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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Regarding the Northland note in the prior page. We could have guessed 6000 sales a month ago. I think all funds and smart investors knew that. But then DB puts out a triggering alert and things take off after two weeks of non-volatile sideways. I don't really buy either DB + Northland were the true catalysts. Something else caused yesterday morning's jump. Could there have been something that a group of companies planned to do to trigger a sharp shock to the system and break down some stop-losses of the big group of shorts? That is not a value move based on fundamentals but rather investment banking flexing muscles.
To my fellow Delawarean
et al.,If Tsla pulls back to 170 and we are in a high IV environment and are very confident that tsla will be above 200 in Jan 14, an example of a spread to buy would be a Dec 170/190 bull call spread for around $7 (I am basing the price of the spread based on current tsla stock price of 182.50 and a 170/190 dec spread which goes for 7.20 as I type). So risk is $7 for potential reward of $13 if tsla closes above $200 in dec. Once the spread gets to $14, sell 1/2 of the spread, and keep the other as a risk free trade.
Yes, that is correct, but I am in luv2b camp of buying options (ie risk a little for a potential to make a lot) rather than sell something for say $1 to have potential of buying it back for $10. However, many ways to skin a cat.
kevin99
Member
It was certainly another impressive 2-days surge, it feels like the mojo is back to TSLA.
Ironically this is the first day in the 2-3 weeks time frame that I didn't make money since my account has turned effectively short today. I was dealing with a tough situation of the short calls I sold, which didn't get closed because of $0.1 price difference in limit order I set. The end result is that I made the gain in early days of the week, but not that much the last 2 days. Overall the week is comparable to the stock itself so I can't complain much.
Ironically this is the first day in the 2-3 weeks time frame that I didn't make money since my account has turned effectively short today. I was dealing with a tough situation of the short calls I sold, which didn't get closed because of $0.1 price difference in limit order I set. The end result is that I made the gain in early days of the week, but not that much the last 2 days. Overall the week is comparable to the stock itself so I can't complain much.
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Yes. Also a good time to use vertical type strategies so your account don't get margin called when IV eventually dies down and the option you bought is worth less even if the actual stock price is higher. For TSLA. IV at 0.57 isn't really that high. However, I recommend anything above 0.4 to be handled by spreads due to the high cost of premium decay.
kevin99
Member
And talk about the two other names KNDI, SCTY I have, I feel stretched to just to devote enough time to take the opportunity market has given.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
It is amazing that quad witching + S&P rebalancing has no effect on TSLA stock. All that matters is TA levels and that channel.
IV still looks pretty low to me. It went from around 56 to 48 during the consolidation in the 160's range. 48 was the lowest two days ago and it's now around 51. It was in the 70's and 80's if I remember correctly before Q2. Is anyone else seeing the same thing? I'm thinking if it does drop next week, then IV won't be what holds me back from buying. On that note, it is possible to a good drop next week b/c there will be the whole debt ceiling battle. There already is a temporary bill to continue to fund the government but it's tied to defunding the affordable care act (Obamacare). And we know that's not going to happen so this will be a battle all next week and probably won't be solved till the last day (Sept 30). And even that is a best case scenario. Worse case is a gov shut down. So I don't know if there will be any catalyst next week.
I'm also starting to think that the best Q3 play is to play the run up to Q3. If we're in the 190's before ER then we might not have much room to continue. However, if we say in the 170's range then that's a different story. Next week will be really important IMO.
I'm also starting to think that the best Q3 play is to play the run up to Q3. If we're in the 190's before ER then we might not have much room to continue. However, if we say in the 170's range then that's a different story. Next week will be really important IMO.
German car magazine just gave great review to Model S. Maybe we'll get more German investors?
Tesla Model S Outperforms Mercedes-Benz S500 and BMW 750Li in German Test Drive Review
Tesla Model S Outperforms Mercedes-Benz S500 and BMW 750Li in German Test Drive Review
I disagree with you. It was the DB + Northland + Autopilot that caused the spike in TSLA. That is how the stock market works. If DB doesn't put out that report, we would still be sitting at or under $170 today.
I have been saying this for days, that there was a lot of upward pressure on the stock and you can tell that it was ready to take off. All it needed was a catalyst to get this rally started, and DB was that catalyst.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Norse
Active Member
Hopefully Tesla will start making cars in China soon, this incentive is only until 2015, but it was a really positive one for Electric and hybrid cars.
But this just shows what I have been saying about more nations that will follow Norway and the US to support the EV industry.
When even China does it, anybody can.
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release...policy-for-new-energy-vehicles-20130919-00322
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Actually - given China's dictatorial rulers and strong economy - it is much easier to do in China than in a lot of other places.
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