Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[ppl]

Yep. I've learned to live with the volatility. I expect it. I'm very long term and I use the dips as buying opportunity. That being said, the GS PT was not fun. Anything above 120 going into earnings call is fine with me.

Expect a lot of volatity next week. Especially 24 hrs prior to report. Suspect people will take profits before. I didn't say right move but I have been ready with some cash to buy on dips next week

 

[Treker56]

Folks not sure what his source is but Phil LeBau just tweeted July sales 1,470 and YTD sales10,401. Lagging a little behind guidance,no?

<p><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Tesla&amp;src=hash">#Tesla</a> July sales total 1,470,..YTD U.S. sales total 10,401</p>&mdash; Phil LeBeau (@Lebeaucarnews) <a href="https://twitter.com/Lebeaucarnews/statuses/363031624226574336">August 1, 2013</a></blockquote>

 

[johnnydop]

 

[aznt1217]

Folks not sure what his source is but Phil LeBau just tweeted July sales 1,470 and YTD sales10,401. Lagging a little behind guidance,no?

<p><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Tesla&src=hash">#Tesla</a> July sales total 1,470,..YTD U.S. sales total 10,401</p>— Phil LeBeau (@Lebeaucarnews) <a href="https://twitter.com/Lebeaucarnews/statuses/363031624226574336">August 1, 2013</a></blockquote>

What a joke. Source is from MotorIntelligence, which is using Autodata estimates, which already were disputed a few weeks ago. Tesla does not publish its sales numbers.

Case in point: in the image below that July 2012 number should have been at least 10.

 

[Treker56]

phew! Thanks.

 

[aznt1217]

phew! Thanks.

Although I'd like to see the weak longs shaken out and shorts build their positions. Like Elon, I hate things that are factually wrong. I couldn't resist but I had to call this guy out on twitter to get his facts straight, disclose properly, and do his due diligence. It took me all but 5 minutes to find his source and I'm not a rocket scientist.

 

[Johan]

One more of these please

 

[Julian Cox]

Goldman Sachs is IMO an unsavory company that practices immoral market manipulation tactics.

One need only look at the Fabrice Tourre matter and the creation and sale of Abacus 2007-AC1 (clearly a massive conflict of interest and a fraud) to know what kind of people are in charge at GS.

This kind of shitpaper deal helped run the economy into a ditch.



If this is true, it's shameful.

If this is true, anything GS publishes is shitpaper, just like the trash they used to peddle.

For the record of this call:

"As a matter of fact it looks as though the slide (jitter) has bottomed regardless at around $108. In essence this GS article looks true to form a carefully crafted measure to lure shorts into the stock ahead of a
hail of Q2 analysts beats, thereby rewarding GS clients handsomely at the cost of the comparatively ill informed shorts and skeptics with another significant short-squeeze.
This is a significant buying opportunity for the well informed for double digit gains in the space of 7~10 days with very high levels of certainty attached."

7 days later if bought at $108: 20% gain to $130
10 days later if bought at $108: 26.8% gain to $137 (ATH)

 

[austinEV]

My friend just got an email asking if he would like to put down a deposit because options will be going up in price significantly after midnight tonight.
Interesting...

(he did a test drive but didn't put deposit down so sales guy emailed him)

Sooo, prices did not increase, correct? Can you confirm your friend was really told that? It isn't the most honest dealing if so.

 

[kevin99]

This is a significant buying opportunity for the well informed for double digit gains in the space of 7~10 days with very high levels of certainty attached."

7 days later if bought at $108: 20% gain to $130
10 days later if bought at $108: 26.8% gain to $137 (ATH)

Good call, Julian. No need for 7-10 days. My weekly call of $4 exits with half $8 and half $11 in 3 days, average of 150% gain in 3 days.

Just make sure you have buying power when GS rings the bell next time.

 

[NigelM]

Nigel can you please move my comment to the Q2 Celebrations thread? Thanks in advance.

Mod Note: post and related answers went here - Proposal-for-Q2-Celebration-and-beyond-Invitation-for-Julian-Cox!!!

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Sooo, prices did not increase, correct? Can you confirm your friend was really told that? It isn't the most honest dealing if so.

Orders which were "on-hold" prior to the previous price increase for 21" wheels and air suspension had an August 1st deadline to avoid that increase. Discussion over here: On-Hold-orders-subject-to-new-pricing-after-August-1st

Question mark over other confusion regarding delivery fees here: Model-S-Base-1-170-Price-Increase-8-1-13

 

[Citizen-T]

This bull is a monster. Get out the way!

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

This bull is a monster. Get out the way!

Yup! New intraday ATH!

 

[mitch672]

Interesting, the 52 Week low was a year ago. 52 week high today.

TESLA MOTORS INC (TSLA) As of: 08/02/2013, 10:48am

Last Trade [tick] 137.6800[+] Volume 2,431,015
Net Change 2.1300 52 Week High 137.8790 on 08/02/2013
Net Change % 1.57% 52 Week Low 26.7400 on 08/03/2012
Bid 137.6100 Ex. Dividend Date
Bid Size 2 Dividend Pay Date
Ask 137.6700 Dividend Rate 0.0000
Ask Size 1 P/E Ratio 0.0000
Bid Exchange NYSE ARCA Yield 0.0%
Ask Exchange NYSE ARCA Split Factor 0.00
Last Trade Exchange Direct Edge Holdings - EDGX (CTA) EPS -2.8300
Open 134.5900 Currency USD
Day High 137.8790 Primary Exchange NASDAQ-NMS
Day Low 133.6100 Stock Research (TSLA)
Get (TSLA) Snapshot Option Chain

Prev Close Price 135.5500
Prev Close Date 08/01/2013

 

[clmason]

Holding ATH into earnings. Feeling good about next week. Fingers crossed for all of us investors.

 

[Vger]

Not a hugely original thought, but I would say that more and more confidence in an ER beat is being baked into the stock price this week. With TSLA being the hottest buzz stock going, it is pretty hard to keep a noisy cat in the bag. This forum alone could account for a fair amount of "leakage." That said, I think there is still at least $10/share of potential "pop" upside still left in there.

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P.S. My multiple option positions presume there will still be a least a decent pop.

 

[Johan]

Not a hugely original thought, but I would say that more and more confidence in an ER beat is being baked into the stock price this week. With TSLA being the hottest buzz stock going, it is pretty hard to keep a noisy cat in the bag. This forum alone could account for a fair amount of "leakage." That said, I think there is still at least $10/share of potential "pop" upside still left in there.

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P.S. My multiple option positions presume there will still be a least a decent pop.

Yes, I have a feeling a lot of positive "surprise" upside is already priced in. I will probably take a lot of options profits off the table ahead of the call, but will wait until next week since I figure premiums will increase even at bit more even if the stock stays at the same levels as today due to a lot of demand for calls, esp. the Aug and Sept 150, 160 and 170's.

Took a bit of profit just now, just to have some cash on hand in case there is a drop before the call.

One more interesting thing to note: Some Aug puts bought two weeks ago as hedge/insurance when the stock was in the low 130's have now gone up even with the stock at 137.54... this too is due to increased demands for also puts as we are nearing the call. So my point is there is a lot of demand for both puts and calls right now, and the option premiums could deflate badly after the call even if the stock price rises a lot.

 

[Vger]

One more interesting thing to note: Some Aug puts bought two weeks ago as hedge/insurance when the stock was in the low 130's have now gone up even with the stock at 137.54... this too is due to increased demands for also puts as we are nearing the call. So my point is there is a lot of demand for both puts and calls right now, and the option premiums could deflate badly after the call even if the stock price rises a lot.

Indeed. That is one reason I am mostly writing puts.

 

[aznt1217]

Doubtful of this being truly priced in. Mainly because there have been an increased amount of articles citing Autodata sales numbers and the BMW i3 comparisons being drawn. The main snub at Tesla is that demand isn't sustainable. I think this ride is mainly due to DB PT of $160. Typically companies that execute properly get to the targets within a few months and then clear it safely in a month or two (*Reasonable targets-- not $1000 AAPL targets)

Also we have to remember the street reacts whatever way it wants. We might get a surprise, but what's going to matter is the Q+A and global roll out.

Not a hugely original thought, but I would say that more and more confidence in an ER beat is being baked into the stock price this week. With TSLA being the hottest buzz stock going, it is pretty hard to keep a noisy cat in the bag. This forum alone could account for a fair amount of "leakage." That said, I think there is still at least $10/share of potential "pop" upside still left in there.

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P.S. My multiple option positions presume there will still be a least a decent pop.

 

[justdoit]

Haven't heard a lot on here about Tesla's moves in China
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Is Planning Something Big In China | ETF DAILY NEWS

Does anyone think anything about China will be mentioned on the call? I'm guessing someone will ask but I wonder how much more Elon will be willing to share. There seems to be mixed opinions (ie. huge growth opportunity, terrible decision, etc) from a few articles I've read.

I think if something substantive is mentioned on the call about this that can possibly lead to a pretty positive reaction.