Survey: Growing portion of US shoppers are rejecting EVs
Price and charging remain the reason why a growing percentage of shoppers are "very unlikely" to consider an EV. Are there other reasons?
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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
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UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Often the comments are better than the articles... or biased surveys. It's only 21% who claim to be UNLIKELY to buy an EV in 12 months (79% are, wow!).Survey: Growing portion of US shoppers are rejecting EVs
Price and charging remain the reason why a growing percentage of shoppers are "very unlikely" to consider an EV. Are there other reasons?www.greencarreports.com
More people liking EVs than not. The question as reported does beg the question of how many would answer if the question was simply
or even VEHICLE. Surely 79% of people aren't considering buying cars in the next 12 months in USA?
You can read https://www.jdpower.com/business/re...-shoppers-dig-their-heels-internal-combustion instead of the article.
"It’s not all sunshine smooth sailing on the road to the EV future. While the long-term trend in EV market share has grown significantly from 2.6% of all new-vehicle sales in February 2020 to 8.5% in February 2023, sales hit a speed bump in March, with monthly market share falling to 7.3%. Although some month-to-month volatility is to be expected, a closer look at the barriers to EV adoption shows that many new vehicle shoppers are becoming more adamant about their decision to not consider an EV for their next purchase."
"Top-line metrics on overall EV market share, availability and affordability have been on a long-term upward trend, but beneath those headline numbers we are starting to see some consumer behaviors that suggest a possible bifurcation of the automotive marketplace. Notably, when it comes to the percentage of new-vehicle shoppers who say they are “very likely” and “very unlikely” to consider an EV, the number of EV holdouts is growing more. As of this month’s report, 21% of new-vehicle shoppers say they are “very unlikely” to consider an EV, up from 18.9% in February and 17.8% in January. Meanwhile, the percentage of auto shoppers who say they are “very likely” to consider an EV is 26.9% and has been largely flat for the past three months."
"It’s not all sunshine smooth sailing on the road to the EV future. While the long-term trend in EV market share has grown significantly from 2.6% of all new-vehicle sales in February 2020 to 8.5% in February 2023, sales hit a speed bump in March, with monthly market share falling to 7.3%. Although some month-to-month volatility is to be expected, a closer look at the barriers to EV adoption shows that many new vehicle shoppers are becoming more adamant about their decision to not consider an EV for their next purchase."
"Top-line metrics on overall EV market share, availability and affordability have been on a long-term upward trend, but beneath those headline numbers we are starting to see some consumer behaviors that suggest a possible bifurcation of the automotive marketplace. Notably, when it comes to the percentage of new-vehicle shoppers who say they are “very likely” and “very unlikely” to consider an EV, the number of EV holdouts is growing more. As of this month’s report, 21% of new-vehicle shoppers say they are “very unlikely” to consider an EV, up from 18.9% in February and 17.8% in January. Meanwhile, the percentage of auto shoppers who say they are “very likely” to consider an EV is 26.9% and has been largely flat for the past three months."
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Seems very positive for EV adoption.
Few Luddites (probably political or vested motivations which will dissipate in time when faced with EV advantages), otherwise many interested in EVs.
Further info: https://www.jdpower.com/business/EVConsideration
henderrj
Active Member
Luddites, yes. Political motivation, I don't think much of it. I'm an extremely conservative environmentalist. That used to be an oddity, not anymore. In fact most of the people with whom I associate, who would call themselves politically conservative, are pro environment as well. It just took some time to think it out. And, of the people I query that don't want to go EV they are either ignorant, which I can solve, or simply love the shaking and rattling and roaring of the ice engines. They can hang with the steam engine guys in the future!
Not really. I've heard poll results for ages about "consider". Usually doesn't translate into actual results that are even close.
Consumer Reports Poll: Americans want higher fuel standards, hybrid cars from 2011
"A majority (56 percent) say they will consider an electric or hybrid for their next car, but only 16 percent are thinking about a diesel."
"Nearly three-quarters (72 percent) would consider buying some type of hybrid or electric car if they become more widely available over the next 15 years."
Uh.... well, hybrids, the kind you can't plug in never got to much beyond say 10% of new vehicle sales in the US. They require no driver habit changes, no charging considerations, no additional fueling infrastructure nor due to they cause any range anxiety.
Look at BEV sales in the US. They're not even at 10% either and we're about 11.5 years after that poll was taken.
henderrj
Active Member
As we've said many times, it's all about the batteries. They're coming down in price as availability increases. When EVs take over ice is entirely based on when batteries can be built quick enough to populate the number of cars needed. There's at least 20 new battery factories coming online or being built right now. Many have come online in just the last year. It'll be quick once it starts.
It has always been my opinion it has nothing to do directly with batteries. It starts with overall car cost. But IMO, more important is charging time and range. I now have an EV and deal with all this stuff directly. I would never recommend anyone buy an EV unless you have money to burn, want a toy, and have lots of time on your hands to hassle with charging! And I have 100% free electricity to charge as many EV's that I want.
Charging Stations Are Uniquely Vulnerable to Sabotage
EV chargers are a free-for-all for hackers, scammers, scrappers and meat grinders.
jalopnik.com
SalisburySam
Active Member
Seriously? And you got an EV anyway? And having free juice to boot? Methinks someone doth protest too much.
Your EV owning experience has been much different than mine. I love my Model Y, it's super convenient to charge (even on road trips), it's very affordable to maintain, it's the best car I've ever owned, and I recommend EV's to everyone I possibly can.
Nope, for the average person, no way these make sense. As toy, like I am doing, well, I have kept my other 2 ice cars which are used for the long drives and hauling lots of folks around.
If I call someone a troll, is that an inappropriate ad hominem attack?
I mean coming onto a forum about electric cars and then posting in a thead where predictions are made about EV adoption rates and calling EVs a toy only for people with money to burn sounds like a good example for the definition page.
I started with a 2013 Leaf so I am a decade in. My wife and I add up to 200k miles + some. Who knew that 1/3 of my driving life has been in a toy? My leaf cost about $25k after credit so was roughly average back then. Resale dropped like a rock so the depreciation was high but electricity was close to free (had a 5 cent night time rate). Maintenance was free. So overall TCO was reasonable. It was comparable to similar cars. Now we had an ICE (or longer range EV) as a second car and that was mostly necessary.
Now my 2015 S hits 8 years old this month. Depreciation better than average. Fueling and maintenance well below average (like 90% below). Repair costs below average. So I have been far better off than comparable vehicle. Not better than a Camry though. And yes - early days involved some creativity on some trips. But never an issue in the last 5 years. And we were an all EV household.
My wife's 3. That has TCO comparable to a Camry and certainly less than average new vehicle sold. We were in the high 30's purchase cost after TC.
Toys and foolish money indeed...
FWIW, I imagine Musk's antics to be temporarily souring some on EV's in general. I know that I wouldn't buy a Tesla again. And, I could see having a second car as an ICE that we drive rarely. I commute 54 miles a week and I could take the EV 1/2 those days so we could get a second car down to 1500 miles/yr - optimistically. Not worth an EV. Could buy a 10 year old econobox for that. Was commuting much more when we got the second Tesla.
I mean coming onto a forum about electric cars and then posting in a thead where predictions are made about EV adoption rates and calling EVs a toy only for people with money to burn sounds like a good example for the definition page.
I started with a 2013 Leaf so I am a decade in. My wife and I add up to 200k miles + some. Who knew that 1/3 of my driving life has been in a toy? My leaf cost about $25k after credit so was roughly average back then. Resale dropped like a rock so the depreciation was high but electricity was close to free (had a 5 cent night time rate). Maintenance was free. So overall TCO was reasonable. It was comparable to similar cars. Now we had an ICE (or longer range EV) as a second car and that was mostly necessary.
Now my 2015 S hits 8 years old this month. Depreciation better than average. Fueling and maintenance well below average (like 90% below). Repair costs below average. So I have been far better off than comparable vehicle. Not better than a Camry though. And yes - early days involved some creativity on some trips. But never an issue in the last 5 years. And we were an all EV household.
My wife's 3. That has TCO comparable to a Camry and certainly less than average new vehicle sold. We were in the high 30's purchase cost after TC.
Toys and foolish money indeed...
FWIW, I imagine Musk's antics to be temporarily souring some on EV's in general. I know that I wouldn't buy a Tesla again. And, I could see having a second car as an ICE that we drive rarely. I commute 54 miles a week and I could take the EV 1/2 those days so we could get a second car down to 1500 miles/yr - optimistically. Not worth an EV. Could buy a 10 year old econobox for that. Was commuting much more when we got the second Tesla.
The bureau of transportation statistics has up to 2021 for sales figures:
Hybrid-Electric, Plug-in Hybrid-Electric and Electric Vehicle Sales | Bureau of Transportation Statistics
KEY: R = revised; Z = a value of zero, or value too small to report.
www.bts.gov
The 2nd worksheet has the data.
HEV sales have responded to fuel price peaks, and each peak has been higher than the one before as hybrid options have increased.
This has been true even as plug-in sales have increased.
Here in Maine if you're buying your electricity from the utility, it's now cheaper to fuel an efficient hybrid than an equivalent EV, and EV owners aren't yet paying any road pricing fees. We have a heavy natural gas dependency and limited distribution infrastructure that increases winter prices.
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I just love most EV owners. Its their way or no way. Its there opinion or the wrong opinion. This is my definition of a snowflake.
Most US Dealers Don't Have Any EVs & Almost Half Refuse To Sell EVs: Report
A Sierra Club report looks at the EV shopping experience in the US, and it appears it's far from positive. However, at least there's some hope in the findings.
insideevs.com
To be fair, % of dealers isn't that helpful. When I bought my Leaf many years ago, only certain dealers were certified to sell them. These tended to be larger dealers in more urban areas. I would not be surprised if 50% of Nissan dealers do not carry Leafs even today. And they were the first.
I am pretty sure that Jeep/Dodge/Chrysler dealers don't have any EVs.
And I suspect that in much of the country, there are a lot of those dealers.
When the majority of EVs sold are from a company that doesn't have dealerships, it skews things a little bit. When dealerships have to pay $1m to get certified, many of them won't. Their model is dying so why invest in it.
I am pretty sure that Jeep/Dodge/Chrysler dealers don't have any EVs.
And I suspect that in much of the country, there are a lot of those dealers.
When the majority of EVs sold are from a company that doesn't have dealerships, it skews things a little bit. When dealerships have to pay $1m to get certified, many of them won't. Their model is dying so why invest in it.
While this poll is for the US, the reality is that the auto market is a global industry and requires economies of scale to compete ( outside of small insignificant nitch players). China and EU are well on their way along the S adoption curve and when EV ‘s are cheaper to buy than ICE, the US will follow. However, it definitively will take longer for trucks that tow long distance at highway speeds but a lot of battery research is now happening all around the world so that nut may be cracked also.
I was about to like your post, but I partly disagree.
The US light auto market is at least 10ish to 17 million new vehicles per year.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/12/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
"Only 13.7 million vehicles were sold in 2022, a drop of 8% from 2021 and the lowest total since 2011, according to research firm Wards Intelligence.
To put that into historical perspective, auto sales topped 17 million each year between 2015 and 2019, before Covid."
NADA Issues Analysis of 2022 Auto Sales and 2023 Sales Forecast also mentions 13.7 and says "Franchised new-car dealerships captured 35.2% of the total new vehicle BEV market with continued BEV sales growth in 2023 as new models from legacy automakers hit showrooms and more BEV inventory is available."
So, when you have the overwhelming majority of new consumer automobiles sold in the US via franchise dealers ("thanks" to state franchise laws), you're really going to need more of them onboard to push the numbers past 50%, hence (part of) why I still stand by my vote of after 2040.
Yeah, AFAIK, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, Fiat, Ram (all part of Stellantis) haven't had any BEVs for sale in the US for years. The only one was the gen 1 compliance car Fiat 500e. Once it was discontinued, they didn't bring gen 2 to the US. Stellantis itself sells plenty of BEVs in Europe....
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Never heard of Stellantis but knew that group didn't have any EVs.
Note - they have 16% of US car dealerships. Just this one backward looking company ensures that only 84% of dealerships could have an EV if they wanted.
I still don't know. 1000 dealerships (6% of total) can sell 5 million cars easy which with declining sales could be 50%.
Telsa apparently sold 500k cars from 160 stores. I suspect that can double pretty easily - 2025 - with maybe a modest 20% increase in store count. So 1M cars from 200 stores. Fits with 1000 dealerships selling 5M cars.
There is a ton of dead weight to go away - like 10,000 dealerships. So maybe we shouldn't expect 50% of current dealerships to ever sell EVs?
We have 1 Tesla store in my metro and 4? BMW dealerships. Necessary because of silly things like oil changes. Not needed with EVs (obviously). I am 95% sure that Tesla sells more cars in my area than BMW does. But there are more legacy BMW's that need service. For now....
Note - they have 16% of US car dealerships. Just this one backward looking company ensures that only 84% of dealerships could have an EV if they wanted.
I still don't know. 1000 dealerships (6% of total) can sell 5 million cars easy which with declining sales could be 50%.
Telsa apparently sold 500k cars from 160 stores. I suspect that can double pretty easily - 2025 - with maybe a modest 20% increase in store count. So 1M cars from 200 stores. Fits with 1000 dealerships selling 5M cars.
There is a ton of dead weight to go away - like 10,000 dealerships. So maybe we shouldn't expect 50% of current dealerships to ever sell EVs?
We have 1 Tesla store in my metro and 4? BMW dealerships. Necessary because of silly things like oil changes. Not needed with EVs (obviously). I am 95% sure that Tesla sells more cars in my area than BMW does. But there are more legacy BMW's that need service. For now....
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