The BMS has a predetermined trigger voltage where it will enter bricking protection. It's not a guess, prediction, or estimate. It is an absolute certainty. Absolutely no error in the calculation should be tolerated at this point. Tesla needs to fix this... If it's still showing range, then that is indicating to the driver it is NOT at the trigger voltage. IMO, this is simply unacceptable.
Let's be honest; predicting the lowest cell is a bit artwork.
Yes, the BMS will open the main traction battery contactor at 2.5 volts on the lowest cell. Because the packs are always top balanced, and never bottom balanced, there could very well be significantly uneven bottom cell voltages, where XX miles could still be displayed as the calculated energy remaining, while having no programming to ANTICIPATE that one parallel cell string will screw up that calculation.
That's the special sauce that Tesla (and all of them, frankly) is missing. I honestly do not know how to predict that, but I'd suggest that:
1) as the cell voltage reaches 2.9 volts, the range algorithm begins to shift heavily to diverging cell voltages (very difficult under load). Basically, if the cell strings are within 0.050 volts for most of the discharge, at some point that voltage gap will get larger, and larger. That's the spread that I'm talking about.
2) for the driver, very, very light use of the go-fast peddle is required to not allow a voltage sag under load to trigger the 2.5v threshold
For this car, I would fully charge the car, and let it sit at 100% for 12-24 hours. Then, I would drive it once again to ZERO miles to repeat the event (closer to home!). While top balancing will not fix a situation where the lowest voltage stops the car prematurely, at least you'll have some ammo for the Tesla guys.
Have them get you a report of the variation between cell string voltages when the car stops. I'll bet that any situation where there is ample potential power available (showing significant rated range) and the car stopping will be shown to be a low voltage situation.
Of course, there is no fix, short of replacing that cell string (which Tesla isn't going to do).