SpeedyEddy
Active Member
settled for (still, IV not moving any more) a 25% profit around NVDA SP 465 (being 1.25 per contract on average, still nice for sitting out 2 days of volatility)
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I on the other hand am still hanging on to this week's -C200 and -C227,5, waiting for a better intraday dip and maybe even thinking about rolling them on Friday if needed. Still not too bullish.I tried to use the dip to get out of this week's 120x -c230, which may be safe, or may not, but decided I prefer to err on the cautious side
Out a sell order at $4.9, to make a token 50c profit on each, and planned to rewrite at -c240
The price hit around $230.9, but only 2x got bought, and then the SP went straight to $234
Someone talked about this before, when MACD and RSI diverge from SP, eventually SP follows the same trajectory? I'm sure this will not age well
Generally true but please don't use the 1m chart. It's like trying to predict the weather by observing atoms.Someone talked about this before, when MACD and RSI diverge from SP, eventually SP follows the same trajectory? I'm sure this will not age well
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Ok. Unless 242 is breached and held, I'm still looking for the next leg down before the next big leg up, regardless of whether NVDA does well this afternoon or not. Today call flow is still strong, but it lacks the outperformance vs QQQ. Looks like derisking by sellers instead of organic buying by buyers.
Closed the 8/25 -c260s and -p220s today for decent profits each. Will look to open new positions off of NVDA earnings movement, if any.
my NVDA BCS are now toast. I guess I'll be rolling them out after 1pm EST (so that theta drains out of them first).
if 242 is held into the close tmr there could be a big squeeze in the coming days. YMMV.
Remember, Jackson Hole is tomorrow and Friday and MOST of those Governors don’t live at 6,500 ft. Year round so they are likely to be LIGHT HEADED and make silly / stupid comments.. And don’t even get me started if they start drinking!.. We could see across the market and high growth stocks (which HAVE done nicely in the past 7 days) pull back quickly to their most recent sub 50 day and closer to the 100’s day. I think call sellers had to buy NVDA after hours, and are still buying and will get clear, then hope to push it down somewhere closer to $475 very quickly, certainly by Friday.
Yes thats why I have to see the close tomorrow. Every stock in the market looks like its done with the pullback. if we get the confirnation tomorrow, it will put SPY 470 on the radar. There will be no place for shorts to hide. Im not saying this to stoke FOMO but as a warning. If you are net short the market or afraid you will lose your TSLA shares, better have a rescue plan now in case 242 doesnt hold tomorrow. If your entire strategy depends on 242 not holding and the market squeezes into the close tomorrow, you are going to have a very bad time.
Thanks for this.
For those of us holding shares for scalping, what would be the floor (to get out) if it falls in pre-market or trading hours tomorrow. NFA of course.
For example I bought straight shares in the $235-$237 area to hold for a scalp after it held today, to ride the next wave up and get out at apex (and re-enter after retracement is done).
Was itching to sell $241 earlier in AH but don’t want to miss any gap-up that might come overnight or run tomorrow—since it appears QQQ reclaimed the 50-day which can help sentiment.
Id say set your SL at breakeven then let it ride. the way it looks right now, only unexpected bad news of unknown magnitude can sink it meaningfully premarket tomorrow. Well have to revisit if that happens. The narrative right now is: spending and investment has slowed down like the Feds want, BUT AI is going to help us do more with less, creating new industries and sources of revenue. I personally dont think JPow is going to turn into a hawk tomorrow to purposefully kill this narrative. Hes just going to be his usual cautious, data dependent self, singing the same tune that has failed to throw a wrench in this market for the entirety of 2023.
As usual, just sharing my thoughts, this time on how to extract myself from 118x -x230's this week, if only they'd all closed out yesterday when my limit order was hit... pff!!
Obviously I'm very wary of the upside from here, but I'm also very aware that when it's "obvious" the stock is going to go up, it often doesn't, so I'm inclined to take a bit of a wait-and-see apporach
Normally I'd use straddles to get the call strikes up, but I'm low on cash after recent put assignments and can only cover 10x ATM puts, so what am I thinking, let's assume a $240 close on Friday, this closes-out 1/3rd of the calls. Obviously brings a risk of DITM puts if there's a pull-back, but of course the calls then would lose value and/or the SP would stay around $240, so both the puts and calls could be rolled, again knocking out some contracts...
The -c265's are optional, probably would not bother with those at this moment in time
Obviously I'm very wary of the upside from here, but I'm also very aware that when it's "obvious" the stock is going to go up, it often doesn't, so I'm inclined to take a bit of a wait-and-see apporach
Normally I'd use straddles to get the call strikes up, but I'm low on cash after recent put assignments and can only cover 10x ATM puts, so what am I thinking, let's assume a $240 close on Friday, this closes-out 1/3rd of the calls. Obviously brings a risk of DITM puts if there's a pull-back, but of course the calls then would lose value and/or the SP would stay around $240, so both the puts and calls could be rolled, again knocking out some contracts...
The -c265's are optional, probably would not bother with those at this moment in time
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I'm a little wary of the current bounce being short lived before we dive back down into next week to test the uptrend line again. My wariness sort of aligns with this MTM video from today.
I note that a similar thing happened around Powell's Jackson Hole speech last year (August 26 2022). TSLA peaked near the open that Friday at $302 and then sold off all day down to $286 in AH and then bottomed at around $266 late the next week before rebounding over $300 again.
So I'm sticking to minimal long leverage until we hit the $216-$222 range or until it's clear we will remain in an uptrend.
I note that a similar thing happened around Powell's Jackson Hole speech last year (August 26 2022). TSLA peaked near the open that Friday at $302 and then sold off all day down to $286 in AH and then bottomed at around $266 late the next week before rebounding over $300 again.
So I'm sticking to minimal long leverage until we hit the $216-$222 range or until it's clear we will remain in an uptrend.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Only a breach of 242 (incl +242 close) is to be feared IMHO, but then really close/brace for impact, but my skin in this -CC ITM game is only two contracts. With your numbers I would be terrified too. there are more guru’s out there counting on a last dip (i.e. higher low!!!) around 216- 224 and if broken powerfully even 180 being in sight. but that would presumably take 1 roll into for next week. I wish you very good luck!
Another data point is if we turn on the ETH chart, TSLA has touched all of my required points for a complete retracement. Although I'm still wait and see on the subject of 242, I'm leaning bullish here. Ideally it should have touched the white 4 at 224.45 but 226.56 is still considered satisfactory. I'm not going to tell you what to do, because what I do has got me into my own troubles. Hope you'll get out of this unscathed.
If this is a DCB, then its target is going to be 255-257. If 212 was the real bottom, then sky can be the limit here. We're at least looking at a 280-291 gap fill in September.
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TLSA not looking strong in pre-market. Rejected 242 a few times. I wonder if it dumps at open.
Oh I'm not terrified, not my first rodeo, I can easily take the 118x and roll them to next year 20x -c200's, but I'm more interested in solving it this year, and as said, not trusting the current bounce, but yes, there's always a get-out with a roll
Looking a lot stronger than yesterday's PM, and then look what happened
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