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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
- Status
Barclays Downgrade, based on valution, not fundamentals, very bullish long term
Here are some snippets:
Compelling upside potential, but fairly
valued; Downgrade to Equal Weight
Tesla shares have exceeded what we view as a fair value reflecting uncertainty
about Tesla’s ability to evolve into a mass market manufacturer. Setting aside
momentum and short-covering technicals, we believe the best way to value Tesla stock
is on a probabilistic approach, which we think recognizes the risks inherent in the
company’s ramp-up, as well as the option value of potentially becoming a large, massmarket
automaker. Whereas we previously saw upside to the stock price with this
approach, we now move our rating to Equal Weight. We believe the current stock
valuation reflects a great likelihood that Tesla successfully becomes a mass market
OEM, and all the more so that it will be successful in executing its Gen III product. We
caution uncertainty exists for both events, particularly the path of becoming a mass
market player.
Although we are downgrading Tesla, we are raising our price target to $141 from
$90 based on our probabilistic approach. This value assigns a better than 50%
probability of breaking into the mass affluent Gen III market as well as some ability to
become a true mass market automaker.
In the near term though, we would not be surprised to see momentum generate a
positive stock return and the stock to trade close to a $200 range; we see upside to
$279 assuming mass market success. The bull argument for the stock could be that
the CEO, Elon Musk, is the next Henry Ford – i.e. mass market success would be
assured. The 2Q print strengthened this case as demand trends remained strong and
clear progress was made on gross margins, providing Tesla with a stronger track record
and better credibility. Moreover, we see upside for the stock to $279 assuming nearperfect
success as a mass market OEM, and without using any present value discount.
Here are some snippets:
Compelling upside potential, but fairly
valued; Downgrade to Equal Weight
Tesla shares have exceeded what we view as a fair value reflecting uncertainty
about Tesla’s ability to evolve into a mass market manufacturer. Setting aside
momentum and short-covering technicals, we believe the best way to value Tesla stock
is on a probabilistic approach, which we think recognizes the risks inherent in the
company’s ramp-up, as well as the option value of potentially becoming a large, massmarket
automaker. Whereas we previously saw upside to the stock price with this
approach, we now move our rating to Equal Weight. We believe the current stock
valuation reflects a great likelihood that Tesla successfully becomes a mass market
OEM, and all the more so that it will be successful in executing its Gen III product. We
caution uncertainty exists for both events, particularly the path of becoming a mass
market player.
Although we are downgrading Tesla, we are raising our price target to $141 from
$90 based on our probabilistic approach. This value assigns a better than 50%
probability of breaking into the mass affluent Gen III market as well as some ability to
become a true mass market automaker.
In the near term though, we would not be surprised to see momentum generate a
positive stock return and the stock to trade close to a $200 range; we see upside to
$279 assuming mass market success. The bull argument for the stock could be that
the CEO, Elon Musk, is the next Henry Ford – i.e. mass market success would be
assured. The 2Q print strengthened this case as demand trends remained strong and
clear progress was made on gross margins, providing Tesla with a stronger track record
and better credibility. Moreover, we see upside for the stock to $279 assuming nearperfect
success as a mass market OEM, and without using any present value discount.
deonb
Active Member
May 9th chart, courtesy of TMC:
All times in PST:
6:34 Hit 70 in pre market but dropping now.
6:36 Weak hands are selling
6:40 Climbing up again. Supply seems to be limited.
6:46 Here comes 70. Don't anyone sell. Be long term! Squeeze them shorts!!
6:54 my guess for todays end: 74$
7:05 seems like it freezed around 69$
7:24 This is nerve racking! How is it staying so flat
7:28 no short squeeeze
7:29 We definitely need a bounce.
7:30 Looks like there have been additional short sellers driving the price down a bit.
7:30 Shorts winning the battle.
7:31 Indeed, dropping like a stone.
7:31 No buyers. Shorts are sitting tight, longs are already loaded. This is where one needs a stragegy besides "waiting for the short squeeze".
7:36 Here we go! Liftoff!
7:40 66$ safe
7:40 Don't get too excited, we still have $6 to cover before we can get above the AH high of $72/share and get into painful territory for the shorts.
7:41 Volume is incredible!! We are looking at 15% of the shares that will change hands just today!!
7:46 next stage 67$
7:50 Your right!
8:18 Goldman downshifts to neutral. The stock has skyrocketed 110% since it put a buy rating on the shares Jan. 17. Goldman sets new 6-month target of $61.
8:20 Ha, blasting through 67 ...
8:22 Agreed. Some tosk are just worth more then the company is, and that is how tesla was and always will be. nice to see $67 finally broken. can i get a $68?
8:29 There... You insisted. Can we now talk about getting my $70's in the money please?
8:30 Why yes sir, we can.
8:49 There goes $69 (again).
8:69 Heh, just saw a trade happen at $70, we are winning the tug-of-war, but it's close.
9:05 Broke $70! lets see that skyrocket!
9:30 bull is bucking over 70 again looking for new highs............. irresistible momentum gathering! all-aboard.... this train has left the station!
9:34 Come-on lets get through $71
9:36 You have been heard
9:40 Keeping the faith and ploughed a bit more in at 70.23. Nice to see 71+ now but, am in for the squeeze with Elon's announcement.
10:19 Over $72 now!
10:33 We have broken $73. C'mon $75 before the close.
10:37 $74, holly hell she is picking up speed
11:01 We may have hit a ceiling at $75. Still seems like my prediction of $74 @ close will be accurate. Doesn't matter if we close at $74 or $75 or $76, with a 31% run-up in the stock price, many more people will be getting margin calls tomorrow morning and be forced to cover. Its going to be a spectacular friday morning.
11:05 looks like she is going to come back down a bit before close. usually what i see with TSLA stock the past few months. if its not up big at the very end it sinks slowly the last hour.
12:37 New all-time high: $75.54
12:56 What is going on at the end of the day? I hate to use the word "tank" but wow....
1:02 Weak hands were taking profits. Many may have been day traders.
Volume dried up after the first few minutes, now I think we're starting to see shorts covering. To reiterate old advice: Don't sell! I don't think it'll be the epic squeeze we saw before, but there's plenty of profit in a small squeeze.
Wow, nice. Did you really pull that from the this thread? What a bunch of scared whiners we were
ROFL that "transcript" is so funny!!! OMG we are so comedic...
kevin99
Member
Thanks austinEV.
If we could overlay the current hourly chart on to q1, that will be interesting to see. Someone could write a software to provide that on real time basis.
This is my theory as well. Let the profit takers sell and then we might see another slow and steady climb.
Hi All,
Just enjoying watching my calls go up and down today
I've been a frustrated investors of TSLA, almost got in at the IPO, really appreciated the ups but got out (way) too early...I was scared of a strong pullback.
I should have listened to my "instinct": this is a great company, run by an amazing CEO with a fantastic product!
Anyway, got in with a few calls to make it more interesting!
I test drove the P85 two days ago and find it amazing, maybe just not as confortable as a Merc or BMW, not as many gadgets, but an impressive car!
Hope I can biy it with the product of those investments!
Today I opened my Mac and Spotify offered me spontaneously to listen to a track that I had not listend for 15 years at least: Electricity from OMD!!! What a sign)))
Then I kept on listening to the album, and while nervously looking at the opening, in the background, there was "Tesla Girls" !!! I had never heard that song before))
Just enjoying watching my calls go up and down today
I've been a frustrated investors of TSLA, almost got in at the IPO, really appreciated the ups but got out (way) too early...I was scared of a strong pullback.
I should have listened to my "instinct": this is a great company, run by an amazing CEO with a fantastic product!
Anyway, got in with a few calls to make it more interesting!
I test drove the P85 two days ago and find it amazing, maybe just not as confortable as a Merc or BMW, not as many gadgets, but an impressive car!
Hope I can biy it with the product of those investments!
Today I opened my Mac and Spotify offered me spontaneously to listen to a track that I had not listend for 15 years at least: Electricity from OMD!!! What a sign
)))Then I kept on listening to the album, and while nervously looking at the opening, in the background, there was "Tesla Girls" !!! I had never heard that song before
))
deonb
Active Member
Could be a good thing. It removes the temptation of selling them before they're in the money
.I still don't know that we've seen or will see a squeeze. A squeeze rockets up then comes back down. We seem to rocket up to a new level and then long term optimism keeps it there. Well, at least that was the case after Q1. The shorts obviously got hurt, but it didn't seem to create a temporary spike.
That said, if it does spike there's got to be a sell point even if I'm long. I just have no idea what it'd be. 4 months ago I had these "crazy go nuts" sell point triggers of 120/140/160. Yea, canceled those a while back.
Hey Guys,
Long time passive observer (sounds better than lurker). Been long since $41 but unfortunately only with a very small position. Hoping to build my position on the dips since I can't trade options in my account - probably for my own good. Long is more than a position with TSLA, its a belief. It's a pleasure to be in the company of like minded people and thanks to all for the great info.
Long time passive observer (sounds better than lurker). Been long since $41 but unfortunately only with a very small position. Hoping to build my position on the dips since I can't trade options in my account - probably for my own good. Long is more than a position with TSLA, its a belief. It's a pleasure to be in the company of like minded people and thanks to all for the great info.
Thats the one quote I have shaped and formed my entire investing philosophy around! And it has worked out extremely well for me, Thank u mr Buffet
InTheShadows
Active Member
kevin99
Member
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements
Wow I thought you guys were joking about $200, u did put that to test?
To go after this kind of Otm calls, you have to be impeccable in timing, and incredibly lucky, or truly know something that nobody else know.
I do know someone bought $.14 call in Q1, and ride it all the way up to $14. He must be. reading this.
But if that is your goal, You're bound to lose all your money. Those feats can not be repeated.
Wow I thought you guys were joking about $200, u did put that to test?
To go after this kind of Otm calls, you have to be impeccable in timing, and incredibly lucky, or truly know something that nobody else know.
I do know someone bought $.14 call in Q1, and ride it all the way up to $14. He must be
. reading this. But if that is your goal, You're bound to lose all your money. Those feats can not be repeated.
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