Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

tsla snapshot
View attachment 1032305

Possible translation (@Yoona let me know if it's about right):

Gamma: If SP reaches tall bar it might hover below OR above (because it is a magnet), unless there is a tall wall or cluster somewhere else
3/28 Tallest green wall is @$180, might be fulcrum for the week
4/05 Tallest green wall is @$185, might be fulcrum for the week
4/12 Tallest green wall is @$185, might be fulcrum for the week
4/19 Red walls dominate $170-175
4/26 Red walls dominate $150

Vanna: If SP reaches tall bar it might be "capped" at or below it, unless there is a cluster somewhere else.
3/28 There's a small one @$185

 

[Jim Holder]

Seems Morgan Stanley finished loading up after bashing Tesla the last few weeks

 

[thenewguy1979]

Interesting, the 14-day quoted this morning at 41! Tesla (TSLA) 14-Day RSI

What is your link for that RSI data? I may be looking at the wrong datapoint, can’t really tell in my link. TIA.

It's from the Trade station Web App. Parts of the Broker Software Package.

 

[dl003]

Thanks dl003. Are you holding onto any naked call for now? was planning -190C for 4/5.

I always have naked short calls. Is it a good time to enter new ones? Probably not.

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Jim Holder]

TSLA can't hold its gains + seems to often pick the wrong day to break out.

 

[Singuy]

TSLA can't hold its gains + seems to often pick the wrong day to break out.



View attachment 1032337

It is very strong today compared to macros if you haven't noticed. Even Nvidia is red.

 

[ProfessorZoom]

View attachment 1032202

 

[Cherry Wine]

Sold 3/28 -c170s and used the proceeds to buy 4/5 +p170s on the pop. Both positions are in the green, but I'm planning to hold to much closer to expiration. The covered calls in particular are an unusually risky play for me, but my conviction that they'll expire worthless (or, at the least, break-even) is high.

Gotta love the stock market. I'm still holding these positions.

 

[Jim Holder]

Ugly daily candle, painful to sit on

 

[thenewguy1979]

It's #1 today

 

[CHGolferJim]

I always have naked short calls. Is it a good time to enter new ones? Probably not.

Sorry for the basic question. Is this, in your opinion, the correct RSI to refer to as one indicator of TSLA SP movement? TIA. Tesla (TSLA) 14-Day RSI

 

[dl003]

Sorry for the basic question. Is this, in your opinion, the correct RSI to refer to as one indicator of TSLA SP movement? TIA. Tesla (TSLA) 14-Day RSI

That's yesterday's reading. Also, that's the daily RSI. As the stock is building up momentum, we have to work our way out from the lower timeframes. I suggest to get a Tradingview subscription to play around instead of relying on these primitive tools.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Anyone know why the Market did a 180 last 30-40 minutes? NVDA and SMCI took some hits.

 

[Jim Holder]

Canaccord Genuity analyst @gianarikas has reiterated his $TSLA price target of $234 and BUY rating.

“Overall, we view much of the negativity currently surrounding Tesla as extreme — and the recent uptick in volume of negative and bearish feedback we have received regarding Tesla's stock does serve as a barometer as to how lopsided current sentiment is. Yes, the company is “between 2 major growth waves”. Yes, earnings revisions have been nasty for some time. Our January post-deliveries note (Mind the Gap) discusses the multiple expansion in 2023 in the face of margin shortfalls, raises several pointed questions about the year ahead, and previews the coming growth slowdown. However — the issues of 1Q24 appear to be somewhat demand-related BUT mostly supply-related. That means people may be mostly misdiagnosing current Tesla fundamentals. We estimate supply constraints may have cost Tesla ~95k units in deliveries. Also, with pricing in a better place (at least for now), could margins help set the stage for positive earnings revisions over the course of 2024 as Cybertruck ramps? We’ll see.

“We are adjusting our 1Q24 delivery estimates from 441k to 420k. Actual investor expectations for a quarter are always tough to decipher, but we hear 1Q24 delivery murmurings in the low-400k range. We are also adjusting our volumes from ~2.08M to ~2.04M for 2024. Our 2024 non-GAAP EPS estimate is also moving lower, mostly due to an increase in our tax rate and opex adjustments — from $4.02 to $3.60. Our price target of $234 (based on 26x our 2026E non-GAAP EPS) remains the same as we are not adjusting our 2026 estimates.

“Postscript: As we were working on this note, Elon Musk instructed Tesla employees to both install and demo FSD (full self-driving) Beta for customers taking delivery in North America. Tesla will also offer 1 month of free FSD to all US Teslas starting this week. We have been strong advocates of Tesla’s razor/razorblade approach in seeding the market with vehicles that are software upgradable with a high margin software
— and see this as a potential catalyst for future penetration gains. However, we see additional price cuts as necessary for a material change in FSD penetration.”

 

[Max Plaid]

Was out for a day-trip to Edinburgh today, so couldn't watch the charts, still put in a ST0 2x SMCI -p1000 @$12.1, which apparently executed why I was driving back

I decided to go a bit more aggressive on the SMCI & NDVA puts, the IV is so high on both stock that the weekly extrinsic gains are worth the risk. Plus they're calendar diagonals, so lots of roll events, and in the case of NVDA I only wrote against 1/3rd of my +puts, and to back it up they're all fully CSP

TBH I almost wouldn't mind being put 100x $SMCI, then write 1x weekly ATM straddle, it's a 10% ROIC

 

[thenewguy1979]

Canaccord Genuity analyst @gianarikas has reiterated his $TSLA price target of $234 and BUY rating.

“Overall, we view much of the negativity currently surrounding Tesla as extreme — and the recent uptick in volume of negative and bearish feedback we have received regarding Tesla's stock does serve as a barometer as to how lopsided current sentiment is. Yes, the company is “between 2 major growth waves”. Yes, earnings revisions have been nasty for some time. Our January post-deliveries note (Mind the Gap) discusses the multiple expansion in 2023 in the face of margin shortfalls, raises several pointed questions about the year ahead, and previews the coming growth slowdown. However — the issues of 1Q24 appear to be somewhat demand-related BUT mostly supply-related. That means people may be mostly misdiagnosing current Tesla fundamentals. We estimate supply constraints may have cost Tesla ~95k units in deliveries. Also, with pricing in a better place (at least for now), could margins help set the stage for positive earnings revisions over the course of 2024 as Cybertruck ramps? We’ll see.

“We are adjusting our 1Q24 delivery estimates from 441k to 420k. Actual investor expectations for a quarter are always tough to decipher, but we hear 1Q24 delivery murmurings in the low-400k range. We are also adjusting our volumes from ~2.08M to ~2.04M for 2024. Our 2024 non-GAAP EPS estimate is also moving lower, mostly due to an increase in our tax rate and opex adjustments — from $4.02 to $3.60. Our price target of $234 (based on 26x our 2026E non-GAAP EPS) remains the same as we are not adjusting our 2026 estimates.

“Postscript: As we were working on this note, Elon Musk instructed Tesla employees to both install and demo FSD (full self-driving) Beta for customers taking delivery in North America. Tesla will also offer 1 month of free FSD to all US Teslas starting this week. We have been strong advocates of Tesla’s razor/razorblade approach in seeding the market with vehicles that are software upgradable with a high margin software
— and see this as a potential catalyst for future penetration gains. However, we see additional price cuts as necessary for a material change in FSD penetration.”

Seem Analysts are moving the target lower and lower. Once the number hit on Monday perhaps it's a nothing burger, since everyone, their moms, their mom's mom, already baked in the expectation of a bad PD with anticipation of what to come into the ER and beyond......

It's not like the number is a surprise when it's thrown at our faces all weeks long, or does it?

Side note, GDP growth rate out Thursday, that can bring Macro up a bit.

 

[Max Plaid]

Seem Analysts are moving the target lower and lower. Once the number hit on Monday perhaps it's a nothing burger, since everyone, their moms, their mom's mom, already baked in the expectation of a bad PD with anticipation of what to come into the ER and beyond......

It's not like the number is a surprise when it's thrown at our faces all weeks long, or does it?

Side note, GDP growth rate out Thursday, that can bring Macro up a bit.

I really have no clue on the P&D other than it will be lower than Q4, that's very evident... I've also been a strong advocate of things being "priced-in" over the years only to be befuddled when this doesn't appear tome the case

Historically TSLA quite often popped on positive P&D and earnings surprises, until it became normalised, since then it has tended to drop even when the numbers beat

This time it's different, right?

 

[Yoona]

Was out for a day-trip to Edinburgh today, so couldn't watch the charts, still put in a ST0 2x SMCI -p1000 @$12.1, which apparently executed why I was driving back

I decided to go a bit more aggressive on the SMCI & NDVA puts, the IV is so high on both stock that the weekly extrinsic gains are worth the risk. Plus they're calendar diagonals, so lots of roll events, and in the case of NVDA I only wrote against 1/3rd of my +puts, and to back it up they're all fully CSP

TBH I almost wouldn't mind being put 100x $SMCI, then write 1x weekly ATM straddle, it's a 10% ROIC

+75% in 2.5 hours, forgot to close it but TYVM smci

need more of this to break even my TSLA st*pid 206 B/W

 

[thenewguy1979]

+75% in 2.5 hours, forgot to close it but TYVM smci

need more of this to break even my TSLA st*pid 206 B/W

View attachment 1032385

Yoona was the 206 B/W recent? Seem the weekly premiums off of SMCI and NVDA should have recoup it by now?

We all make mistakes, just generally we don't posted it most of the times.

Lately I've been very cautious (could have been better) during entry as fixing the "mistake" is a lot harder......