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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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This X account is also worthless, just like that guy Jake Wu something. Say a lot of *sugar* but never really stand behind anything while being wrong half the times.

My bet is dont bet on it breaking for another 6 months. Once it breaks, it will be UP. So no, no trade of the summer, not this year.

In EWT, theres is only ONE corrective pattern that fits this big correction since 415. The triangle correction with 3 downs and 2 ups.
Screenshot_20240519_225652_Chrome.jpg

So far we have seen only 2 downs. my bet is 235-250 will hard reject and 160 will once again be tested around Q3 ER.
Messenger_creation_236bb43d-6a0f-4dda-b801-1f347840fa0b.jpeg
 
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what is your straddle success rate? i mean, how long on average before the losing side go OTM? 1 month? 2?

how often does this happen in your experience?
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View attachment 1048573
I don't have enough experience with longer dated straddles, these ones I hold right now, the Dec 2025 -190's are really the first time I try it, and these have been mostly been born out of necessity for getting out of some big DITM's

Weekly straddles, hard for me to quantify as there's no link between the calls and puts in my broker app, so I just need to look at my Excel and try to see where I have matching expiries. A cursory glance (as Curt would say) shows a net loss on all the ones I found, so not recommended as a regular trading pattern to be used, but I still think they play their part when trying to aggressively move a strike up/down
 
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I may have to call this a dead cat if conditions are met next week.

1. The daily trend resistance at $163.5 has not been tested
2. On the 4H timeframe, a triple short signal was triggered. Every time this happen, even during 2020, the 4H PA had to stall or drop hard until it became oversold. As of this moment, its only neutral.
3. Even though I think good chances we run up next week on some news, ultimately that news wont be material to Q2 ER, which means bull trap.
4. Even if the vote is passed, it still wont affect Q2 ER.
5. Q1 miss was horrible, so any consolidation into end of June should be from above. Question is what price will be the magnet before P&D.
I like this path the most
View attachment 1048262


June seasonality is bullish. So maybe $207-$160?

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Sitting tight.. haven’t sold any weeklies yet given the straight drop at the open. Still rangebound and tight between $171 and $180
Thanks for the update. Let us know when/what you do :cool:

I used the drop to BTC several CC's sold on Friday's highs for some early week pocket money. Will re-sell if we lose $173-$171 or get over $180.
 
Sitting tight.. haven’t sold any weeklies yet given the straight drop at the open. Still rangebound and tight between $171 and $180
Really thought, based on the technicals from late last week and all of the comments on Friday and this weekend, Monday was going to be a good day...still possible, but very range bound 173-175.5....
 
TSLA has pulled back in a corrective 3-wave into retrace support for the blue (b) wave, but it's not a clear 5-up off the May low yet as for confirmation of starting the higher blue C wave (~$230's). Need more evidence that the C wave has started (i.e., TSLA >$188). Until then, technically there's still room for deeper in the blue B wave to that 61.8% level @ $159.24.

1716215637877.png
 
Really thought, based on the technicals from late last week and all of the comments on Friday and this weekend, Monday was going to be a good day...still possible, but very range bound 173-175.5....

Yes, it looked bullish in many ways, incl. OPEX now out of the way, though I've observed when call walls are high and put are low, like as seen last Friday for 5/24, MM tries to go the other way to drain the calls/make people close them. Dunno if this is empirical or a tin-foil theory but I've seen it a few times.
 
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