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Q4'16 Delivery Estimates

What is your Q4'16 Delivery Estimate?


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Delivery time to EU is 6-8 weeks. China should be also about 2 months from what I've understood. So pretty much any EU VIN confirmed in a quarter is delivered in the next one. In a steady state it matters not, in growing production and deliveries it matters as deliveries in EU/Asia would be more correlated to prior quarters production than current Q.
 
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The reason I ask is if they could batch the deliveries to send out the longer shipments earlier in Dec, and then maybe do easier deliveries the week before Christmas, and then I assume last week was down for the Holidays, that would open up the possibility of getting the in-transit number down which IIRC is what happened last year. If they were able to deliver everything produced the delivery number could get close to 30k IMO.
I don't expect the in-transit number to drop because the factory was running full tilt at least through 12/26 and most if not all of those cars would not have been delivered in Q4.
 
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I don't expect the in-transit number to drop because the factory was running full tilt at least through 12/26 and most if not all of those cars would not have been delivered in Q4.
A glance at the delivery tracker google sheets is a boon for these types of questions. Even from a small sample size, the abrupt change from US customer production to foreign customer production is remarkable. Looks like US cars were being produced up until around 22/23 December followed by an abrupt change to European production (seemingly the factory was not closed last week of December). Many of the cars that were produced in the week up to Christmas were also delivered by the end of the year (US customers).
 
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That's a complete misread. Examine the factory to delivery timelines and model the delivery logistics. The numbers are not the same either way. Take the exact same production and compare the resulting deliveries if you do no regional batching and allocation versus extreme regional batching and allocation. The resulting numbers would be vastly different.
Maybe the focus should be on the number produced, rather than the number delivered?
 
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Maybe the focus should be on the number produced, rather than the number delivered?
I'd rather just focus on are they making good cars, batteries, solar systems? This quarterly stuff is sort of interesting and useful for investment purposes but all that really matters is if they are making good stuff, treating people well, and if they are able to do it while paying their bills.
 
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A glance at the delivery tracker google sheets is a boon for these types of questions. Even from a small sample size, the abrupt change from US customer production to foreign customer production is remarkable. Looks like US cars were being produced up until around 22/23 December followed by an abrupt change to European production (seemingly the factory was not closed last week of December). Many of the cars that were produced in the week up to Christmas were also delivered by the end of the year (US customers).
Interesting, I assumed the factory would have been closed last week. Would you mind linking to the spreadsheet if you have a chance, is it part of TMC? So I guess assuming pretty much everything up to the 23rd got delivered then probably under 2400 in-transits?
 
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Click on the google spreadsheets hyperlink.
Model S Order & Delivery Tracker

What ever got produced in the last ~8 days didn't get delivered would be my guess, also a bunch of RHD MX for places like UK, Australia apparently have only very recently started to be delivered, and then add in some US stragglers. My guess is around 3000-3500 in transit.
While admittedly an outlier this is the latest car completed in the quarter that got delivered (at least in the spreadsheet):

Prod Start Prod End Delivered on
12/15/2016 12/27/2016 12/31/2016

OTOH there are California cars completed in mid-December that don't show as delivered.
 
I'll be optimistic and estimate 27,601 produced, and 30,150 delivered.

Edit: I'm not convinced the factory was running last week, so I'm gonna drop my production number back to 25,300, but raise the delivery number to 30,450.
 
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