Real "fuel" cost comparison ICE versus Model S

[gray]

I'm still trying to get FPL in Miami to introduce a TOU tiered pricing structure, but at an overall (fully-taxed and all-inclusive) price of $0.12/kWh I'm not complaining. Roadster and Model S both make our ICE cars look like gas-guzzling dinosaurs who are very expensive to feed.

First let me make it clear that I think reducing fossil fuel usage is a net positive and a good idea in general. However, the capital costs of the model S can easily exceed the cost of gas.

This was our back-of-the-envelope calculation:

Assuming my gas car is $26,000 USD, gets 25 mpg, gas is $4/gallon and electricity is completely free.

The $34,000 difference, given $4/gal gas buys 8500 gallons of gas. That means my base model S at $60,000 must travel 212,500 miles to break even. Assuming mechanical breakdown of the gas car brings that number down to 180,000 miles, Model S service is free (as opposed to the $600/year), and there are no battery replacements, it would take a little over 11 years to break even at an above-average 16,000 miles/year driven.

The reality is that our car (hybrid) gets 40mpg and was $23,000 new (we simply aren't going to be buying a $60k luxury car - so that comparison is invalid), so that breakeven goes to 370,000 miles. Even assuming that the cost of service brings the difference to 300,000 miles, we'd have to drive a little over 18 years to break even at an above-average 16,000 miles/year driven.

We've just come to the conclusion that we're not buying the Model S to save any money, and it's not a particularly useful exercise to try to justify the cost on that basis. That does not mean that there are not many, many other very good reasons to purchase a Model S (in particular the need to prove consumer demand for a business case for the research,development, and production of electric cars).

 

[bellwilliam]

First let me make it clear that I think reducing fossil fuel usage is a net positive and a good idea in general. However, the capital costs of the model S can easily exceed the cost of gas.

This was our back-of-the-envelope calculation:

Assuming my gas car is $26,000 USD, gets 25 mpg, gas is $4/gallon and electricity is completely free.

The $34,000 difference, given $4/gal gas buys 8500 gallons of gas. That means my base model S at $60,000 must travel 212,500 miles to break even. Assuming mechanical breakdown of the gas car brings that number down to 180,000 miles, Model S service is free (as opposed to the $600/year), and there are no battery replacements, it would take a little over 11 years to break even at an above-average 16,000 miles/year driven.

The reality is that our car (hybrid) gets 40mpg and was $23,000 new (we simply aren't going to be buying a $60k luxury car - so that comparison is invalid), so that breakeven goes to 370,000 miles. Even assuming that the cost of service brings the difference to 300,000 miles, we'd have to drive a little over 18 years to break even at an above-average 16,000 miles/year driven.

We've just come to the conclusion that we're not buying the Model S to save any money, and it's not a particularly useful exercise to try to justify the cost on that basis. That does not mean that there are not many, many other very good reasons to purchase a Model S (in particular the need to prove consumer demand for a business case for the research,development, and production of electric cars).

imo, We do justify its cost in our own way. ignoring whether it is fuel or electric. P85 is comparable to a ~$70k luxury car. Interior isn't quite as good as Audi or Mercedes, but performance (than a $70k Audi) and interior space are better. factor in lower cost of operating, it is worth the $100k to me.

I don't buy Mercedes or Audi (do lease them), #1 reason being maintenance cost. Tesla being so simple, lot less thing to break (which is why I chose STD suspension), there is no engine, transmission, radiator, water pump, high pressure fuel pump, serpentine belts, timing belt, cat, head, muffler, drive shaft, valve cover gasket, rear main seal.....to break or leak. I love Tesla's simplicity, for that, I am willing to pay a premium.

 

[AustinPowers]

Well, as I wrote, "most these days, methinks." Key words being "most," "these days," and "methinks." ;-) Sorry, it doesn't apply to your older phone (I haven't had one like that in years, but I remember that battery type, that is best discharged fully), but it does show how the phone-car analogy breaks down easily. :crying:

I know, I am a communication dinosaur when it comes to modern mobile devices. :wink:

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AP, I just finished a test weekend with a Nissan Leaf. I live up on the Alb at 824m. We had -10 deg. C this weekend. The Leaf used nearly exactly 30 kWh / 100 km for the 255 km I drove it from wall to wheel. Range at these conditions with the heater at 19 deg. was down to 95 km from the 160 km advertised. I'm really disappointed that all those critics where right.

Just saying that you should AT LEAST calculate with 30 kWh / 100 km during winter.

At my current rate at 0,25 ct / kWh a Leaf would have only marginally lower operating costs than my >200 PS AWD diesel. And guess what's more fun to drive ...

Thanks for the input. Yes, the Leaf doesn't sound like much fun to drive from what I've heard. In that respect the Model S is in a different universe.

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imo, We do justify its cost in our own way. ignoring whether it is fuel or electric. P85 is comparable to a ~$70k luxury car. Interior isn't quite as good as Audi or Mercedes, but performance (than a $70k Audi) and interior space are better. factor in lower cost of operating, it is worth the $100k to me.

I don't buy Mercedes or Audi (do lease them), #1 reason being maintenance cost. Tesla being so simple, lot less thing to break (which is why I chose STD suspension), there is no engine, transmission, radiator, water pump, high pressure fuel pump, serpentine belts, timing belt, cat, head, muffler, drive shaft, valve cover gasket, rear main seal.....to break or leak. I love Tesla's simplicity, for that, I am willing to pay a premium.

Not to be mistaken, I didn't start the thread because I wanted to justify the purchase of a Model S by its fuel savings, I just wanted to see how the energy usage of the Model S weighs in on the electricity bill under realistic conditions comparable to those I experience in my ICE. Perhaps the title of the thread was a bit misleading.

I wouldn't mind buying the Model S, if it delivered what matters to me in a car at such an expensive price point (I wouldn't mind spending say 90K Euro on a car, but that would have to be quite a car.). Some things it does deliver (joy of driving, no gas/diesel, great design, frunk), many other things it doesn't - currently (AWD, physical buttons for the main functions, interior comparable to Audi/BMW/Merc, modern tech options like LED lights/HUD/parking sensors/power-folding mirrors, skibag/fold-down rear seats, etc.).
That is not to say I think the Model is a bad car, by no means. It is just to say that for me, at the moment, the Model S is not the ideal EV I was looking forward to buying. Perhaps a Model S 2.0 or even the Gen III will be that vehicle for me. I have not given up hope yet.

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

First let me make it clear that I think reducing fossil fuel usage is a net positive and a good idea in general. However, the capital costs of the model S can easily exceed the cost of gas.

Absolutely, for those who are making a significant upgrade. But I'm downgrading from a Roadster, so the logic is different. And if we're comparing to an ICE as in my previous comment, the car I would have bought if the Model S had not been available for me to buy would have been a $107,000 BMW M5. So my comparison is:

I save $5,500 on the purchase of the car,
plus I save thousands of dollars on gas at 12 mpg,
plus I get free supercharging and free road-trip fuel for life,
plus it's a joy to drive and operate,
plus I feel EV's are entirely superior to ICE's in every way,
plus the car is environmentally responsible and sustainable,
plus I help to move the market and the technology forward as an early adopter,
plus the car is gorgeous and everyone goes ga-ga over it,
plus I like to be different.

All those other great reasons to buy, and the darn thing is even cheaper than the ICE I would have bought otherwise. What's not to love?

 

[AustinPowers]

...
All those other great reasons to buy, and the darn thing is even cheaper than the ICE I would have bought otherwise. What's not to love?

For you, definitely nothing. (I wish we were in your position)

For people living in Germany (and being used to German cars of that price point), quite a few things. But the first, and for many here main, thing is, that the Model S here is quite a bit more expensive than its rivals - thanks to tax, import duty, transport etc.
So not only do you have to pay more here for the S than for its rivals, you also get quite a bit less for that money in many areas that people over here value in a car - and I don't mean range!

For comparison,
I just configured
a MS P85
with 19'' wheels, pano-roof, metallic paint, tech package, sound system, parcel shelf
and I arrive at 103,500 Euro / 135,000 Dollar.

Then I configured
an Audi S6 Avant Quattro (wagon, for comparable storage, S version for comparable performance, 0-60 in 4.6 seconds, around 20 MPG mixed)
with 19'' wheels and many high-end options - LED headlights, adaptive high-beam lighting, adaptive cruise control, power folding electrochromatic mirrors, the top satnav system, digital radio and tv receiver, DVD player with changer, rear-seat entertainment, B&O sound system, acoustic glass windows, active-noice-cancellation, homelink, ambient lighting, leather seats, pano-roof, Bluetooth-connectivity, back-up-camera, auto-parking, sun-shades for rear and rear side windows, pre-heating-system, even a tow hitch
and I arrive at 102,550 Euro / 133,500 Dollar
And that is not even taking into account the far superior standard equipment on the S6, including AWD.

So you see, that is the kind of competition the Model S (especially the Performance version) will be up against here.
And for people here, apart from the cheaper running costs (which don't really matter very much to people who buy 100k Euro cars), the Model S has very few things to offer that would make it superior in any way.

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

The difference in costs due to to tax, transport, and such when shipping a Model S to Germany certainly wipes out any potential cost savings. And while I believe a good chunk of the minimalism in the Model S interior is deliberate, I would personally like to see some of the things you mentioned, like the LED headlights that follow turns, adaptive cruise control, parking sensors, folding mirrors, and more cupholders and storage.

Still, I don't agree that "the Model S has very few things to offer that would make it superior in any way." After 18 months of driving a Roadster, I keep telling people: a Tesla is the first car of the future generation of vehicles. It drives like no ICE could ever drive: superior in every. single. way. BMW is no longer the "ultimate driving machine". I value the environmental and sustainability benefits of the EV very much, but I would still choose the Model S based on driving dynamics alone even if I cared not a whit for the environment. If I were choosing between the Tesla S and the Audi S6 at the prices you mention, and even with a further price disadvantage for the Model S, I would still have chosen the Model S.

Spend some "quality time" with a Tesla and you'll see that not everything the car offers can be quantified and cleanly measured either in performance numbers or in feature lists. It is different, and better. Markedly so.

 

[techmaven]

Dominion Power in Virginia has a very low EV charging rate using a separate meter... works out to about 7 cents per kWh for 8 hours overnight (need to charge at specific times). Over the course of 60,000 miles and 375 watts/mile, that's $1,575 in electricity. A comparable ICE would be 22 MPG, $3.75/gallon super, which works out to $10,227. That's > $8,500 per 60k miles. I figure with a battery pack replacement at 120k miles, the difference in electricity vs. gasoline cost will pay for the battery pack replacement costs in Virginia. That is assuming roughly the same increases in costs between electricity and gasoline which is tough to predict. Even doubling the electricity costs would be comparable to battery replacement costs. So to me, the difference in price is to pay for the battery costs which eliminates a huge potential downside of EVs. Obviously, if we move to CA, then this all goes out the window. At those CA electricity rates, everyone that can afford it should be doing grid tie solar - the costs have plummeted. Wholesale Solar has grid tie systems which should price to roughly $2-$2.25/watt installed.

Anyways, at 1000 full charge cycles which consists of roughly average 55 kWh of the 85 kWH pack and an aggressive 375 watts/mile, that's roughly 145k miles for the service life of the 85kWh battery. In Virginia, that's roughly $20k in fuel savings in the lifespan of the battery. Now, I hope that the Model S battery pack can handle more than 1000 full charge cycles and I hope that averaging 145 miles per full charge is on the very low side, but those are the boundaries I'm using to check feasibility. A 60 kWh battery would have a correspondingly much lower life span in terms of miles. Also, a more reasonable 350 watts/mile and correspondingly more reasonable 170 miles per full charge would get 170,000 miles before battery change. Compared to an ICE car, it is likely that major engine work will have to be done in any sporting car when we are talking about this many miles.

 

[gregincal]

So you see, that is the kind of competition the Model S (especially the Performance version) will be up against here.
And for people here, apart from the cheaper running costs (which don't really matter very much to people who buy 100k Euro cars), the Model S has very few things to offer that would make it superior in any way.

Except, in my opinion, a far superior driving experience to any ICE. No ICE engine, no matter how powerful, will ever be as effortless and smooth as the transmissionless motor of the S. I'm never buying an ICE again.

 

[AustinPowers]

Except, in my opinion, a far superior driving experience to any ICE. No ICE engine, no matter how powerful, will ever be as effortless and smooth as the transmissionless motor of the S. I'm never buying an ICE again.

Except that the driving experience is just one of many factors when buying a car.
I would agree with you if the Model S was mainly aimed at sports car fanatics (but even then, for the pure joy and excitement of driving I would probably buy an Ariel Atom - at a fraction of the price of a Model S). But the Model S is a huge premium family sedan. And when it comes to that kind of customer group - and that price range - most people want more than just joy of (effortless) performance and handling. They want loads of practical features, gizmos, usability, and unquestionable build quality without strange things like misaligned panels, glitches in the UI, self-opening doors, a trunk light that does many things but not light the trunk, and so on.

Again, let me make it clear I like the Model S very much in spite of all the things I consider as shortcomings. I would love to be able to test-drive one to perhaps finally give me the Tesla grin I have heard so much about. It is just that I think the Model S could and should have been so much more - it could really have been the perfect car, and it wouldn't even have taken so much effort to achieve that goal. It's like with the missing parking sensors or power folding mirrors. No apparent reason for their omission, but a very bad aftertaste because things like that are standard (or at least optional) on almost any car available on the market.

 

[dsm363]

Again, let me make it clear I like the Model S very much in spite of all the things I consider as shortcomings. I would love to be able to test-drive one to perhaps finally give me the Tesla grin I have heard so much about. It is just that I think the Model S could and should have been so much more.

I think that will come in time. I'd imagine after Model X launch they can refocus on adding things that are missing (ACC...etc) that people expect in that price category.

 

[bellwilliam]

Op. IMO, p85 compares to RS6/7. p85 is faster (0-60 in 4.0) than S6. Audi have awd, which helps with launch. You should look at 1/4 mile for more accurate comparison.

handling - Audi will never compare:
1. Audi is a front heavy pig. Tesla is about 53 rear 47 front. Close to ideal (no, 50/50 is not ideal, a misconception, ~55 rear 45 front is ideal)
2. Audi use strut, Tesla is unequal a-arm. Tesla is far superior.
3. Audi's engine stick out front of front axle. Tesla's weight are all contained between 2 axles. Not even close here.
4. Heavy battery is very low. Center of gravity is as low as a corvette. All German sedans are not even close.

 

[CDT]

Amen! I have a Leaf now and a Model S on order. Nothing beats an EV as far as driving dynamics. I was talking to an MS owner who said his Audi felt clunky after driving a Tesla.