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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Wider. HV pylon (power pole) arsoned which damaged the lines.
@dl003 If I'm looking to open new CC's if we lose $181-$175, what would be a reasonable CC strike/DTE.
Asking based on this:
DL003: "Once a bottom is in, the stock will ALWAYS at least reclaim the 0.236 fib level and MOST OFTEN will be rejected initially by this level. This level was 194.14, see how cleanly it went? Knowing this, pick your strike accordingly. If it's in the middle of the week, you can try to sell a 2-3 DTE call on these conditions:
1. The strike price is at least higher than the 0.236 level. That's my strike.
2. The stock price is at a point where the 0.236 level falls inside of the 1 SD from the SP. That's my entry. Quick way to do this is look at that 2-3 DTE strike.
Add the ATM call & put premium then multiply that sum by 0.85. That's 1 SD. Add that to the SP and see if it exceeds 194.14. If it does, it means the SP will hit 194.14 first before fulfilling its quota - poised for a pullback soon. If it is lower than 194.14, it means the stock has room to run without exceeding its quota. You will incur greater paper loss before it pulls back.
Now, if you want to sell a 6-7 DTE call around this level, then take profit after it has hit 194.14 and pulled back because you don't know what is going to happen after the pullback. If 175 is the bottom and this is just a pullback, the next move will be up to take out 194.14. Since you're allowing the stock enough time to both pullback and go back up, take this into consideration.
Asking based on this:
DL003: "Once a bottom is in, the stock will ALWAYS at least reclaim the 0.236 fib level and MOST OFTEN will be rejected initially by this level. This level was 194.14, see how cleanly it went? Knowing this, pick your strike accordingly. If it's in the middle of the week, you can try to sell a 2-3 DTE call on these conditions:
1. The strike price is at least higher than the 0.236 level. That's my strike.
2. The stock price is at a point where the 0.236 level falls inside of the 1 SD from the SP. That's my entry. Quick way to do this is look at that 2-3 DTE strike.
Add the ATM call & put premium then multiply that sum by 0.85. That's 1 SD. Add that to the SP and see if it exceeds 194.14. If it does, it means the SP will hit 194.14 first before fulfilling its quota - poised for a pullback soon. If it is lower than 194.14, it means the stock has room to run without exceeding its quota. You will incur greater paper loss before it pulls back.
Now, if you want to sell a 6-7 DTE call around this level, then take profit after it has hit 194.14 and pulled back because you don't know what is going to happen after the pullback. If 175 is the bottom and this is just a pullback, the next move will be up to take out 194.14. Since you're allowing the stock enough time to both pullback and go back up, take this into consideration.
Thanks, not sure I trust their re-reporting. That's previous drone footage.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Same guy that someone here was posting his wildly optimistic delivery and EPS projections for the other day that also looked unreasonably high but were presenting in a bunch of spreadsheets and stuff- got strong James Stephenson vibes off the whole thing.
can I just say that, although we didn't get along at first, I've come to appreciate your level-headedness and learned that you're not a hater at all?
Same for me, but I was blinded by my bullishness, I think @Knightshade mostly states the obvious, but when you've been drinking the Kool-Aid too long, you don't want to hear it...
I was a bit harsh I admit but this sentiment is what I disagree with.... I feel like people are trading *only* on technicals and attributing 0 to actual valuation changes.
Like, you don't just buy a company because it's down 50% from ATH. You have to look at what has changed at the company. The company was priced basically for all the future earnings growth at ATH, and now growth is heavily diminished and earnings have gone down like 40%.
So what that it's down 50%, look at the earnings! TSLA PE ratio (real) is still above 60. It's forward PE ratio (on 2025 estimated earnings) is 45.
NVDA's forward PE ratio (on estimated 2025 earnings) is 28.
Ignored what's happened in the past. One of these companies is priced 50% lower in valuation based on expected earnings than the other. If you think that company is overvalued, then what are you doing going long on the company valued 50% higher?
TSLA will go marketedly higher only when future earnings estimates get revised upwards. Not seeing that happening for 6 months at minimum.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Added some cheap countermeasure protection with vertical put spread in case we break through 175. Holding -192.5p for now.
Seem most of the EV are green today so far.
Seem most of the EV are green today so far.
OK, as mentioned earlier:
BTC 100x Sep -c240 @$9.5 (net +$7.3) -> STO 60x 3/8 -c175 @$10.1 + 37x 3/15 @$11.1 (total of 60x now a this strike and expiry)
These are currently the only short calls I have open, let's see how goes, plan B is to roll them back out again if necessary
BTC 100x Sep -c240 @$9.5 (net +$7.3) -> STO 60x 3/8 -c175 @$10.1 + 37x 3/15 @$11.1 (total of 60x now a this strike and expiry)
These are currently the only short calls I have open, let's see how goes, plan B is to roll them back out again if necessary
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Wow STO -175c 3/8….. wow that cutting it close
Tough decision on this stop loss and assignment avoidance move.... I bought back synthetic green Jan 25 280 CSP while at 182.5. @dl003 , you'd shared your view with @Jim Holder a few weeks back, I remember something like... you're not gonna want to hear this, let them go. Not taking action then cost me near 10k. BTW, I appreciate your perspective and work very much, thank you.
With that lingering extrinsic problem out of the way, I'd like to re-sell to the same expiry when we near low 170s by selecting a lower strike to begin rebuilding 1/3 of the cash I used to buy back. p200 seems to have decent OI and is the highest put strike. I'd like to get a feel where we think SP will be Jan 25. Thoughts, anyone?
With that lingering extrinsic problem out of the way, I'd like to re-sell to the same expiry when we near low 170s by selecting a lower strike to begin rebuilding 1/3 of the cash I used to buy back. p200 seems to have decent OI and is the highest put strike. I'd like to get a feel where we think SP will be Jan 25. Thoughts, anyone?
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I thought this was confirming 175 enough and went back in on shares around $184 with the amount that I sold yesterday when all looked much worse than today. Green candles were overshadowing red ones in volume, so there are more people ready to buy. But I look to have been too early if we drop below 181.50. Then 175 will be the next stop, if it will stop at all.
I have closed this and next Friday's Put and Call SMCI with a net gain of $ 11,- to make room to buy the stock.
Now SPX is under 5100, it is a possible sell signal again. I will sit on my hands but I guess I'd better not wait too long as we're heading south fast. The sunny side is I missed at least $8 drop a share, being sidelined.
I have closed this and next Friday's Put and Call SMCI with a net gain of $ 11,- to make room to buy the stock.
Now SPX is under 5100, it is a possible sell signal again. I will sit on my hands but I guess I'd better not wait too long as we're heading south fast. The sunny side is I missed at least $8 drop a share, being sidelined.
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Troy's latest update to subscribers is grim indeed. Let's just say, Elon would be amused with the number.
Nice, thanks for the idea —> limit order for 10 x 3/8 -c175 @ $9.50 or better
[Edit — switched to market order and could only get $6.775 at 10:50
]PS: Bought two packs of ramen yesterday.
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
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