Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[hoang51]

That is true. Such news is just rehash of what has been said already. It won't offer the stock much stability.

 

[justthateasy]

Can you post a pic? The extent of my charting is parallel lines. Actually, its kinda all it is, but it works for me. Anyways, can you post a pic of said "bear pennant". Thanks!

RobotGrease, I was out the rest of the day but I managed to do this quickly when I got home a little while ago. This isn't my normal chart so pardon the sloppiness.

Check out this crash course on bear pennants.


TSLA:

AMZN:

Basic pennant patterns:

 

[Raffy.Roma]

@justthateasy

You mean that also if the stock is falling we have a bullish flag?

I think that I understood. It's the other way around. A bearish flag.

 

[justthateasy]

@justthateasy

You mean that also if the stock is falling we have a bullish flag?

Bullish patterns are valid only in an uptrend. For now, ignore the bullish patterns that were also posted because TSLA is in an overall downtrend so only bearish patterns apply. Once TSLA reverses to the upside and establishes an upward channel, that's when the bullish patterns apply.

 

[InTheShadows]

Considering Elon's blog post I think we may have hit the bottom yesterday.

The Mission of Tesla | Blog | Tesla Motors

Adjusted the ride height to be higher

Full user control in January

Will include accidental car fires in their warranty coverage.

The blog is extremely well written and I'm guessing that we will gap up today.

Can a short squeeze happen while there is a short restriction from yesterday's drop?

 

[FANGO]

Can a short squeeze happen while there is a short restriction from yesterday's drop?

A short squeeze is what happens when there is a cascade of people covering their shorts, thus buying up the stock and raising the price. I don't believe a short sale restriction blocks the covering of shorts, that seems like it would cause all kinds of problems if it did. So a short squeeze could still happen during a short restriction, I suppose.

That said, I think it's pretty optimistic to think that there will be a proper squeeze tomorrow, or that the market, in it's current insane state, will even take this blog post positively (even though they should). Given that we're hovering around 3% down in Germany right now (yes, tiny volume (17k), different market, take with mountain of salt, etc.), you never know how the market, especially here in bizarro-world where good news is bad, will react.

 

[Fast Laner]

Has TESLA very well posted this blog at that time as the price per share arrived where it is now?

If so i am disappointed!

 

[mershaw2001]

of course a squeeze can happen while there is a restriction, however, i think the one day delay in that response killed the stock's momentum completely. Even with this reply, which is excellent, too many people sold today (23 million) to put upward momentum on the stock.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

of course a squeeze can happen while there is a restriction, however, i think the one day delay in that response killed the stock's momentum completely. Even with this reply, which is excellent, too many people sold today (23 million) to put upward momentum on the stock.

I agree that if this were indeed posted on Sunday evening or early Monday morning we'd not have had the slaughterhouse we had yesterday. If this will be enough to reverse is a wait-and-see situation because to be fair I can't tell I'd love of course if it did and we'd get back to $140's by Friday, but ...

 

[tray loader]

There's a nuance to smart PR, and it requires that you have smart spokespeople at the front line empowered to comment without running everything up and down the flagpole. Tesla knew about fire #1 before it was posted to Youtube or made the news at Jalopnic. They could have announced proactively that they had their first fire, and that they were sending a team to Washington State to investigate. At that time they could have stated that there were no injuries. While that disclosure would have startled investors, it would have also let investors know that they were in charge and were taking proactive steps to learn what happened. It would have given the media the meat they needed to tell the first round of stories. It would have neutered 90% of the panic and speculation that set in. Instead, Tesla was quiet. While I agree it's great to get your facts collected, in this day and age of hyper-rapid news cycles, it's better to tell people what you know, what you don't yet know, your plan to learn what you don't know, and your plan to share what you learn. Tesla could have done this with each fire.

With the industrial accident last week, stories were getting picked up that spread the rumor that there was a fire at the Tesla factory. It took nearly an hour before spokespeople set the record straight. Don't you think they would have known within two minutes if their factory was on fire? Within minutes of the accident, the PR team should have known that it wasn't a fire, and the could have proactively shared that with Reuters or Bloomberg. They also could have confirmed there was an accident, and that their primary focus now was on the well-being and care for their employees, and that they'd have further comment later following a thorough investigation.

For any company, it's always a tough decision about what you disclose and when. When you're the first to tell people of your mistakes, it sucks the negativity out of the mistake. It puts people at ease that you're not hiding anything. If you stay honest and always keep the best interests of your customers in mind, you'll almost always make the right decision.

100% correct.You cannot own the news if You always run AFTER the public formed it´s opinion.That´s the opposite of preserving a brand.
You literally throw your brand to the critics, which is happening now.
A brand is much more than a bunch of technical facts and pure engineering. It´s a feel.And this is now brutally damaged by laxity.
5 missed chances to rebuild confidence (3 fires, factory accident, air suspension)
Instead they now have a warfield where they can only react.
Only loose.
The impression is there, the owners on their toes.

For me the strangest thing was, that Elon referred to the recall last year.Their proactive recall for a almost neglectible mini issue, and reasoned that for caring.
If the patents show an application for a potentially reinforced bottom in spring 2012 (!), long after the finalisation of the first gen. Model S.
A reinforced bottom which might have slashed the range.
A reinforced bottom after You fired the two central engineers some months before, the bigger picture begins to form.

 

[justthateasy]

TSLA is down to 118 in premarket trading. It looks like it's going to open with a gap down and probably sell off more. The bear pennant is in full effect and it's a long way until the distance of the flag pole gets filled.

 

[vgrinshpun]

100% correct.You cannot own the news if You always run AFTER the public formed it´s opinion.That´s the opposite of preserving a brand.
You literally throw your brand to the critics, which is happening now.
A brand is much more than a bunch of technical facts and pure engineering. It´s a feel.And this is now brutally damaged by laxity.
5 missed chances to rebuild confidence (3 fires, factory accident, air suspension)
Instead they now have a warfield where they can only react.
Only loose.
The impression is there, the owners on their toes.

For me the strangest thing was, that Elon referred to the recall last year.Their proactive recall for a almost neglectible mini issue, and reasoned that for caring.
If the patents show an application for a potentially reinforced bottom in spring 2012 (!), long after the finalisation of the first gen. Model S.
A reinforced bottom which might have slashed the range.
A reinforced bottom after You fired the two central engineers some months before, the bigger picture begins to form.

The reinforced bottom IS part of every Model S manufactured by Tesla.

 

[Noble Ninja]

The Mission of Tesla | Blog | Tesla Motors

Glad to hear directly from Elon in his blog post about the recent overreaction. Like he says, we all should keep in mind the bigger picture:

"there is a larger issue at stake: if a false perception about the safety of electric cars is allowed to linger, it will delay the advent of sustainable transport and increase the risk of global climate change."

 

[FANGO]

TSLA is down to 118 in premarket trading. It looks like it's going to open with a gap down and probably sell off more. The bear pennant is in full effect and it's a long way until the distance of the flag pole gets filled.

Was down ~3.6% in Frankfurt and seems to be slowly inching up during pre market. I had an order for protective puts at market open but canceled it because I think there's a fair chance we go up at this rate. There's actually news today anyway, so if we can lose 10% on a day with no news surely we can gain some on a day with news? Or at least that would happen if we weren't in opposite world :-/

 

[Gtoffo]

Am i the first to post this? Elon's blog post is out.

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mission-tesla

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Am i the first to post this? Elon's blog post is out.

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mission-tesla

Nope, you're about third in this thread alone

 

[Gtoffo]

Nope, you're about third in this thread alone

Ok the poster before me posted as I was typing and I finally found the first poster after a few more page scans......oh well..... at least now everyone will see it :biggrin:

So now that Elon asked for it the NHTSA is officially investigating. Do we have any data on how long those probes usually last? It would be nice to play with the release of the results....

P.s. http://blogs.automotive.com/chevrolet-malibu-recall-faulty-ventilation-fire-risk-156447.html for the "new vehicles never burn down" crowd, this piece of news is from today. Spontaneous fire inside the cabins of the 2013 chevy malibu. Just to put things in perspective.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Anyway it looks like the TSHLA already gave a positive pre-assessment to the problem:

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on its website that its Office of Defects Investigation is aware of two incidents occurring on U.S. public highways in which Tesla vehicles caught fire after an undercarriage strike with metallic roadway debris. The agency added, "In each incident, the vehicle's battery monitoring system provided escalating visible and audible warnings, allowing the driver to execute a controlled stop and exit the vehicle before the battery emitted smoke and fire.

Now let's hope that the enquiries will be accomplished quickly. IMO the NHTSA will likely come to the conclusion that the Model S is a very safe car. In fact, as Elon pointed out, in the case of the second incident the Model S saved the life to people inside the cabin that on the contrary came out of the cabin without any injure at all.

 

[aznt1217]

Wow warranty even for fires. Elon is not playing around. That's like insurance basically

 

[justthateasy]

Was down ~3.6% in Frankfurt and seems to be slowly inching up during pre market. I had an order for protective puts at market open but canceled it because I think there's a fair chance we go up at this rate. There's actually news today anyway, so if we can lose 10% on a day with no news surely we can gain some on a day with news? Or at least that would happen if we weren't in opposite world :-/

It might have been down ~3.6% but now down ~4.8% on Nasdaq premarket just under 116.

I have a buy limit order set in the low 100s but I might have to go even lower at this rate.