What does one even call the patten from 11-19? Other than just lower highs and lower lows. What is patterned in the lead up to the wave? Called something specific, or qualified?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
From August 11th to 19th? It's hard to say. The whole structure from 272 down to 212 could be an ending diagonal or some sort of zig-zags / double/triple 3s. I find that counting these waves is a fool's errand. It began looking corrective but ended up overshooting the falling wedge a bit. I only count clear structures and depending on where it occurs, I can try to predict what happens next. For example right now I see a clear 5 wave impulse rally and these things are not one-offs. Chances are there will be a follow through but will that follow through morph into a bigger rally or will it complete the dead cat? It's hard to say.
I'm more certain of the end target than I am of how we get there. We could have 2 legs down of equal length or one being 1.618x or any other fib ratio of the other. 229-230 gets my first vote as it is the 30m support, also where the stock last bottomed before gapping up.
Can someone check my work:
Opened NVDA +p430/-p455 and -c455/+c480 for about $21 credit. Max loss is $25, right? Seems like a reasonable bet with such high premiums for NVDA this week.
Opened NVDA +p430/-p455 and -c455/+c480 for about $21 credit. Max loss is $25, right? Seems like a reasonable bet with such high premiums for NVDA this week.
This is such a twilight zone that I don't have any strong opinion on what to do. Will probably short some 1/2024 SFOTM calls when we get to 235. Just enough to keep me awake. When we get to 225 will short some puts. If we rally from there and break 240 on the daily I will go heavy into short puts.
Calls are flowing in heavily for TSLA. Be careful here you might need to make the hard decision to manage your CCs earlier than expected. Idk why calls inflow is so heavy at this point.
Some mixed signals here. On one hand, 229.6 was a bit shallow a retracement, especially for an extended wave 5. I got the bounce and the rejection near 235, but still looking for that 2nd leg down if there will be one at all.
On the other hand, TSLA is forming my favorite bullish pattern. From a low, it spikes up, bumping its head against an invisible ceiling 3 times before breaking through on the 4th attempt. Call inflow suggests this could be the case here. Price action off of the 102 and 153 low on the left and right for comparison.
On the other hand, TSLA is forming my favorite bullish pattern. From a low, it spikes up, bumping its head against an invisible ceiling 3 times before breaking through on the 4th attempt. Call inflow suggests this could be the case here. Price action off of the 102 and 153 low on the left and right for comparison.
Last week when the SP was crashing, I rolled my -220 Puts for this Friday to end of September -205. Today I could have rolled them back in to 232.5 without a debit, but I don't trust the price action yet. Still looking for it to break resistance at 240 and stochastic over 60 on the daily chart. Not there yet.
Now here's an algorithmic ponder—NVDA and TSLA setup in odd sync:
Honestly I think call SELLERS are going to make out like bandits.
FYI, iron butterflies (IB) are best when opened with implied volatility, which is high and expected to drop. IIRC, NVDA is reporting soon, thus IV should crash after the event. Unfortunately, unless the SP closes at exactly (or very close to) your short -p455/-c455 strike price, you are guaranteed to lose $25-$21=$4/shr. I’ve discovered that locking into an IB makes for a difficult exit, without losing money. I only use them when forced by a bad trade gone south. YMMV.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Because of this on Monday I sold OTM Calls 530 and Puts 400, at around 5 dollar each, just to (today…)take profit on expected IV-decline into earnings. at the moment already gains on both, totalling 25%. so I hope for a SP ending around 450 today, making more than 30% gain for sure. Would be surprised to loose on either position. It also is an experiment to bet, maybe even bigger on this kind of IV next time, involving Tesla around EOQ3 events.
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Back off of OI at 220 is interesting, as is the small call wall sitting at 225. Going to try and roll 8/25 -c215 to -c225 , give up the credit to land closer to SP when the shares are called.
Looks like short sellers tried attacking TSLA this morning. Macros screwed them and saved us so far. We'll see if there is a pullback later.
I tried to use the dip to get out of this week's 120x -c230, which may be safe, or may not, but decided I prefer to err on the cautious side
Out a sell order at $4.9, to make a token 50c profit on each, and planned to rewrite at -c240
The price hit around $230.9, but only 2x got bought, and then the SP went straight to $234
Out a sell order at $4.9, to make a token 50c profit on each, and planned to rewrite at -c240
The price hit around $230.9, but only 2x got bought, and then the SP went straight to $234
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