
Sooo since we're at 211 can we pretend this was just a gap filling from 210 up? Isn't that where the gap up started, around 210 or so? I think it was like 210->218->240 or something.

I know it's all just nasdaq and I tend to think TA is pretty much nonsense (though nonsense a lot of people subscribe to can make it not-nonsense :-/), but at least this way I can feel good for the rest of the day before it goes down again tomorrow, haha.
Click to expand...

Well that would be supported by the drop to 210 the other day - looks like the level that we are set to test as soon as today. I don't know which is worse - the hemorrhage, or the green, potentially life-saving clot that forms at the open every morning only to give way to more hemorrhage
 
#2,926
Over the last month of March, TSLA had a strong downward trend reminiscent of November's trend, minus the fires. It seems that TSLA has been moving in conjunction with NASDAQ on the lack of news. But I think that this trend is over, and it is rally time for TSLA. I have 6 reasons for this hypothesis:

1. Norwegian/European blowout sales-According to this article (http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2...y-blowing-records-out-of-the-water-this-march), Norway is having a record Model S registration month, as the registrations have passed 1000 in March, compared with a previous record of 553. Here are numbers of European and Norwegian sales over the last 6 months:

European Deliveries.png


The % of European deliveries that were in Norway have floated around 45% (excluding Feb). The average over the last 6 months was 51.6%, and the out of the ordinary value is ~75%. Given these numbers, if we assume that there are 1200 deliveries in Norway in March, the total European deliveries would be between 1600-2326-2667 (75%,51.6%,45%). If we take the lowest number and add up the quarterly deliveries in Europe for Q1, we would get 2462 deliveries. If we assume that US/Canada deliveries stay the same as last quarter (4296), then we will get a total of 6,758 cars delivered in Q1 and (add 1,000 in transit) 7,758 cars produced, which is 646.5 cars per week.

2. Stock Oversold, touching 50 day exponential moving average, touching bottom of Bollinger Bands, and low volume- I am not going to talk about this in detail, I will just leave this chart here. https://www.tradingview.com/x/X40l6xri/
TSLA.png


3. China visit and demand announcement?- Musk said that will be traveling to China in late March. However, this may be postponed to early April, which is still not far from now. http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ossible-top-market-for-tesla-beyond-model-s-1

4. Right hand drive 1st delivery- Elon Musk has said that right-hand drive Model S will see it's first delivery in late March to a "high profile" person (Maybe also postponed to early April).
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/tesla-model-s-right-hand-drive-uk-518914 and http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-...-starts-soon-first-deliveries-in-uk-in-march/

5. Elon's Spring Break Cross-Country Trip- Musk has said that he will be taking a cross country trip with his family during spring break, which is in April. Musk will probably make an announcement about this soon.

6. NHTSA report (Might be postponed to next year)-The NHTSA typically takes 4 months to complete an investigation, and as of now, it has been more than 4 months. Tesla recently released version 5.9, which marks the return of automatic lowering at high speeds. This feature was originally taken out to reduce fire risk due to punctured batteries. This may be a hint that NHTSA has completely cleared them. At this point, this news is probably priced in for the most part, but it may contribute a little to the upcoming rally.
 
#2,927
32no said:
Over the last month of March, TSLA had a strong downward trend reminiscent of November's trend, minus the fires. It seems that TSLA has been moving in conjunction with NASDAQ on the lack of news. But I think that this trend is over, and it is rally time for TSLA. I have 6 reasons for this hypothesis:

Haha just saw your thread on Tradingview prior to seeing it here - nice work!
Click to expand...
 
#2,928
We touched some "golden ratio" as I recall last time. What's the equivalent this time? Though I guess it also depends on if it's a ratio off the high or off the difference between the previous ~$180 high point and most recent ~$260.
 
#2,929
ckessel said:
We touched some "golden ratio" as I recall last time. What's the equivalent this time? Though I guess it also depends on if it's a ratio off the high or off the difference between the previous ~$180 high point and most recent ~$260.
Click to expand...

Yes, I believe that it was Curt that pointed it out - was last fall when we hit something like 108-112 after the GS(?) downgrade
 
#2,930
ckessel said:
We touched some "golden ratio" as I recall last time. What's the equivalent this time? Though I guess it also depends on if it's a ratio off the high or off the difference between the previous ~$180 high point and most recent ~$260.
Click to expand...

On the previous strong downward trend, the stock rebounded at about $117, and $120.20 was the point at which the stock was 61.8% of it's all time high value ($194.50). 61.8% is the so called "Golden ratio".

If we assume that our first input is $0, and our second input is $265 (All time high), then the stock will be worth 61.8% of its ATH value when it hits $163.77. This is highly unlikely.

If we assume that our first input is $194.50 (the first all time high) and our second input is $265, then we get a difference of $70.50, and the golden ratio value would be $221.43.
 
#2,940
32no said:
On the previous strong downward trend, the stock rebounded at about $117, and $120.20 was the point at which the stock was 61.8% of it's all time high value ($194.50). 61.8% is the so called "Golden ratio".

If we assume that our first input is $0, and our second input is $265 (All time high), then the stock will be worth 61.8% of its ATH value when it hits $163.77. This is highly unlikely.

If we assume that our first input is $194.50 (the first all time high) and our second input is $265, then we get a difference of $70.50, and the golden ratio value would be $221.43.
Click to expand...

How about first input $117 and second input $265, so the golden ration value could be $208. I suspect TSLA might hit through $200 temporarily if market is really panic, but $195-$200 should be a very strong support.
 
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