-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
NigelM
Recovering Member
14524 was a factory delivery on 7/01 so the actual number nationwide for 6/30 was probably around 14,400'ish? (Assuming some cars were in transit and some awaiting delivery at service centers)
NigelM
Recovering Member
Might have been, he posted here on 7/01. It's going to be a guess on the exact number of deliveries because we don't know how many were still in transit. E.g. You can see that 14454 was not due in NJ until 7/18.
My best estimate would still be around 14,400 cars delivered by end June.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Are we thinking vins are sequential again? I haven't been following the vins closely since it was determined that they were skipping numbers. If they are sequential that puts the estimated number at ~5700 - 500? That are on the boat to EU?
There was 2950 in 2012, 4900 in Q1, 5150 in Q2 for a total of 13,000 delivered.
Are they skipping any VIN's? I know that they have been building cars out of sequence, but they always come back to fill all the gaps right? Gap fill theory?
Yuri_G
Member
Tesla had many European VINs assigned in the 14-16k range in Q2, which are beginning to be delivered now. The question is how many cars can Tesla deliver in Europe this quarter?
My predictions are here:
https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/ropen.do?rid=z1g20ee44f8e6c1e644a99dce338c06669d57
https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/ropen.do?rid=z1g20ee44f8e6c1e644a99dce338c06669d57
Made some mistakes, fixed them, and added Q4 projections (since this is further away, it is probably a mindless calculation) here:
https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/ropen.do?rid=z1g202dad0bd5e4764379b6019d246495876d
I was messing around with some of the information on Model S orders and deliveries and came up with these numbers:
Confirmed Orders:
3/21 - Bttrfly: VIN # 9555
6/28 - Nirvanaman: VIN # 16160
8/29 - LA Spark: VIN # 21576
Last 5 months order rate about 2400/month or 28,850/year
last 2 months order rate about 2700/month or 32,500/year
Deliveries(I wanted to look a month ahead of the end of the quarter, because the deliveries get a little crazy at Q end):
3/2 - NeverEnough: VIN # 5868
5/30 - svoelpel: VIN # 11129
8/29 - Brianstorms: VIN# 18630
Deliveries between 3/2 and 5/30: 5261 (5150 delivered in Q1)
Deliveries between 5/30 and 8/29: 7501.
It's nice to see demand increasing to above 30k/year and it will be interesting to see if 1mo prior to earnings deliveries is a good model to project quarterly deliveries. I would guess you can take about 500-700 off the number for European deliveries in transit and loaners and be in the ballpark.
Hope everyone is having a good labor day...
Confirmed Orders:
3/21 - Bttrfly: VIN # 9555
6/28 - Nirvanaman: VIN # 16160
8/29 - LA Spark: VIN # 21576
Last 5 months order rate about 2400/month or 28,850/year
last 2 months order rate about 2700/month or 32,500/year
Deliveries(I wanted to look a month ahead of the end of the quarter, because the deliveries get a little crazy at Q end):
3/2 - NeverEnough: VIN # 5868
5/30 - svoelpel: VIN # 11129
8/29 - Brianstorms: VIN# 18630
Deliveries between 3/2 and 5/30: 5261 (5150 delivered in Q1)
Deliveries between 5/30 and 8/29: 7501.
It's nice to see demand increasing to above 30k/year and it will be interesting to see if 1mo prior to earnings deliveries is a good model to project quarterly deliveries. I would guess you can take about 500-700 off the number for European deliveries in transit and loaners and be in the ballpark.
Hope everyone is having a good labor day...
Has anyone else been watching the vins from the delivery thread? VIN #14,524 was delivered 7/01 at what looks like the factory, so should be fresh off the line(Model S Delivery Update - Page 536) and VIN #21,591 just got a delivery date of 9/28, in Arizona (Model S Delivery Update - Page 558) That is a 7,067 VIN difference!! while all these cars certainly won't be delivered, in transit to Europe,Marketing, ETC. it looks as though they are set to crush delivery #'s as long as there are no production hiccups. Hope this makes everyones holiday weekend a little happier!
cfOH
Member
I've been maintaining a VIN-tracking spreadsheet and graph over on the Tesla Motors forum. I update it every few days in case any of you might find it useful:
http://craigfroehle.com/posted/TeslaVINs.png
http://craigfroehle.com/posted/TeslaVINs.png
Aim - I was VIN 32XX and it was assigned very late 2012, perhaps even 12/31, as someone about 20 higner than me had a 2013 VIN while I had 2012.
Tesla might be on an inexorable march to produce 100 more cars per week, each quarter, starting Q1. 400s, early in the year, 500s towards mid, looks like 600s during the Fall, and perhaps we climb to 700s year end. I know Elon said 800/week by end of 2014, but I think it will hit that during 1st or 2nd quarter 2014 (guesstrapolation on my part).
VIN 19110 is scheduled for delivery in December (Dutch). So we have January-October production of 19110 - 32XX = 15,900 cars? I.e. 2013 production of ~19,000 cars?
(Yes, I know this is wrong. Just pointing out that your assumptions - that VINs are produced in sequence - are way off.)
(Yes, I know this is wrong. Just pointing out that your assumptions - that VINs are produced in sequence - are way off.)
Thumper
Active Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I hope your wrong for a number of reasons. First, I want a G3, second, it would be a marketing nightmare if Tesla fails to deliver their "mass market" affordable car and instead build another high end vehicle, and third it would give the competition even more time to fill the void in the $35K range. As for battery capacity issues they do have three years to address that and Elon said that a build rate of more than a couple hundred thousand cars a year would stress battery capacity, which sounds as if they could do a few years of 100K+ G3's plus 40+ S and X's and still be OK.
austinEV - isn't there already talk of restarting the Roadster? It was supposed to start in 2014 but there hasn't been much talk. Maybe call it a Model-R ?
There is perhaps battery constraints today with 22K per year. Telsa says it is in talks or signed with Samsung for more cells to supplement the Panasonic vendor. This also is a two country sourcing which is a good choice. Apparently they talked to LG Chem as well (Korean) who has a plant in Michigan running very low utilization right now for its size.
We don't know what's going to happen. We don't even know if our guesses are right. What you may want to do is "talk EVs" with common consumers. Go the the mall and chat up people visiting the Telsa store (if you live near one). Find out how many care or don't care about going the EV route. Find out how many are already deeply in debt but still want to get that Tesla. The cost of gasoline is moderately high in the USA but in places like Canada, Europe and Asia, gasoline is much higher than the USA. The US market still lives with too-cheap gasoline and diesel compared to the rest of the world. We are on the cusp of breaking the economy with higher gas prices. At the same time, car companies have shown higher sales lately, with more high-mpg vehicles sold. We already have less employment due to vast under-employment and further Obamacare pressure on job hours. We hire more and more foreign workers and are sending a lot of our jobs overseas. What would help the US is not a $35K EV but rather a $20K EV. Maybe a 120 mile commuter with general safety and style. Maybe something like a Ford Focus, Chevy Cruze, etc. It must be cheap and it must be made in the USA. We would export them to all other countries with gasoline cost pressures. If we don't make it - China will and we will end up importing them. Either from Tesla's future China factory (or Mexico) or some other lower cost location. I'd like to see all automakers go for the $20K 120mile EV by 2020 (my 20-challenge). We don't want to see some sort of exclusionary monopoly being built.
Can Tesla make a $35K car? Can they go any lower? It has to be well below $30K to make a difference in our world. Otherwise, all the lower-income folks will be buying $15K ICE vehicles with 35-40mpg (Dodge Dart, Chevy Spark, Smart, Scion, Kia - notice all these are imports). It's cheaper to buy a $15K and pay $5/gal for gas than $30K for an EV. But will Tesla produce an everyman EV or just drop down a little bit into the upper-middle class?
Of course "everyone" says they want a Tesla. Most likely, more of them can't afford what they "want" and go into deep debt to get it. Every company wants to sell to these marks, of course. Read the threads of the people who state "is it financially possible for me to get a Tesla?" People making $100K with mortgage, kids, debt and no savings think it's a smart buy because they will "save on gas".
What won't work are hybrids. Ford has a C-Max Hybrid at 43mpg and costs $29K. Just get a Chevy Cruze or other Ford at $20K or less to "save money". Most people are not green and don't have the resources to "pay to be green". Tesla did it right - Model-S really isn't green - and people are paying for the cool factor first and the "sustainability" second.
Consider that perhaps, Ford and Chevy could make an EV Mustang and Camaro some day soon. Then you start to get more cool factor spread around.
There is perhaps battery constraints today with 22K per year. Telsa says it is in talks or signed with Samsung for more cells to supplement the Panasonic vendor. This also is a two country sourcing which is a good choice. Apparently they talked to LG Chem as well (Korean) who has a plant in Michigan running very low utilization right now for its size.
We don't know what's going to happen. We don't even know if our guesses are right. What you may want to do is "talk EVs" with common consumers. Go the the mall and chat up people visiting the Telsa store (if you live near one). Find out how many care or don't care about going the EV route. Find out how many are already deeply in debt but still want to get that Tesla. The cost of gasoline is moderately high in the USA but in places like Canada, Europe and Asia, gasoline is much higher than the USA. The US market still lives with too-cheap gasoline and diesel compared to the rest of the world. We are on the cusp of breaking the economy with higher gas prices. At the same time, car companies have shown higher sales lately, with more high-mpg vehicles sold. We already have less employment due to vast under-employment and further Obamacare pressure on job hours. We hire more and more foreign workers and are sending a lot of our jobs overseas. What would help the US is not a $35K EV but rather a $20K EV. Maybe a 120 mile commuter with general safety and style. Maybe something like a Ford Focus, Chevy Cruze, etc. It must be cheap and it must be made in the USA. We would export them to all other countries with gasoline cost pressures. If we don't make it - China will and we will end up importing them. Either from Tesla's future China factory (or Mexico) or some other lower cost location. I'd like to see all automakers go for the $20K 120mile EV by 2020 (my 20-challenge). We don't want to see some sort of exclusionary monopoly being built.
Can Tesla make a $35K car? Can they go any lower? It has to be well below $30K to make a difference in our world. Otherwise, all the lower-income folks will be buying $15K ICE vehicles with 35-40mpg (Dodge Dart, Chevy Spark, Smart, Scion, Kia - notice all these are imports). It's cheaper to buy a $15K and pay $5/gal for gas than $30K for an EV. But will Tesla produce an everyman EV or just drop down a little bit into the upper-middle class?
Of course "everyone" says they want a Tesla. Most likely, more of them can't afford what they "want" and go into deep debt to get it. Every company wants to sell to these marks, of course. Read the threads of the people who state "is it financially possible for me to get a Tesla?" People making $100K with mortgage, kids, debt and no savings think it's a smart buy because they will "save on gas".
What won't work are hybrids. Ford has a C-Max Hybrid at 43mpg and costs $29K. Just get a Chevy Cruze or other Ford at $20K or less to "save money". Most people are not green and don't have the resources to "pay to be green". Tesla did it right - Model-S really isn't green - and people are paying for the cool factor first and the "sustainability" second.
Consider that perhaps, Ford and Chevy could make an EV Mustang and Camaro some day soon. Then you start to get more cool factor spread around.
- Status
Similar threads
