I'm mainly selling put spreads. This week and last, I leaned heavily on 650-750 and 700-750 spreads -- 750 seeming like a pretty safe number. But if I'm going to be honest, I'd be better off at least 10% away from the stock price, so maybe that should be more like $620-720. Perhaps a bit higher for a $100 spread, so maybe a mix of $670-720 and $640-740? Though subject to change if the stock price keeps going up.
My problem is that I see these $7 or $9 spreads with the $750 short leg, and a huge number of open puts at $750, and the mid-BB over $770 and it's hard to convince myself that the stock will go lower than $750. But earlier in the year there were weeks where my "TSLA down 5%" alert went off day after day. I don't feel like TSLA was a worse company then. But one lady in China stomping on her car made a massive (undeserved) change in sentiment completely out of left field, and today there are plenty of opportunities for macro problems (inflation, failure to increase debt limit or pass infrastructure bills, gas prices going nuts, take your pick), and I'd rather feel like I could take a day or two of big hits without scrambling.
Then I think I pay close enough attention that I could scramble successfully.
Basically, I'm at war with myself.
I had two major losing battles earlier this year, but I'm still (for me) very far up in total, which doesn't help me talk myself into being more conservative. Except the put spreads could go bad faster than the plain puts I was selling earlier in the year, and I don't yet have experience with a major downturn while holding put spreads. I think I could handle it...
...but am I right?