Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

I still see no news to sufficiently explain the AH/PM pop

If I were being cynical, I could posit that the manipulators know full well that everyone is expecting sub-210, so have decided to flip the direction a little early to catch everyone out...

Obviously I went aggressive on -c210's on Friday, so I have a "oh no, not again" feeling right now, but thinking to wait and see a bit; could be a sell-the-news after Nvidia earnings which could pull everything down, plus we have the FEDiots having their annual JHole jolly, which will no doubt produce some very negative sound-bites

 

[traxila]

I still see no news to sufficiently explain the AH/PM pop

If I were being cynical, I could posit that the manipulators know full well that everyone is expecting sub-210, so have decided to flip the direction a little early to catch everyone out...

Obviously I went aggressive on -c210's on Friday, so I have a "oh no, not again" feeling right now, but thinking to wait and see a bit; could be a sell-the-news after Nvidia earnings which could pull everything down, plus we have the FEDiots having their annual JHole jolly, which will no doubt produce some very negative sound-bites

CT spotting everywhere, reveal announcements and deliveries seem imminent. Only reason I see…

 

[CHGolferJim]

I still see no news to sufficiently explain the AH/PM pop

If I were being cynical, I could posit that the manipulators know full well that everyone is expecting sub-210, so have decided to flip the direction a little early to catch everyone out...

Obviously I went aggressive on -c210's on Friday, so I have a "oh no, not again" feeling right now, but thinking to wait and see a bit; could be a sell-the-news after Nvidia earnings which could pull everything down, plus we have the FEDiots having their annual JHole jolly, which will no doubt produce some very negative sound-bites

My view is that most of the parties influential on SP (outlined in Papafox’s recent note) are balancing their needs and skill sets with guesses about when CyberTruck, Highland, Energy and M2 will hit. The guesses vary, thus SP fluctuates until events, and more importantly sales volumes, are confirmed. And each party varies in the extent to which it anticipates rather than waits for confirmation.

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm considering leveraging up by swapping most of my core shares for LEAPs at this point. I'm eyeing the 19th Dec 2025 $165 calls (delta of 8.09 at the moment).

My rationale:
- share price is relatively low
- I expect share price to reach at least $300 again somewhere the next years
- IV is relatively low

Say I have 1000 shares, right now the share price is $215.
Profit when share price reaches $300 is (85*1000) = $85,000

I could swap 1000 shares for 32 of those LEAPS (contract price: $6,575).
IV being equal, optionsprofitcalculator projects these will be worth $15,000 given a share price of $300 at the end of 2023.
This yields a profit of about $269,600, or roughly a leverage of three.

Dec 2025 $165 will return ~70% if stock goes up 35% to $300 in next few months, so leverage (for now) of 2x right?

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I still see no news to sufficiently explain the AH/PM pop

If I were being cynical, I could posit that the manipulators know full well that everyone is expecting sub-210, so have decided to flip the direction a little early to catch everyone out...

Obviously I went aggressive on -c210's on Friday, so I have a "oh no, not again" feeling right now, but thinking to wait and see a bit; could be a sell-the-news after Nvidia earnings which could pull everything down, plus we have the FEDiots having their annual JHole jolly, which will no doubt produce some very negative sound-bites

Careful out there. Those 70,000x 9/15 puts were closed. Game on!

FYI, several interesting spikes in the various MaxPain graphs.

8/25: Still lots of p200s traded for next week, more than OI, opened?
9/01: Action at p200 & p210. Maybe new, rolls? Wait to see
9/18: 70,000x at p210. Sentinel Trades to watch if closed
10/20: 17,000x at p200. Sentinel Trades to watch if closed

Taking these in aggregate, I think some conservative whales closed and cashed out the 9/18 & 10/20 puts. Need to confirm Monday 7am open interest.



View attachment 966531

 

[dl003]

@dl003 Any update on this given where TSLA is currently and how it’s been trading the past few days?

Will we see $211-$200 or is it time to start considering longs/calls at the $217 area? That everything else is slipping alongside TSLA isn’t helping.

obviously we lost 218 on Friday so safe to say the stock is in limbo again. There are still *multiple* ways to go up, but this is the market saying hey TSLA is not getting a free pass anymore. EWT wise, Friday was a good day to go in if you're playing it aggressively. My 2 main scenarios in green and red.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Just (before 9/15 225 CC got ITM again) rolled that contract to 10/20 230 CC for 5 dollar strike improvement + 600 premium.
Letting the stock do its thing now for a few weeks, unless we see a deep decline.

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, I got caught with my pants down on those 120x -c210's I wrote Friday! Would have closed them out at open, but broker issues stopped that idea...

The good news is that if I include the initial position I rolled from and made profits - the -c215's, I have +$14.3 in each contract, so thinking to roll them up to -c230's, which would give back all the profits, but be a much more comfortable strike

The other possibility is that I'm thinking to just close out the lot, along with the underlying LEAPs, which is good profits, but not exactly what I was looking for from here

In any case, I cannot do anything until the broker resolved the blocked order on my account...

And strong possibility makes sell off in case of Nvidia miss, that stock really has got out of hand IMO, so maybe a little patience is in order anyway

 

[dl003]

230 was a sweet spot for a pullback. From here on out I'm going to look for a flag to run into the close. If that happens, I will look for another spike tomorrow to take out 230. Then I'm going to wait for a deeper pullback into 220-225. If you're stuck with a CC, might want to consider a rescue plan there. If not, I'd prepare to see 250.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Well, I got caught with my pants down on those 120x -c210's I wrote Friday! Would have closed them out at open, but broker issues stopped that idea...

The good news is that if I include the initial position I rolled from and made profits - the -c215's, I have +$14.3 in each contract, so thinking to roll them up to -c230's, which would give back all the profits, but be a much more comfortable strike

The other possibility is that I'm thinking to just close out the lot, along with the underlying LEAPs, which is good profits, but not exactly what I was looking for from here

In any case, I cannot do anything until the broker resolved the blocked order on my account...

And strong possibility makes sell off in case of Nvidia miss, that stock really has got out of hand IMO, so maybe a little patience is in order anyway

I would suggest sitting still could still be a good idea. Strong bounce that I expected for Friday, but just came in late has put me in the bearish camp as fast as a model S Plaid. So my plans have changed all of a sudden. Got back in the short-term -CC 200's (yes!) and -cc 227.5 as of just yet... Closed some -P that I want to write again at the bottom. Still no cash alas.. (oh yeah, bought some puts KRE, JPM and WFC for monthly sept '23 with those. Might become ugly as the China story I have been telling moths too early is now coming through. Brace for 2008-flashbacks!)

 

[OrthoSurg]

Didn’t have time to buy the LEAPS at close Friday. Finished my OR day at 4:15PM.

I have a FOMO feeling this morning

 

[Max Plaid]

I would suggest sitting still could still be a good idea. Strong bounce that I expected for Friday, but just came in late has put me in the bearish camp as fast as a model S Plaid. So my plans have changed all of a sudden. Got back in the short-term -CC 200's (yes!) and -cc 227.5 as of just yet... Closed some -P that I want to write again at the bottom. Still no cash alas.. (oh yeah, bought some puts KRE, JPM and WFC for monthly sept '23 with those. Might become ugly as the China story I have been telling moths too early is now coming through. Brace for 2008-flashbacks!)

Well I still have the buy order I put in at open stuck in my account, so I can't do anything even if I wanted to!

I called the broker, they see the issue, they said they didn't get confirmation back from the "market" on th cancel and they had to contact someone, I suppose the clearing house, or whatever...

Might turn out to be expensive or work out well, no idea, but I am very surprised with this bounce today, makes no sense right now - in mid-September, yes, but not now

 

[dl003]

Well I still have the buy order I put in at open stuck in my account, so I can't do anything even if I wanted to!

I called the broker, they see the issue, they said they didn't get confirmation back from the "market" on th cancel and they had to contact someone, I suppose the clearing house, or whatever...

Might turn out to be expensive or work out well, no idea, but I am very surprised with this bounce today, makes no sense right now - in mid-September, yes, but not now

XPEV reported better than expected earnings. Considering the main reason pulling TSLA this far down is concerns regarding China economic data, this looks like a sweet spot for, at least, a DCB. TSLA almost touched the lower uptrend channel on Friday with daily RSI touching 30. This indicates a bounce was more likely than not, looking at past price actions. This is not a FOMO rally so I don't think the mid September timing is relevant here. The drop from 298 was very aggressive which accelerated the potential pivot.

I'm not saying 212 was the bottom for good, but if we see another spike tomorrow to take out 230, I think we're in for a bigger DCB, at the minimum. Same scenario as when I made the 250 bet earlier this year, just on a smaller timescale.

 

[BornToFly]

I debated closing my Jan 2024 350 strike CC on Friday when they were only $2.7. I kept them for further downside protection (they would get cheaper to buy back if the SP kept dropping). I guess we will have to see what happens in the near future. If we hit 350 in January and I have to roll up and can't make money on those for a year, at least my BPSs will all expire OTM, and I can fund my lifestyle by doing the same number of "safe" 2025 BPSs. At least now I know that the number of BPSs I have can be supported by my account down to an SP of 100....

I did open some naked calls for Friday with 267.5 strike. I wish the strike was a little higher, but probably safe for Friday....

 

[rikkert]

Dec 2025 $165 will return ~70% if stock goes up 35% to $300 in next few months, so leverage (for now) of 2x right?

You are right. Maybe optionsprofitcalculator displayed invalid pricing data before the market opened? Or I must have clicked on the wrong expiry date.

So it was too good to be true.

I'm not sure if 2x leverage is worth the risk and mental strain.

 

[Max Plaid]

Still waiting too see what to do... thing is this isn't just TSLA, a lot of stock rallying, TSLA more because it was hammered down more

Thing is, I see no reason for this, so I think it's a dead cat. Bond yields are up, highest mortgage rates since 2000, doesn't seem like great signs for the equity markets and it seems fake

Anyway, plan B, as of now - and I re-evaluate this every few minutes - would be to roll the -c210 to -c225, gives a fighting chance to expire/roll forwards

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Still waiting too see what to do... thing is this isn't just TSLA, a lot of stock rallying, TSLA more because it was hammered down more

Thing is, I see no reason for this, so I think it's a dead cat. Bond yields are up, highest mortgage rates since 2000, doesn't seem like great signs for the equity markets and it seems fake

Anyway, plan B, as of now - and I re-evaluate this every few minutes - would be to roll the -c210 to -c225, gives a fighting chance to expire/roll forwards

Honda and Acura announced they'll use nacs this weekend.. not that it's a good reason for a rally but nacs adoption seemed to coincide with our most recent rally so the news could be contributing to this green day so far

 

[Knightshade]

Honda and Acura announced they'll use nacs this weekend.. not that it's a good reason for a rally but nacs adoption seemed to coincide with our most recent rally so the news could be contributing to this green day so far

It's an even sillier reason than previous announcements given neither actually makes or sells any EVs.

And the ones they PLAN/hope to sell in the next year or two are just rebadged GMs, based on a platform even GM can barely make any of (which is the reason they're going to NACS- because GM already said they were)

 

[BornToFly]

I think the massive drop in the last month involved a lot of short selling, and some are forced to cover today. They might be able to resume their shenanigans again soon and push it down further in the subsequent days. On the other hand, we are oversold, and with Cybertrucks popping out of the factory like bunnies now, and record quarter in China, etc., institutions maybe buying again and we might have seen the bottom. Who the heck knows....

 

[Cherry Wine]

As of right now, the only active position I have are 5x 8/25 -p220s. Currently down about 500% on those, lol...but I'm not yet convinced they don't expire worthless. Not interested in selling calls down here just yet on such a long losing streak.

Going to let my 8/25 -p220s ride for now...will look to close them at around $0.25 if the opportunity presents itself.

Dipped my toes in the water with some CCs and opened some 8/25 -c260s. I originally opened these at -250c, but closed on the dip after open for some realized profit and re-opened at the $260 strike for a total of $0.39 per share. Will look to sell more at 270-280 strikes if we continue to rise this week.