IIRC, the real move is EOD or the day after... so all goodSo tomorrow gonna be a big, fat, green day ?
i think sometimes the move during/after the speech is MM headfake (bull or bear trap?)
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
i think sometimes the move during/after the speech is MM headfake (bull or bear trap?)
Feeling like I wouldn’t get better timing this week, and unsure when we might revisit $160 (were I to keep rolling weeklies ATM), grabbed the bull by the horns and went out 3.5 months to reset to ATM, and also reduce #contracts by 25% of DITM CC sold prior to ER:
- Closed 3May$155, $162.50 and $165; and sold 16Aug$180 for a $192 debit (used limit orders to buy low and sell high over several hours, and lock-in the negligible cost)
- In light of AI/FSD developments with a potential increase in volatility, and having achieved full-year income goal from CC’s once $180s are cleared, will shift to more cautious 10-11DTE 15%OTM on all contracts; starting with those released above
- Also, switching to ATM buy-writes in a small account
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FWIW next week appears bullish $190-$200 absolute GEX wise (purple):
Supported by this too for next week (quite bullish):
NFA
Supported by this too for next week (quite bullish):
NFA
they’re slowing balance sheet roll off, this is most likely step one of easing.saw some editied text of changes, nothing stood out.
Now he said next move will unlikely be a hike ... so all good
ProfessorZoom
Member
Didn't know Tesla still had an HR department... (sorry if someone posted this this morning already)
Can probably attribute the departure to her putting up a fight to retain key employees, but that's just a (not-so-farfetched) guess
THAT
WAS
CRAZY!
Sadly (and somewhat predictable) MM and other large positions holders just wanted to get clear, 2-5% higher.. so thesis intact.
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
One of the craziest bull trap in a while.
Best things I ever did was to do nothing after FOMC. Was watering the plants. Came in and everything was back in red.
Note to self - after a major news event keep self occupy for 30 minutes before doing anything.
Best things I ever did was to do nothing after FOMC. Was watering the plants. Came in and everything was back in red.
Note to self - after a major news event keep self occupy for 30 minutes before doing anything.
Patience is not inaction.
Thats a great helpful visual! Can you kindly share that TradingView tab so we can duplicate it on our end?
SpaceXaddict
Member
Greetings--
I thought the earnings call would be hated by Wall Street. So I sold some calls and bought puts-- weeklies.
When I was wrong, I rolled the calls out and up a month. But then I proved to be really wrong and the price kept rising. These calls were sold against my TSLA Shares in a non-margin account.
So, I bought time and safety by rolling the calls out to above my total cost of the shares. But this required rolling them out many months. Now if Tesla takes off and I lose my shares, I won't lose money on them. And I have some months to fix the position.
Just not sure what to do. Because we are now down a bit, the calls I sold have declined in price... I can BTC some of them, but that locks in my loss. Probably the best move... or hope we are flat so they erode and I can take more of them off the table over time.
But I feel like there should be a counter move I can make. I could buy lower priced calls, turning it into a vertical spread. But that far out buying calls is expensive. So, I think about buying weekly or monthly calls... and using the proceeds to retire the further out calls.
But I don't know short term direction... maybe I should buy both calls and puts at the same strike? But then flat weeks would kill me.
Any advice appreciated-- or a link to an article about what to do when you sell calls against your stock and the stock rockets up.
I thought the earnings call would be hated by Wall Street. So I sold some calls and bought puts-- weeklies.
When I was wrong, I rolled the calls out and up a month. But then I proved to be really wrong and the price kept rising. These calls were sold against my TSLA Shares in a non-margin account.
So, I bought time and safety by rolling the calls out to above my total cost of the shares. But this required rolling them out many months. Now if Tesla takes off and I lose my shares, I won't lose money on them. And I have some months to fix the position.
Just not sure what to do. Because we are now down a bit, the calls I sold have declined in price... I can BTC some of them, but that locks in my loss. Probably the best move... or hope we are flat so they erode and I can take more of them off the table over time.
But I feel like there should be a counter move I can make. I could buy lower priced calls, turning it into a vertical spread. But that far out buying calls is expensive. So, I think about buying weekly or monthly calls... and using the proceeds to retire the further out calls.
But I don't know short term direction... maybe I should buy both calls and puts at the same strike? But then flat weeks would kill me.
Any advice appreciated-- or a link to an article about what to do when you sell calls against your stock and the stock rockets up.
SpaceXaddict
Member
My average share cost: $183
Wrote call at $155, rolled up, then rolled up and out to November $185. We are very close to this strike price. I have until November to eliminate this short call position against my shares. What to do?
Most HR managers with any sense of commitment to employees would have issues with EM’s slash and burn / no discussion approach.Can probably attribute the departure to her putting up a fight to retain key employees, but that's just a (not-so-farfetched) guess
Just did something similar (as posted), plan is to roll in and reduce contracts, whenever possible. Hopefully, won’t have to wait until August to have them expire or roll. There is some chance of SP not advancing beyond $180 by August despite volatility.
SpaceXaddict
Member
I might be stupid but what I am hearing is:
If you are short 5 contracts at 180 months out, you would BTC them by selling sooner dated contracts closer to the money on a down day? This reduces number of contracts exposed, by lowering the strikes.
EG: BTC 5 180 August, STO 3 170 June -- assuming the numbers work for this.
Please let me know if I'm misunderstanding.
Half this thread is people trying to repair underwater positions. There’s lots of strategies but you never know which one will work this time.
My preference is to double the number of contracts and roll up the strike. Or you could flip some to puts to make a straddle and see which side expires and then deal with that. Or you could roll out even farther and consolidate to fewer contracts.
If you have cash, then backing them with shares or LEAPS can work, but there’s more downside risk then.
There’s also nothing wrong with just waiting since the strike is above your basis anyway.
I think there are several (many?) of us in a similar situation. I was doing just great making weekly beer money selling OTM CCs.
But I wrote 5x -162.50 for last Friday before earnings, which I rolled out to 4x -170.00 for 5/24/2024. At this point, I'm going to watch and hope we have a temporary dip (like some of the experts here are suggesting). I looked into rolling out further (for either higher strike price and/or fewer contracts), but I guess I'm too bullish long-term to want to lock in right now. I recognize the risk of the SP continuing higher, which will make it more and more difficult to roll favorably.
If rolling ATM, the best you can really get is maybe $2.50 increase per week of roll. Once you're ITM it gets worse than that. I just don't think rolling is the rescue strategy we make it out to be. The best you can do is get the strike up $20-30 before you find yourself a year or two out. Maybe it was better when we had higher IV but I can't even remember those days anymore.
I used to roll when my strike was threatened but I usually don't anymore. What is functionally happening when you wait to roll until your strike is threatened/passed is that after selling the contract at a low price, you've waited for a higher price to deleverage (higher strike, farther exp = less leverage). That's the opposite of the goal of leveraging up on lows and deleveraging at highs.
Most of the time, the SP comes back at some point well before your expiration but you're forced to sit on your hands and wait, even when the original contract might have expired. Even worse, then you might want to roll back in because the stock looks weak again - so now you leverage up at a less favorable price than you deleveraged at, compounding the loss as you end up at a strike worse than your original one.
So what I try to do is be patient and wait until Thursday or Friday for the market makers and Reuters to help me out. Sometimes I can eke out $2.50-5 strike improvement. If I have to roll flat to the next week at that point, at least I get a small credit. And pretty often (at least these days), the SP comes back down and they expire.
I used to roll when my strike was threatened but I usually don't anymore. What is functionally happening when you wait to roll until your strike is threatened/passed is that after selling the contract at a low price, you've waited for a higher price to deleverage (higher strike, farther exp = less leverage). That's the opposite of the goal of leveraging up on lows and deleveraging at highs.
Most of the time, the SP comes back at some point well before your expiration but you're forced to sit on your hands and wait, even when the original contract might have expired. Even worse, then you might want to roll back in because the stock looks weak again - so now you leverage up at a less favorable price than you deleveraged at, compounding the loss as you end up at a strike worse than your original one.
So what I try to do is be patient and wait until Thursday or Friday for the market makers and Reuters to help me out. Sometimes I can eke out $2.50-5 strike improvement. If I have to roll flat to the next week at that point, at least I get a small credit. And pretty often (at least these days), the SP comes back down and they expire.
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