Porsche Mission E

[Karma]

If there was a car company that could do it, I would bet on Porsche. They have history with KERS type systems in their race cars and a dedicated core group of engineers that MIGHT be able to switch from ICE to BeV thinking.

Fingers crossed. I'd like to see someone else get in the game.

I think this was part of EM's initial long range plan: someone had to build it first, start getting market share, and force the ICE-makers to shift their business plans. Agree that Porsche just might be the natural extension and the next real automaker to enter the BEV game. Competition, like a rising tide, lifts all boats (or BEV's, in this case).

I really think that 10-15 years from now, at least 10% of the cars sold in the US will be BEV. It's coming...

 

[MartinAustin]

The most direct Tesla competitor would be the Performance version of the 2018 Model 3 liftback sedan.

Honestly, the Tesla product line will be totally different when the Porsche is coming out. For this reason, the published specs of the Porsche will probably have changed by then, and whatever they have in the back of their minds for the other specs will have changed to keep track with the moving BEV landscape.

By 2019 we will have:

• Potentially, Roadster 4.0. My guess is it will be a new 2-seat platform, and fairly expensive, as the cost required to develop a new platform is high, and 2-seat cars don't sell that many. Not only will it have better acceleration and grip than the current Roadster - which is an "experimental car" in some ways - but IMO it will last around a track without overheating. I don't think the Gen#3 battery form factor will be used, as it will make the wheelbase too long.
• Potentially, a reshaped Model S which will be 7 years old by then. Will this still use the Gen2 battery form factor? IMO probably.
• Potentially, Gigafactory #2 has been announced and is in some state of construction. Everyone will know what "50GWh/year" means and if you don't have it, you can't produce meaningful BEVs.
• Potentially, Tesla Motors Assembly Plant #2 will be announced and in some state of construction. (my guess... China or Eastern Europe)
• Model X will have been out for 4 years by 2019!!! It will be the performance SUV standard to beat. Cayenne will have been massacred.
• Gen#2 battery form factor will continue its 7% capacity increase without mass increase per year, or, at least, 5kWh per year. This points to at least a 110kWh battery and Model S NEDC range of 400 miles/640km, or 350 NEDC miles for the Model X.
• Gen #3 battery form factor will have at least two Model 3 vehicles... sedan and CUV. The CUV will be decimating Porsche Macan, Audi Q5, Jaguar F-Pace etc. The Model 3 will be in its 2nd year and have enjoyed cult status as the most pre-ordered car of all time, etc., etc..
• Gigafactory #1 in Nevada will have been operational for a while, and continuing its ramp-up to full capacity. Tour groups will have been going through for a long while and everyone will realise what an effort it is to properly get into the BEV business, and that Tesla is the world's #1 company at this. Tesla cars will be the most American-built of any American brand, since as we know The Other Three make everything from engines to whole vehicles in Mexico, though their marketing campaigns would have you believe they're all-American traditions.
• Tesla installed 7 Superchargers in 2012, 57 in 2013, 268 in 2014, and 176 so far in 2015. Assuming 200 per year in '16, '17 and '18, and by the onset of 2019 there could be nearly 1200 locations around the world that provide FREE electricity for any brand that wants to use the standard. If Porsche decides to license Tesla's 400V standard, that would make a lot of sense. They could implement their own 800V thing if they want. If Porsche do nothing except rely on public standards, their charging proposition could look pretty grim. You need a really big battery to use fast charging, and no-one else has a large battery, so no-one else is currently working to install those chargers.

• On the home charging front, Tesla will have the "snake thing" on sale.

To restate my point, the Tesla automotive landscape will be totally different in 2019 than it is today. Thus, when us forum folks, the media, and the general public compare this concept car, which I'm betting has not yet moved under its own power, to the current Model S, we are not doing Tesla justice!!!

My guess M3 P90D will outperform Mission E and undercut the price as well with a far superior Fast Charging Network.

Totally. The Model S P90D outperforms it right now, in 2015, and will undercut it on price as well.

I think that by 2019 the "German cars are better" image, that we have lived with for decades, could be in a lot of trouble in many countries, especially in the USA where "Buy American" carries a lot of clout.

I think the Roadster 3.0 will be built on the M3 platform and may be available as a 4 seater.

You mean the Roadster 4.0. And that is a totally different and probably enjoyable conversation, probably best thrashed out over on the Model 3 forum

 

[RobStark]

I think the Roadster 3.0 will be built on the M3 platform and may be available as a 4 seater.

Then it would be a Model 3 Convertible not a Roadster.


Elon has said there is something that will compete with Supercars but not Hypercars. A Tesla Roadster in $130k-$300k price range that takes on all comers in this price range. But not meant to compete with Bugatti,Koenigsegg, McLaren P1 nor Ferrari LaFerrari

 

[SR22pilot]

I thought by now I would see someone else with more input on the 800V battery issue. First, the assumption seems to be that the current Supercharger is as fast as the present Tesla battery packs can take. Do we know that? I know at one point Tesla went to a new Supercharger design that delivers more current. Thus the original design wasn't providing max charging current. For a given max cell charging current, 800V would have twice as many cells in series as 400V so it would charge twice as fast for a given charger current. The equivalent number of cells in a 400V configuration would have twice the number of parallel paths and hence require 2X the current from the charger.

If cells are at max charging current then would smaller cells take the same max charging current but with a smaller capacity? That I don't know. If so then you could use physically smaller cells. I would suspect that max charging current is not some fixed number but that it varies by cell construction.

 

[woof]

Porsche chief Matthias Mueller quotes:

May 7, 2015:
“I cannot say anything about Tesla,” he said. “I don’t know anything about Tesla .”

Sept 11, 2015:
“Tesla has built an exceptional car,” Porsche chief Matthias Mueller said Friday at the brand’s annual press conference in Stuttgart, Germany. “They have a very pragmatic approach and set the standard, where we have to follow up now.”

 

[brucet999]

Love the look, but without a supercharger network ???

Lots of people bought Model S in 2012 without any mention of superchargers. The cars were set up for supercharging, but Tesla did not announce it for quite some time after MS deliveries began.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Lots of people bought Model S in 2012 without any mention of superchargers. The cars were set up for supercharging, but Tesla did not announce it for quite some time after MS deliveries began.

I wouldn't go that far. They sold what.. 2000 cars in 2012?

 

[mspohr]

Lots of people bought Model S in 2012 without any mention of superchargers. The cars were set up for supercharging, but Tesla did not announce it for quite some time after MS deliveries began.

But in 2020 when Porsche is selling its E car and you have a choice of a nationwide supercharger network or ?nothing, what will you choose?

 

[wallet.dat]

Holy moley that thing is sexy! They'll knock it out the park if they stick with that design and don't change a thing (well, except for the the oversize wheels maybe). And I've always looked forward to the day when Porsche starts adopting electric power. I mean look at what they're doing with obsolete dino powered engines: 0-60 in 2.5, 1/4 mile in 10.6 @ 130mph. Once they start putting electric motors into the mix, it's going to be nuts!

 

[Ed Hart]

brucet999 - After reading your comments, I looked at the Tesla Supercharger map as an example of how many charging stations might be needed to do long distance driving in a Mission E, assuming dealerships - always in cities - would have the chargers. It sure looks like there are a hundred or more chargers needed in areas where no one would ever located a dealership. That said, there is no reason why huge VW could not build a MUCH larger charging network than little Tesla could ever muster. All VW has to do is BELIEVE!

 

[brucet999]

brucet999 - After reading your comments, I looked at the Tesla Supercharger map as an example of how many charging stations might be needed to do long distance driving in a Mission E, assuming dealerships - always in cities - would have the chargers. It sure looks like there are a hundred or more chargers needed in areas where no one would ever located a dealership. That said, there is no reason why huge VW could not build a MUCH larger charging network than little Tesla could ever muster. All VW has to do is BELIEVE!

Of course they would have to fill gaps, but my point was that they already have hundreds of locations under their control (or strong influence, at least), so the task would be much easier than it has been for Tesla.

 

[James Anders]

Until Porsche or Audi or whomever announces an equivalent solution to the Supercharger infrastructure none of these car concepts are "Tesla Killers".

 

[dauger]

Of course they would have to fill gaps, but my point was that they already have hundreds of locations under their control (or strong influence, at least), so the task would be much easier than it has been for Tesla.

Porsche has yet to decide to add 800V chargers between their dealers, so that's vaporware, but before that:

Porsche has yet to decide to install 800V chargers at their dealers, so that's vaporware, but before that:

Porsche has yet to decide how many and at what price to sell a "Mission E", so that's vaporware, but before that:

Porsche has yet to decide to make a production "Mission E", so that's vaporware.

That's four layers of vaporware before that vision of Porsche tech becomes real several years from now. While Porsche waffles, Tesla is doing it for real, today, and presses forward. On the Commitment spectrum, they're opposites, hence Porsche's leadership role in this space is, likewise, vaporware.

 

[rolosrevenge]

I really doubt any of these cars could ever be a "Tesla Killer" because they will probably end up taking more sales from ICE models than Teslas. The more EVs, the more convenient EV life becomes, the more people will buy them. So bring it out Porsche, you're not competing against Tesla, you're competing against everyone who doesn't have a compelling EV.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Until Porsche or Audi or whomever announces an equivalent solution to the Supercharger infrastructure none of these car concepts are "Tesla Killers".

+ 1

 

[voyager]

Porsche Mission E concept revealed at Frankfurt IAA 2015 - YouTube

 

[ThosEM]

Porsche claims that the Mission E will be trackable without power limiting, unlike the current Model S. Permanent magnet motors and 800 V battery configuration are probably a big part of that capability and very shrewd moves that are consistent with the Porsche image as a racetrack capable car, assuming there aren't other intrinsic problems. But it does perhaps make it more difficult for Porsche to buy into the Tesla supercharger network. It will be very interesting to see how this shakes out, IF they actually go forward with the plan. I'm not in the market for one of these (unless a) they make a cabriolet and b) I win the lottery), but it sure is sexy and fun to dream about!

 

[mspohr]

Of course they would have to fill gaps, but my point was that they already have hundreds of locations under their control (or strong influence, at least), so the task would be much easier than it has been for Tesla.

But not many of those locations are close to freeways or in rural areas where they are needed.

 

[jgs]

All VW has to do is BELIEVE!

No, that's the first thing they have to do. Then they have to invest and execute.

But I think you're right that believing is the most difficult hurdle. As Matthew 19:24 tells us, "again I tell you, it is easier for a Porsche to go through the eye of a needle than for an established ICE manufacturer to fully commit to a complete EV ecosystem."

- - - Updated - - -

Of course they would have to fill gaps, but my point was that they already have hundreds of locations under their control (or strong influence, at least), so the task would be much easier than it has been for Tesla.

Are you sure about that? All Tesla has to do is spend money. Well that and negotiate for real estate, but the nature of the negotiation is win-win and it's probably not all that hard to close the sale. VW, on the other hand, has to negotiate with a separate, independent dealer for every location where they want to light up a charging station. And the likelihood of the dealer perceiving the negotiation as a win-win is considerably lower. Furthermore, unlike Tesla, VW doesn't have the option to just go across the street or across town to the competition, at least not if they want to take advantage of their supposed dealership "advantage".

It's intuitively obvious that having dealerships is an advantage for lighting up a charging network. But I'm not sure it's true.

- - - Updated - - -

Porsche claims that the Mission E will be trackable without power limiting, unlike the current Model S.

And that's cool, but it doesn't make a Tesla killer. It may well be sufficient to protect Porsche from (further?) market share erosion, because I suppose many Porsche owners do care about having the car be trackable, whether or not the owner ever actually takes the car to a track. But I very much doubt most Tesla owners, or prospective owners, rank this as a must-have. I have no doubt whatsoever there are exceptions, but the "killer" hyperbole just doesn't pass the red-face test.

 

[dsm363]

I wouldn't go that far. They sold what.. 2000 cars in 2012?

They might have delivered that many but many thousands more had reservations that were made without knowledge of the Supercharger network.