Would have been right there with ya buddy. TWT.. Iāll say this. I think itās still $140 before $240 (I could really probably bring that in a bit) but $90 would still take a LOT. However, I donāt think ppl have done enough analysis of the IRA (not an individual retirement account) and what a total elimination of all battery production, EV incentives, domestic backup incentives, investment incentives for domestic battery production would do to pretty much ANY non-hydrocarbon companies revenues and earnings projection. so, watch this space.It's when Kimbal dumps a load that you need to get worried
I do think TSLA will have a mad rally at some point, maybe a few more iterations of FSD so it becomes good enough that it enters the public conscious, also an OEM licensing FSD would like send the stock crazy, if one OEM comes on board the others will think about to too, same as happened with NACS
Shame it didn't crash to $90 after earnings, I was going to load 10k TSLA , meh
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Earnings werenāt as bad as predicted and the earnings call gave multiple positive updatesIts suspicious when an obviously bad ER pumps up SP by 15%. People would be claiming vast worldwide conspiracy if the opposite happened
. Seems like a rather reasonable reaction to me. I think itās simply that all investors that were into TSLA for the combination a healthy auto business + FSD potential are now out of the stock. Anyone still invested is invested in TSLA as a tech/AI play.
I donāt think itās really going out on a limb to say earnings donāt matter for the rest of 2024 if FSD continues rate of progress.
I wonder how this will be front-run by the market; will there be a spike on the rumors of 12.4, will it take 12.5... or highway stack update? (My limited experience with the highway stack is that it needs serious work.)
Or, like you suggest, will it require another OEM to buy in? I think the OEMs will take at least a year from when it becomes viable (again, just like NACS), so that should not be the main indicator.
Approval of the FSD homologation in China could be meaningful; I could see that being interpreted as a building moat in China to expand market share. Likely also under-appreciated though.
Which, from a trading perspective makes me think we are in for a minor retraction and then steady growth... as @dl003 has been saying. There doesn't seem to be enough wind right now to keep things pushing up, but it is easy to see on the horizon.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
@tivoboy still seeing 6xx for NVDA?
Many of us here are on the same mindset to load boatload of TSLA once it hit sub 100. Well that plan changed but the good news is the opportunity are still there but the buyin are now just priced higher.
At least now the path are clearer and the dark days are soon over.
We have good peoples on this forum that will be guiding lights and helping hands on this journey together. Have faith is what dl003 always said. Just need to ball up sometimes yeah - those last lines was aiming at my chicken dog head.
Many of us here are on the same mindset to load boatload of TSLA once it hit sub 100. Well that plan changed but the good news is the opportunity are still there but the buyin are now just priced higher.
At least now the path are clearer and the dark days are soon over.
We have good peoples on this forum that will be guiding lights and helping hands on this journey together. Have faith is what dl003 always said. Just need to ball up sometimes
yeah - those last lines was aiming at my chicken dog head.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
I have no problem with the reaction - thats why I don't play EREarnings werenāt as bad as predicted and the earnings call gave multiple positive updates
I think it might have been correct before ER - even that is iffy. A lot of people were waiting to hear what the management said about future models.
What Tesla said was - they are firmly in healthy auto business with accelerated (and more prudent) plans to bring out a cheaper car. So, any new news about that will move SP going forward. Infact the entire SP pump can be attributed to this accelerated plan.
Unless there is some magic that improves FSD by factors of magnitude (1 in 20 miles to 1 in 1,000 miles this year) - every bit of news will continue to affect SP. As we saw with the NHTSA report.
Yes, I've read ppl talking about FSD improving "two orders of magnitude" in short order.. either they don't know what that REALLY means or just have too much hope/expectation for how software development really works. We're in the 7-10% area of required improvement, and that will take MORE time to close completely than the last 10% by most likely AN order of magnitude
He doesnāt even listen to his brother most of the timeā¦had he listened, he would have stopped the political tweets by now.
Would indeed cool a bit after last weeks rapid recovery, but I'm exiting it to hover around 170 for a week, maybe two, which is why I wrote fairly aggressive 5/3 -p170/-c175 spangles
This is more based on the GEX/GAMMMA stuff from @Yoona over TA, and the general feeling in my gonads
We shall see!
I would bite like a pull-back to offload the +p150's for at least "some" profit
I do wonder if the rave reviews FSD has been getting recently contributed too the uncanny TSLA strength following the terrible P&D, problem is that here in Europe we have no opportunity to experience it, we just get EAP and it seems the same on the highway as it was three years ago
bmd00
Member
Iāve been reading several books about Elliott Wave Theory lately. Many Elliott Wave theorists claim that logarithmic charting is better for longer-term trends while arithmetic is better for shorter-term trends, although they say you should test both. This is because arithmetic charting only accounts for absolute value of SP moves whereas log charting accounts for the percentage change which smooths out the long-term chart.
Looking at tsla on a logarithmic chart shows you a different picture than arithmetic. On a log chart, there is no trendline support at 139-140 area. Any way you draw the ascending trendline leading back to the 2019 or 2020 bottom, it has been broken. But on an arithmetic chart, you can see a support trendline leading back to the 2020 bottom, hitting the Jan 6th 2023 bottom, and supporting SP on Apr 22nd at 139.
Elliott Wave Theory also states that wave 3 of an impulse move canāt be the shortest wave, and since the perceived wave 3 in this falling wedge pattern was from 205.60 to 160.51 (45.09 points) wave 5, which began at 184.25, shouldnāt trade below 139.16. SP did fall slightly below this level but only by 0.36 points. I give full credit to @dl003 for pointing this out. Iām curious to know what you think about log v arithmetic charting when it comes to tsla.
In my opinion, daily and hourly price action on Apr 22nd, the presumed bottom, were not in and of itself significant. However, what happened the rest of the week was.
To identify a trend reversal, I like to use a combination of hourly, daily, and weekly charts. In this case, the only candle that shows us anything meaningful is the weekly. And the high volume candle for this past week suggests that the trend likely has reversed. Furthermore, the bullish divergence on the daily chart leading back to Jan 25th helps prove the bears have lost momentum.
This is shockingly similar to the top on July 19th, 2023. Price action on July 19th was not in and of itself significant. But look at the weekly chart and youāll see an engulfing reversal candle with high volume. This was more convincing, especially after hitting the long-term downtrend leading back to the all-time high made on Nov 4th, 2021. This is why it is important to use a combination of hourly, daily, and weekly charts.
I would also like to mention that when we get a huge gap, like on Apr 24th, it is a strong sign that the trend is in the direction of the gap. Closing this gap is going to be very hard. If you are long and SP does close the gap made on Apr 24th, I would no longer be bullish.
So, if the bottom is in and a new rally has begun, the next question becomes when is the best spot to go long?
From my research, SP always retests at least 0.382 of the first major leg up. I also notice this typically begins on day 3 after the gap. See several examples below.
Jan 6th, 2023
July 19th, 2023 (post q2 earnings)
Oct 31st, 2023
If Friday ended the first leg up we should expect to see SP test at least 159.50 (0.382). On Friday, we can see a 1hr bearish divergence, so a retracement seems logical. However, this divergence may extend into the start of this week (175-177) before any major retracement.
If this is the start of a new rally, I don't see us hitting 155. My gut feeling is that 159.50 will likely get bought up quickly. The gap from last week is too strong and there will be too many people waiting to cover shorts and go long at the first sign of a pullback.
Looking at tsla on a logarithmic chart shows you a different picture than arithmetic. On a log chart, there is no trendline support at 139-140 area. Any way you draw the ascending trendline leading back to the 2019 or 2020 bottom, it has been broken. But on an arithmetic chart, you can see a support trendline leading back to the 2020 bottom, hitting the Jan 6th 2023 bottom, and supporting SP on Apr 22nd at 139.
Elliott Wave Theory also states that wave 3 of an impulse move canāt be the shortest wave, and since the perceived wave 3 in this falling wedge pattern was from 205.60 to 160.51 (45.09 points) wave 5, which began at 184.25, shouldnāt trade below 139.16. SP did fall slightly below this level but only by 0.36 points. I give full credit to @dl003 for pointing this out. Iām curious to know what you think about log v arithmetic charting when it comes to tsla.
In my opinion, daily and hourly price action on Apr 22nd, the presumed bottom, were not in and of itself significant. However, what happened the rest of the week was.
To identify a trend reversal, I like to use a combination of hourly, daily, and weekly charts. In this case, the only candle that shows us anything meaningful is the weekly. And the high volume candle for this past week suggests that the trend likely has reversed. Furthermore, the bullish divergence on the daily chart leading back to Jan 25th helps prove the bears have lost momentum.
This is shockingly similar to the top on July 19th, 2023. Price action on July 19th was not in and of itself significant. But look at the weekly chart and youāll see an engulfing reversal candle with high volume. This was more convincing, especially after hitting the long-term downtrend leading back to the all-time high made on Nov 4th, 2021. This is why it is important to use a combination of hourly, daily, and weekly charts.
I would also like to mention that when we get a huge gap, like on Apr 24th, it is a strong sign that the trend is in the direction of the gap. Closing this gap is going to be very hard. If you are long and SP does close the gap made on Apr 24th, I would no longer be bullish.
So, if the bottom is in and a new rally has begun, the next question becomes when is the best spot to go long?
From my research, SP always retests at least 0.382 of the first major leg up. I also notice this typically begins on day 3 after the gap. See several examples below.
Jan 6th, 2023
July 19th, 2023 (post q2 earnings)
Oct 31st, 2023
If Friday ended the first leg up we should expect to see SP test at least 159.50 (0.382). On Friday, we can see a 1hr bearish divergence, so a retracement seems logical. However, this divergence may extend into the start of this week (175-177) before any major retracement.
If this is the start of a new rally, I don't see us hitting 155. My gut feeling is that 159.50 will likely get bought up quickly. The gap from last week is too strong and there will be too many people waiting to cover shorts and go long at the first sign of a pullback.
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ProfessorZoom
Member
The 10 B spend this year will probably help the highway stack, which is still V11 in V12, to be end to end just like city streets
I wonder how the market will react to Elons comment, that is like 40% of their cash
@Yoona What does it mean when a +GEX bar is down below spot, like here @150 5/31?
I rarely see that.
That is an easily capitalized investment though. Sure, they need a path to a few million FSD subscriptions to make it pay out, but that doesn't seem impossible.
bmd00
Member
Driving cybertruck in person is probably the closest youāll feel to being a celebrity. Although be prepared for some Elon haters to cut you off and give you the bird.
it means there is a lot of call OI on that strike and gamma can be interpreted as the probability of the strike expiring ITM
tall gammas are magnets, so we may close a bit below or a bit above 150; note i emphasized probability - who is to say if MM will/won't pay up?
but, as of now, there is a lot of hedging at that strike (more than 100% of the other call strikes) and that effectively pins or puts a cap on the market
we are still OTM and it's still a month out, so 150 may still change. How do i know that? If we remove the expiration date, this is how tsla is ACROSS ALL EXPIRATION DATES. 160 is the new 150. We may shift to 160 bottom.
With gamma, it is important to be aware of the passage of time. This is a random chart is pulled from google showing gamma vs. time :
how does time affect hedging flow? As time goes by, gamma increases; meaning, the closer we are to 0dte (ie May 31), the more hedging MM will do. (Contrary to popular belief, MM doesn't automatically hedge yet if OTM or if there is still a lot of time.)
assuming we are in or around 150 near May monthend, those 150 calls become peak gamma and they start to decay as we approach May 31. 150 is "locked in" because if sp is above, MM hedges delta and they sell. If sp drops, MM buys back their short positions. That's why it's a magnet.
long story short, 150 is magnet assuming we are in or around 150 near May monthend.
it is important to remember that gamma is just another TA helper. Direction is not guaranteed. If there is a swan, gamma walls collapse. Remember last week? 150 was deep red for several weeks prior to earnings. Sentiment changed, we went to 170+, and the red 150s disappeared from the squeeze.
After reading Isaacsson Muskās bio, I came to understand Elon doesnāt answer to anybody, even Kimball when he calls him for open loop destroying behaviour like he did with the Pedoguy story. It is good when you think you will succeed and everybody think you will fail to continue doing what you do to change the world however for self destructing behaviour like in his personal relationship it might not be the greatest personably trait someone would actively search. The SP is so volatile because of options market and loose canon CEO on his social skills. However this was makes Tesla so great, because of his engineering skills and his relentlessness.
I have some loose funds.
Iām hesitating to buy leaps again, sell ITM puts, buy SPY. Donāt really know what to do anymore.
ProfessorZoom
Member
Someone correct me cause idk how some of this stuff works financially:
They said some more of FSD revenue was recognized due to autopark feature being released on the call right? 12.3.6 just came out and has autopark for USS cars. Does this mean another bump in revenue recognition for this quarter?
They said some more of FSD revenue was recognized due to autopark feature being released on the call right? 12.3.6 just came out and has autopark for USS cars. Does this mean another bump in revenue recognition for this quarter?
Thank you for this information @bmd00. Someone on the other thread stated about 20 minutes ago to check the 24hour movement on TSLA, and although I donāt put much into before and after hours pricing, TSLA was at $175 about 20 minutes ago, and now it is at $177. That is a significant increase from Friday close.
I wonder what this means as @dI003 mentioned yesterday and you mentioned above, we will probably retrace down to about $159 by mid-May. Is this still in play if we get over $178 on Monday?
I went through your charts but see mostly green arrow upward trajectory at 45 degrees. I missed the sale of long puts at 140s, would like to squeeze a few more points out of them if we indeed have a chance at 155, use the proceeds to buy some more shares at that time. Is "short term" imply this or next week?
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