Poll: 81% of Prospective Model 3 Owners Say They Won’t Pay Upfront For Full Self-Driving

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]It seems most prospective Model 3 owners aren’t willing to shell out cash upfront for a $3,000 “full self-driving capability” option that is likely years away from becoming available to engage.

In a poll posted by jsraw 81.3% (347) of respondents said they will not pay for the feature at purchase. Adding the option later will cost an additional $1,000. Of respondents, 18.7% said they will pay for FSD upfront.

According to Tesla’s website, FSD “doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.”

Elon Musk has said that level 5 autonomous driving is possible with second generation Autopilot and the FSD option, meaning the car is fully autonomous in any and all conditions. During his TED talk in April, Musk said the company plans to conduct by the end of 2017 a coast-to-coast demo drive from California to New York without the driver touching the wheel.

Obviously, there will be regulatory hurdles ahead and Musk has said it will likely be two years before owners will be able to engage FSD capability.

See a few comments on the poll below, or go to the thread here.

Swift

EinSV

jason1466

Waiting4M3

Enginerd[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

 

[Rogue one]

I know a number of people who bought/leased their AP2 cars in 2016 based on the EAP/FSD statements on the website at that time (Tesla has modified the language since), the FSD video on the website, and Elon's statement that Tesla would be capable of FSD from coast to coast by the end of 2017.

These people spent a lot of money not only on those options, but on the base car required to get to those capabilities. If they had known that FSD was not likely achievable anytime in the next who knows how many years, they probably wouldn't have bought the car let alone the options.

The out that Tesla has here is regulatory approval. But you have to submit something for regulatory approval to play that card.

Yeah the people who chose to lease are in a hard place with the software unlock pricing... if they buy it when they buy the car they pay every month on a feature they don't have and may never have before their lease is up.. if they wait then what do they buy FSD one year before the lease is up? Do they wait to unlock it in their next car? Personally I would only consider FSD upgrade on my model 3 if I planned to keep it 8+ years, even then I don't know....

 

[Swift]

There's a large difference between what a consumer might view as capable (to the customer) vs a manufacturer's demo.

As far as the demo:


From that alone customers should gather that FSD will not be available anytime in 2016, 2017, and may or may not be available early 2018 since the manufacturers demo is optimistically at the end of 2017. Anything enabled for consumers would be after this time.

Personally, I plan to get the performance Model 3. The timeline for this vehicle means I can actually choose FSD after seeing that demo. In addition, since it's so much later than even the RWD Model 3, if there are additional hardware improvements, hopefully I'll get those as well.

Taken together, the 2016 website statements, the FSD video, and Elon's 2016 statements, it is completely understandable that a consumer would have an expectation to see that functionality within a reasonable amount of time, and for a reasonable portion of scope of their lease or expected life of the vehicle.

I'm certain consumer protection agencies and attorneys will see it along those lines. It's a ticking time bomb for Tesla.

 

[JeffK]

Taken together, the 2016 website statements, the FSD video, and Elon's 2016 statements, it is completely understandable that a consumer would have an expectation to see that functionality within a reasonable amount of time, and for a reasonable portion of scope of their lease or expected life of the vehicle.

I'm certain consumer protection agencies and attorneys will see it along those lines. It's a ticking time bomb for Tesla.

The minimum goal dates for demos are in black and white... it's not open to interpretation and it was never given as a guarantee by that date. In addition, the way it's worded when you purchase the feature, it's highly dependent on third parties even after the software is complete (or rather in a minimum safe working state since there's no such thing as "complete").

 

[DriveMe]

Like many others:
EAP - Yes! I am impressed with what it can do now, and can only dream about what it will be capable of next year!
FSD - No! I am not willing to pay in advance for something that may or may not happen who knows when. I do believe that FSD will be technically possible very soon and perhaps even with the AP2 hardware. However, I am very skeptical about the legislation allowing it in the near future. If it does happen in the next couple of years, I will happily pay the premium upgrade cost at that time!

 

[jsrawa]

I like the recent story I read about how the computer can (and will) be upgraded as needed in Hardware 2 AP vehicles for FSD (per Elon Musk). As for FSD definition: PRSIST - did you read the very first post? Full Self Drive... just author's shorthand for this post.

Yes, but at what cost? Will the cost be lower if I already purchased FSD?

It's great that it can be upgraded easily and quickly through the glovebox according to Elon but I think they have a liability/logistics nightmare on their hands in the future if a hardware upgrade is required.

 

[JeffK]

Yes, but at what cost? Will the cost be lower if I already purchased FSD?

It's great that it can be upgraded easily and quickly through the glovebox according to Elon but I think they have a liability/logistics nightmare on their hands in the future if a hardware upgrade is required.

Not really. You'd only really have to upgrade those early models with owners that already purchased FSD package which is probably only a subset. Cost would be free to owners.

 

[jsrawa]

Not really. You'd only really have to upgrade those early models with owners that already purchased FSD package which is probably only a subset. Cost would be free to owners.

I suppose you're correct, according to this poll it would indeed be a small subset. That being said I think they have promised a lot with AP2 hardware. If you take a look over at the S section of the forum you will see an thread of aggravated S owners who purchased FSD. They may already be behind in hardware if the 3 is truely 2.5.

 

[JeffK]

I suppose you're correct, according to this poll it would indeed be a small subset. That being said I think they have promised a lot with AP2 hardware. If you take a look over at the S section of the forum you will see an thread of aggravated S owners who purchased FSD.

Not all consumers are created equal in their ability for rational thought and analytical thinking skills. If they are angry, they have no right to be. Plus, because of the price they paid, they get a free hardware upgrade, if needed.

I can understand the frustration with the delay of EAP features, but not FSD.

 

[insaneoctane]

FSD isn't worth ANYTHING today. Yes, it's a promise of something to come. Eventually. I can't pay $3K on top of what is the longest automotive stretch I've ever decided to make. I am getting EAP, because I'm willing to gamble that it will immediately be worth something to me and I'm hoping it gets even better in the future. I may find out that EAP isn't worth $5K, but I'm taking that chance from what I've read. Educated guess. FSD just is vaporware at this time. Tesla is a VERY ambitious company and has been known to get ahead of themselves time to time. While I think they are leaders in the FSD field, until their released software catches up to their lip service, take advantage of the fact that you don't HAVE to choose it now, but can later. That's great, because this poll would be a little different if everyone didn't have the luxury of deciding later! I agree with the previous poster that said take the $3K that you would buy FSD with and instead buy TSLA with that money and its seems fairly likely that you'll be able to pay for FSD once its shows up AND is worth it.

 

[Swift]

The minimum goal dates for demos are in black and white... it's not open to interpretation and it was never given as a guarantee by that date. In addition, the way it's worded when you purchase the feature, it's highly dependent on third parties even after the software is complete (or rather in a minimum safe working state since there's no such thing as "complete").

You need to do some research. There's already litigation in progress. EAP was to be delivered by December 2016 and it still isn't complete. For FSD, they would have needed some reasonable expectation to deliver it during the life of the lease/purchase before taking people's money. As for dependencies on third-parties (regulators), you have to give them something to review before you can blame them for a delay. I don't see Tesla doing that anytime soon.

 

[JeffK]

You need to do some research. There's already litigation in progress. EAP was to be delivered by December 2016 and it still isn't complete. For FSD, they would have needed some reasonable expectation to deliver it during the life of the lease/purchase before taking people's money. As for dependencies on third-parties (regulators), you have to give them something to review before you can blame them for a delay. I don't see Tesla doing that anytime soon.

No need for research, I follow Tesla pretty closely

Here's Tesla's statement on the matter:

This lawsuit is a disingenuous attempt to secure attorney’s fees posing as a legitimate legal action, which is evidenced by the fact that the suit misrepresents many facts. Many of the features this suit claims are “unavailable” are in fact available, with more updates coming every month. We have always been transparent about the fact that Enhanced Autopilot software is a product that would roll out incrementally over time, and that features would continue to be introduced as validation is completed, subject to regulatory approval. Furthermore, we have never claimed our vehicles already have functional “full self-driving capability”, as our website has stated in plain English for all potential customers that “it is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval.” The inaccurate and sensationalistic view of our technology put forth by this group is exactly the kind of misinformation that threatens to harm consumer safety.

You can read the complaint if you like. It's totally bogus and full of outright falsehoods.

 

[Swift]

No need for research, I follow Tesla pretty closely. Here's Tesla's statement on the matter

Yeah. Almost seems like you work for them. Now you should research what customers are saying.

You can read the complaint if you like. It's totally bogus and full of outright falsehoods.

Read that one. More lawsuits coming.

 

[JeffK]

Yeah. Almost seems like you work for them. Now you should research what customers are saying.
Read that one. More lawsuits coming.

Customers are saying that it works great when used properly.

I highly doubt there'd be more lawsuits regarding EAP not providing EAP features.

 

[Swift]

Customers are saying that it works great when used properly.

Do you have EAP? Have you driven with it?

I highly doubt there'd be more lawsuits regarding EAP not providing EAP features.

There will most certainly be more litigation regarding EAP and FSD.

 

[JeffK]

Do you have EAP? Have you driven with it?

There will most certainly be more litigation regarding EAP and FSD.

What I have or don't have is irrelevant to my comment about customers.

This is a great article that sums up my thoughts:
When Stanford Roboticists Review Tesla Autopilot, They Don't Send Their Best

 

[kaffine]

I will order both EAP and FSD with the car. I could see if hardware upgrades are needed that the price you pay to upgrade later is significantly more than the $1k shown now for the S/X. I plan on keeping the car long term. I'm not sure if they will achieve complete FSD with current generation hardware or that they will provide an upgrade path other than buying an entirely new car. However I am hopeful that they will start to activate new features beyond EAP. It is a risk. I don't see getting refunded the money if they ultimately can't get it working I will have just given them $3k. To me it is worth it to help fund the R&D.

 

[Swift]

What I have or don't have is irrelevant to my comment about customers.

Got it. So you don't have EAP or FSD. Now your comments make more sense.

 

[smak]

I'm not going to order it until it's done.

I feel Full Self Driving, that works 100% of the time, with all the various laws already decided is a $20k feature that I can get for $4k.

-smak-

 

[insaneoctane]

I'm not going to order it until it's done.

I feel Full Self Driving, that works 100% of the time, with all the various laws already decided is a $20k feature that I can get for $4k.

-smak-

Isn't there a chance that if becomes a "$20K feature" that Tesla may increase the cost to add it on after the fact?

 

[EdFerg]

I am ordering EAP, but not FSD. I'll pay when it's available and proven. But my guess is I'll be on my next car after the Model 3 before FSD and the laws are ready for prime time. I also hesitate because I'm not betting that the existing hardware is up to the task. Just a general observation that software evolution tends to make hardware become obsolete quickly.