Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[fjm9898]

Nice play Destroid.

I might have to shuffle some things around too to grab up some TSLA if push comes to shove. Definitely need to do it quick before the premiums get to outrageous before Q2 report.

 

[toastypasta]

Does anyone have a portfolio made up exclusively of TSLA options? If so, what strikes and expiration do you have? I currently have 100% in Tsla Sept 115s bought awhile back for around 10.65. Contemplating whether it would be prudent to hold through earnings or roll prior to earnings to jan 14 or jan 15. Any thoughts would be appreciated! Thanks.

I've only been playing options with TSLA since a few months back.
currently only hold August $150 calls and Jan 2015 $135 calls.

 

[maekuz]

A few thousand sept calls with strikes of 160 and 170
(and $TSLA-Stock).

EDIT: And some August $95 puts as a hedge.

 

[sleepyhead]

A few thousand sept calls with strikes of 160 and 170
(and $TSLA-Stock).

EDIT: And some August $95 puts as a hedge.

Why Sept and not August?

When you say a few thousand, do you mean a few thousand contracts?

 

[vfx]

They don't have to study anything. I'm sure Tesla would be willing to license their drivetrain technology to GM, for a price....

Elon's tweet was funny (I laughed twice) but it may have been better to tweet something like, "GM's study might find them planning to buy Tesla's drivetrain."

 

[Soundart]

I took advantage of it and bought some more SOL at $4.12. Already back up above $4.25

These are the opportunities you need to take advantage of as an investor. SOL just ran up 100% in a month. It has corrected almost 20% since yesterday morning, and since my investment thesis on SOL has not changed I quickly scooped up a few thousand more shares. People will take profits after a 100% run up in a stock. Doesn't mean that the rally is over. If the stock goes below $4, I will buy even more.

Sleepyhead -- Not to take this off topic, but I've been a (relatively) long-time holder of SOL. Bought at ~$3, rode it all the way up to ~$12, then back down to $3, bought more, rode it down even more, bought more, and now it's finally starting to come back. Just curious what your general investment thesis is/was on SOL?... My general thesis was that solar is inevitable and that I wanted to invest in Chinese solar vs US solar because China wouldn't face the internal politics creating headwinds for solar that the US does. Having been to China, I figured solar was even more urgently needed there, and if the gov deemed it necessary, it would happen. Then I did research, and landed on SOL. I felt like a genius at first when it ran up to $12, then like an idiot for being greedy when I didn't sell and it plummeted back down.

Just curious what your general investment thesis on SOL was. Thanks.

 

[fjm9898]

Soundart. look in the SolarCity investors thread. He talks in great detail about in the last few pages.

 

[maekuz]

Why Sept and not August?

When you say a few thousand, do you mean a few thousand contracts?

I was looking for a high omega and ended up with these calls. A few thousand contracts.

 

[sleepyhead]

Sleepyhead -- Not to take this off topic, but I've been a (relatively) long-time holder of SOL. Bought at ~$3, rode it all the way up to ~$12, then back down to $3, bought more, rode it down even more, bought more, and now it's finally starting to come back. Just curious what your general investment thesis is/was on SOL?... My general thesis was that solar is inevitable and that I wanted to invest in Chinese solar vs US solar because China wouldn't face the internal politics creating headwinds for solar that the US does. Having been to China, I figured solar was even more urgently needed there, and if the gov deemed it necessary, it would happen. Then I did research, and landed on SOL. I felt like a genius at first when it ran up to $12, then like an idiot for being greedy when I didn't sell and it plummeted back down.

Just curious what your general investment thesis on SOL was. Thanks.

Go to the "Solar City Investor Thread" and you will see why now is a good time to buy SOL. You can go back about 10 or 15 pages and see my write up on the Solar Industry. Basically SOL is a good buy now, because:

1. Preannounced earnings a couple of weeks ago, 10%-20% better than guidance.
2. Gross margins improving
3. Have own Poly Plant and the recent tariffs will benefit SOL.
4. 2nd in line to return to profitabiliyt after CSIQ (of all Chinese firms)
5. Better balance sheet than most Chinese.
6. Preannouncement Press Release also hinted at strong second half that nobody picked up on. Expect good guidance for H2 during Q2 conference call.
7. Priced to fail, but will not fail.
8. If it can earn $1/share (only requires 5% net profit margin) next year it will be a 10 bagger!
9. If EU and China settle on minimum selling price of 0.55 euro cents then it will mean higher margins for SOL, and they get half their business from Europe.

 

[Soundart]

Thanks, Sleepyhead and FJM9898. Appreciate the quick write up here, and I will dig in under Solar City page. I am so invested in solar directly and indirectly (and have taken a huge bath), that I foolishly didn't even consider Solar City. Ordinarily, that would have been right up my alley. Now, given Solar City's run up, it's ordinarily too painful for me to even read that thread.

 

[DaveT]

I was looking for a high omega and ended up with these calls. A few thousand contracts.

Just to clarify you have a few thousand contracts (each contract controls 100 shares), so that controlling 200,000-300,000 shares. You've got $400k-600k riding on your Sept calls (based on current price)?

Or do you mean controlling 2000-3000 shares (ie, 20-30 contracts) with about $4-6k riding on them (based on current price)?

 

[toastypasta]

Would be lovely to end up even or even green on the day

 

[fjm9898]

dollar down appears to be the final call

 

[maekuz]

Just to clarify you have a few thousand contracts (each contract controls 100 shares), so that controlling 200,000-300,000 shares. You've got $400k-600k riding on your Sept calls (based on current price)?

Or do you mean controlling 2000-3000 shares (ie, 20-30 contracts) with about $4-6k riding on them (based on current price)?

No, we are talking about different types of calls. I am sorry for the mix-up. The calls i bought are paying cash only if the stock is above the strike. I got about $5000 riding on them. The idea is to triple this money by aug 8.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA short interest declined a moderate amount from 6/28 to 7/15.

Settlement Date	Short Interest	Avg Daily Share Volume	Days To Cover
7/15/2013	18,491,029	8,684,647	2.129163
6/28/2013	19,815,686	8,152,764	2.430548
6/14/2013	19,929,119	10,040,777	1.984818
5/31/2013	18,584,615	15,751,250	1.179882

 

[dha]

TSLA short interest declined a small amount from 6/28 to 7/15.

Settlement Date	Short Interest	Avg Daily Share Volume	Days To Cover
7/15/2013	18,491,029	8,684,647	2.129163
6/28/2013	19,815,686	8,152,764	2.430548
6/14/2013	19,929,119	10,040,777	1.984818
5/31/2013	18,584,615	15,751,250	1.179882

Curt, the settlement date for those short figures is the 15th, one day before the GS report and subsequent 14% plunge. Do you think short interest has increased significantly since the 15th?

 

[ShortSlaver]

I feel like if tomorrow is a bit down like today and possibly dips early, it will be time to pick up AUG calls.

I think I'm going to go for 130's. Anyone else planning option strategies?

 

[fjm9898]

I bought some Aug $150 calls for $1.75 today
I also picked up some Jan14 $190s just for fun.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I feel like if tomorrow is a bit down like today and possibly dips early, it will be time to pick up AUG calls.

I think I'm going to go for 130's. Anyone else planning option strategies?

Yeah, I'm thinking 130 is the best price point for calls. I'm hesitant to buy them yet as still 2 weeks until the earnings report and after the GS dip things haven't seemed very strong?

I think I'll sit out some theta decay and risk missing some pre earnings runup.

 

[ppl]

I bought some Aug $150 calls for $1.75 today
I also picked up some Jan14 $190s just for fun.

March 14 calls listed. Premium over jan 14 not much more but you get an exra qtr report in