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Nuclear power

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Crazy question.
Is there any possibility to convert these decommissioned reactors to Thorium MSR ?
Seems the existing reactors have the containment that would provide a much higher level of comfort than is ever required by MSR and perhaps save significant capital construction costs.
 
The majority of these decommissioned reactors had been on extended duty, with a variety of safety issues they needed to address to be extended further.
If you can't build new for competitive price, highly doubt an old decommissioned site with 30 year old pipes and control systems to overhaul be cheaper.
 
Crazy question.
Is there any possibility to convert these decommissioned reactors to Thorium MSR ?
Seems the existing reactors have the containment that would provide a much higher level of comfort than is ever required by MSR and perhaps save significant capital construction costs.

Not really. The basic site could be re-used, but current radiation standards make it almost impossible to remove a decommissioned reactor (even after years to cool down and reduce radioactivity).
It's a result of the LNT radiation model.
Its assumed that any radiation coming from the reactor is bad, no matter how small.
It would however be very possible to build new reactor types as an expansion to the site, leaving the decommissioned reactors going through their slow and very expensive retirement process.

I would add however that there is interesting evidence to disprove LNT:
1 - Calculations using LNT and Chernobyl predicted 2 million deaths at some point. To date actual radiation sickness / aggressive cancers deaths add up to less than 100, you can consider 1000 deaths (rounding up) if you include all cases of suicide by Vodka (if you think you're going to die a horrible death long term, for some dying sooner from Alcohol better). Long term studies passing peer review expect 10000 total premature deaths (mostly cancers). How come the 10k to 2M disparity (factor of 200) ? Precisely the fact that LNT is wrong and that rather hormesis instead should be used.

2 - Real world exposure to high radiation levels, specially situations where people have moderate ingestion of radionuclides. For instance radioactive hot springs / monazite sand beaches involve low radiation levels VS cancer thresholds but up to 100x normal sea level background levels. Yet the data shows normal cancer levels, even slightly lower cancer levels than normal in many cases.

3 - Disparities in background radiation levels not correlating with LNT. Lowest background radiation levels is 0.2 uSv/hr (NYC, LA, London). Levels in Denver/SLC altitude cities is at least 3x higher. Levels at 12000ft (4Km) altitude is around 5x higher. If LNT were true, Cancer levels would HAVE to be higher. It's actually lower, perhaps lower due to less air pollution, but still lower. Flying on a typical modern jet cruising altitude (35000ft and higher) involves radiation doses around 20x higher. If LNT were even remotely correct, Cancers incidence among pilots/cabin crew would have to be substantial. It isn't. Final example, the ISS (Intl Space Station), radiation levels 100x higher than background at sea level, 6 month missions. We're talking about a single mission resulting in exposure to radiation = 50 years at background sea level.

That's the core single BIG nuclear problem, LNT. If the whole model were recalculated using even a threshold model using 100x background levels as the threshold where more radiation begins to cause more cancers, then the costs to build/decommission a reactor would drop massively. Current radiation HOT areas around Fukushima are far below ISS levels (and concentrated on fairly small areas), so EVAC could have been optional with a mandatory area of two 1 mile radius circles (the hotspots) vs a 20 mile radius at peak.

The fact is big govt agencies have no incentive to seek lower costs or to minimize inconvenience to humans. Consider how many times Tsunami alerts in Hawaii were issued for tsunamis originated 3000 miles away, with waves hitting at tiny levels. If there's another tsunami tomorrow at the same levels that we know is going to be a non event, every precaution will be taken anyway, that has a financial cost. The US NRC is that times 100.

It has been demonstrated that the human tool of forced evac in Fukushima was much higher than if no evac at all was taken. Hundreds died (mostly the elderly), as people with advanced age can get depression from being home sick. EVAC radius was taken to avoid ANY elevations in cancer cases, without any acceptable cancer case as a parameter.

Its unacceptable that the US NRC has in its core a severe case of radiophobia.

We live in a radioactive world. We are continuously exposed to alpha, beta and gamma particles. Beta and gammas are even created by our own bodies. Comic rays and solar radiation is also ionizing. Radon decay produces alphas, and as Radon is a heavy noble gas, we inhale it all the time. (Radon is a by product of Uranium and Thorium decay, the earth's core is a massive nuclear decay rector - not fission).
Those that seek to inflict radiophobia on the general population willingly ignore the fact that we live in a radioactive world.
I sun bathed for years on monazite sands resulting in exposures unacceptable even to a paid nuclear worker. The doses received in Guarapari for a typical 2 month summertime every day at the beach for 3 hours = many times yearly maximum exposure permitted for radiation workers except in emergencies. Guarapari is a tourist hot spot, with many millions of yearly visitors (with the many monazite beaches being the main attraction). Studies have been made, local cancer levels are in line with nationwide averages. People grab the sand and bring it home, cover their skin with the sand as treatment for chronic arthritis and other circulatory ailments.

That's why I have no faith in GreenPeace and other anti nuclear organizations. They are demonstrably biased. They have a vested interest in doing their anti nuclear routine. GreenPeace is a half a billion USD / year organization. They have no interest with science. When was the last time GreenPeace apologized for being wrong on anything (nuclear or not) ?
 
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Big government is the only reason nukes got built and stay open.
Blaming government doesn't make it a cheaper or more flexible power source.
All your reasoned points mean nothing if you fail to realize that.
The best nuclear reactor is beaming massive amounts of power directly to our planet for 6 hours a day. Once we solve the storage requirements, it's going to be the dominant form of power production.
 
Big government is the only reason nukes got built and stay open.
Blaming government doesn't make it a cheaper or more flexible power source.
All your reasoned points mean nothing if you fail to realize that.
The best nuclear reactor is beaming massive amounts of power directly to our planet for 6 hours a day. Once we solve the storage requirements, it's going to be the dominant form of power production.

Storage needs to loose an entire ZERO to start being used in mass scale.
Tesla PowerPack US$ 250/kWh = 6.9 cents / kWh assuming 10 years with full daily cycling.
That's twice the price of current existing nuclear.
Even @ US$ 25/kWh or 0.69 cents / kWh its barely economical.
How much is your solar production costs ?

Its true current nuclear was designed for US Navy sub needs. It wasn't what the Manhattan project scientists wanted nuclear to be. But its still a much better alternative to fossil fuels and far cheaper than solar/wind.

One final thought. Lets get rid of each and every energy related subsidy. And add a good carbon tax.
Which energy source would rule this scenario ????
That's right, NUCLEAR. Doesn't burn stuff.

The problem with nuclear isn't that government wants it to continue. Its the opposite. The NRC has been very diligent to make nuclear as expensive as possible. The DOE is far more interested in nuclear proliferation issues than helping reduce the cost of nuclear.

The simple reason is the real money in nuclear is on the operators that own the reactors. Those are companies that also own coal/natural/wind facilities. They don't care about climate change. They care about profits. And since natural gas is cheap, that's what they're doing. Their army in congress is focused on keeping gas cheap.

As the people that are really studying climate change actually did the math in how to avoid it in time, they say we need lots of nuclear power. As much nuclear as we can build.
Meanwhile you let your reactors get shutdown in a web of anti nuclear propaganda.

My Brazil has 2 operational, one under construction. We have a lot of big hydro. Our largest dam just went into throw overboard mode (too much rain, already running in full baseload mode, Itaipu, 18000MW of generating capacity).
China has 60 under construction.
India has 6 under construction.
South Korea has 4 under construction.

Realize that just the new nuclear and hydro capacity coming online every year generates as much new electricity per year than all solar worldwide combined a few times over.
 
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Storage needs to loose an entire ZERO to start being used in mass scale.
Tesla PowerPack US$ 250/kWh = 6.9 cents / kWh assuming 10 years with full daily cycling.
That's twice the price of current existing nuclear.
Even @ US$ 25/kWh or 0.69 cents / kWh its barely economical.
How much is your solar production costs ?

I don't think you're looking at this right. To be adopted on a large scale, grid storage doesn't have to be cheaper than nuclear - it has to be cheaper than the most expensive power the utility has - presumably the natural gas turbine "peaking" plant that most utilities have. As long is it saves them money by reducing the peaking usage or reducing the spinning reserve they have to hold, it'll make financial sense, at least until it displaces the most expensive part. Then it'll have to compete with the next most expensive to keep getting added.

It seems like the estimate of storage cost will vary greatly based on how long it lasts - I don't know that anyone has a solid handle on how long lithium packs will last if kept at reasonable temperatures and not cycled to the limits. From recent results with cars I suspect it is a lot more than 10 years.
Walter
 
Realize that just the new nuclear and hydro capacity coming online every year generates as much new electricity per year than all solar worldwide combined a few times over.


Hmmm... we've beaten the storage thing to death... just flip back a few pages.

Here's a quick fact check....

Annual Global installs

- 57GW of Solar generating ~83TWh/yr @ CF of ~17%
- 4GW of Nuclear Generation was added Aug '14 - '15 generating ~35TWh/yr @ CF of ~90%
- 37GW of hydro generating ~117TWh/yr

Globally there is >180GW of installed solar generating >260TWh/yr

So sorry... but no... solar has a bit more bite and next year its growth should surpass the growth of hydro and nuclear.


Its unacceptable that the US NRC has in its core a severe case of radiophobia.

We live in a radioactive world. We are continuously exposed to alpha, beta and gamma particles. Beta and gammas are even created by our own bodies. Comic rays and solar radiation is also ionizing. Radon decay produces alphas, and as Radon is a heavy noble gas, we inhale it all the time. (Radon is a by product of Uranium and Thorium decay, the earth's core is a massive nuclear decay rector - not fission).

OK... let's talk radiation and contamination... something the general public has a difficult time with for some reason.

In a nuclear accident the main concern is radio-active contamination... not really the radiation... which is why Fukushima workers look like this;

fukushima_.jpg


A tyvek suit doesn't offer anymore protection against radiation than a birthday suit... it DOES provide protection against contamination. Of all the types of radiation only neutrons and gammas can penetrate your skin and clothing. Gammas don't do nearly as much damage as their ionized cousins Betas (an electron) and alphas (Helium atom stripped of electrons) Fortunately β and α can't hurt you.... unless you ingest or inhale their parent nuclides. Which is why Radon (an α emitter) is a far greater threat than other sources of radiation.

A whole stew of β and α emitters are released when a radiated fuel rod is breached. Some of these are not only easily ingested but are also chemically identical to non radioactive isotopes living things actively absorb such as iodine.

Yes... you're naturally exposed to ~500mRem/yr... but that's not really the concern in a nuclear accident... it's the actual sources of radiation ending up in your body. The 3 defenses agains radiation are Time, Distance and Shielding... kinda irrelevant when your thyroid is the source :(
 
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...".............
That's why I have no faith in GreenPeace and other anti nuclear organizations. They are demonstrably biased. They have a vested interest in doing their anti nuclear routine. GreenPeace is a half a billion USD / year organization. They have no interest with science. When was the last time GreenPeace apologized for being wrong on anything (nuclear or not) ?

Without getting into the CO2 debate, here is an interesting reference to Greenpeace founder Patrick Moore and why he left

Greenpeace founder delivers powerful annual lecture, praises carbon dioxide full text | Watts Up With That?
 
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Storage needs to loose an entire ZERO to start being used in mass scale.
Tesla PowerPack US$ 250/kWh = 6.9 cents / kWh assuming 10 years with full daily cycling.
That's twice the price of current existing nuclear.
Even @ US$ 25/kWh or 0.69 cents / kWh its barely economical.
How much is your solar production costs ?
The powerwall will likely last longer than 10 years. I mean, every single one might die before the warranty is up, but most manufacturers don't build/warranty products like that. IIRC, It's rated at 1500 cycles to 70% capacity, which is something like one full cycle per day for 13-14 years. Also, unless you only use electricity at night, you don't need to store every single kWh you use. A owner that goes with PV and storage would likely use some form of DSM to minimize storage requirements.
 
I will however clarify that MASS adoption means having at least 1% of worldwide electricitry flowing through charge/discharge cycles.
In reality even one ppm market share = billions / years in Tesla Energy sales. And that's a sure thing with just beating diesel electricity costs with solar+wind+tesla energy in islands and reducing demand charges.
Tesla Energy greatest advantage for Tesla is maximizing returns from the Giga Factory.
Even @ 100k cars / year and if they were all 90kWh packs = 9GWh / year in Li Ion demand.
The more Tesla can decouple Gigafactory supply with Model 3 demand the better. Don't want Gigafactory wasting Li Ion output.

Having another business that demands another 10GWh / year right from the get go is important too.

I want Tesla to succeed big time. However I decouple hoping with analysis.
 
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Crazy question.
Is there any possibility to convert these decommissioned reactors to Thorium MSR ?
Seems the existing reactors have the containment that would provide a much higher level of comfort than is ever required by MSR and perhaps save significant capital construction costs.
Have a look at the Lightbridge site. They've been working with Thorium combined with conventional uranium rods, perhaps even including plutonium. The idea is to make fuel rods that are safer (if I can use that word) and able to reduce plutonium to a safer (there's that word again) product.

The big deal about Lightbridge is that their proliferation-resistant design should fit right into most of the conventional reactors in use today.
 
Have a look at the Lightbridge site. They've been working with Thorium combined with conventional uranium rods, perhaps even including plutonium. The idea is to make fuel rods that are safer (if I can use that word) and able to reduce plutonium to a safer (there's that word again) product.

The big deal about Lightbridge is that their proliferation-resistant design should fit right into most of the conventional reactors in use today.

There's also Thor Energy in Norway doing a thorium+plutonium mix.
 
The powerwall will likely last longer than 10 years. I mean, every single one might die before the warranty is up, but most manufacturers don't build/warranty products like that. IIRC, It's rated at 1500 cycles to 70% capacity, which is something like one full cycle per day for 13-14 years. Also, unless you only use electricity at night, you don't need to store every single kWh you use. A owner that goes with PV and storage would likely use some form of DSM to minimize storage requirements.

Solar production is highly concentrated on the 10AM-3PM time range (with summer/winter distortions of course). So right at 9AM and 4PM of an average day you're likely to be consuming more than your producing already. Can you say that if you go 100% off grid/mostly off grid half of your generation will be instantly consumed without special efforts (doing laundry / pumping water / ... right at high solar production hours) ?

My point is energy storage effects on the grid without assuming everybody is a conservationist.

There's a lot of baseload electricity demand, large factories that run 24x7, 3 shifts.
Its not just about homes and businesses.
 
So nwdiver are you really expecting another Fukushima in the next 25 years ?
It was the strongest tsunami in recorded Japan history and the effects on the plant could have been prevented with a million dollar fix.
Now the NRC is mandating $75 million Fukushima fixes to reactors 4 hours drive away from the Ocean.
The nuclear accident trend is down.
The nuclear cost is a result of LNT, having to prevent accidents that can't happen at a particular reactor, but once the NRC prescribes a fix, it doesn't matter if the risk exists.
Thyroid cancer has 1% mortality risk. You're much better scaremongering people with other types of cancers.
Every single nuclear accident since TMI can be seen as a curse or a blessing.
Anytime deaths/cancers are predicted with radiation safety guidelines they overestimate by 2 orders of magnitude.
So far no Fukushima radiation deaths.

That Fukushima Thyroid cancer article isn't actual cancer cases, it's a pre cancerous formations which have very low risk of developing into a cancer. If you screen any average world population you will find lots of those.

Increased coal consumption by Japan during the prolonged reactor shutdown likely to have higher health impact than Fukushima nuclear accident.
 
There's a lot of baseload electricity demand, large factories that run 24x7, 3 shifts.
Its not just about homes and businesses.

That's when night-shift renewables take over...

ems_renewables.gif


And we've literally beat the storage thing to death... you might have missed it...

We've barely scratched the surface on storage methods....

Compressed Air Storage;
Pumped Storage;
Hydrogen Storage;
Aluminum Battery;
Gravity Storage;
Vanadium Flow;
Rail-Gravity Storage;

We won't need storage on the scale to carry the grid for a week for another ~15 years... predicting cost is about as productive as predicting todays solar cost 15 years ago... who thought solar would be ~$1.30/w today 15 years ago? No one. Many storage methods are incredibly simple... and very likely to be equally cheap.

First we won't need any generation for a few days.... then a week... then a few weeks.... then a month... in ~20 years we may only need generation a few weeks a year.... then a few days every couple years....

In terms of regulating nuclear power plants I guess we're just at a philosophical disagreement; IMO reducing regulations is as likely to save the industry as it is to kill it. It doesn't take a Tsunami to cause a melt-down... If there's an accident no one is going to stick around their homes to see of they're the 'lucky 1%'... tens of thousand will evacuate... even if no one dies, do you really think the US nuclear industry could survive a mass relocation like occurred in Japan?

Then it's questionable as to how cheap you could really get nuclear... how many safety features are 'unnecessary'; The regulations in China are about as lax as they get but even they're hedging their bets... installing ~5GW of solar for every GW of nuclear.
 
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That's when night-shift renewables take over...

View attachment 98453

And we've literally beat the storage thing to death... you might have missed it...



In terms of regulating nuclear power plants I guess we're just at a philosophical disagreement; IMO reducing regulations is as likely to save the industry as it is to kill it. It doesn't take a Tsunami to cause a melt-down... If there's an accident no one is going to stick around their homes to see of they're the 'lucky 1%'... tens of thousand will evacuate... even if no one dies, do you really think the US nuclear industry could survive a mass relocation like occurred in Japan?

Then it's questionable as to how cheap you could really get nuclear... how many safety features are 'unnecessary'; The regulations in China are about as lax as they get but even they're hedging their bets... installing ~5GW of solar for every GW of nuclear.

Near miss you say ? Do you know what an aviation near miss is ?
Those incidents are akin to calling when an airliner looses one out of two engines and safety lands at an airport (happens every year or so nowadays).
A near miss is passing within a fraction of a mile of another airliner.

So yeah, I continue calling your speech scaremongering.

For me a near miss would be actually loosing coolant water and managing to fight the loss with emergency systems avoiding reactor damage.

If you are a trained nuclear professional you know the difference.

And arguably you could reduce the cost of regulatory compliance from the serious operators while maintaining punishment teeth with those that mess up.

China isn't hedging their bets. They know water cooled nuclear sucks and are moving towards either a fast breeder or an MSR reactor. They are installing solar and wind as fast as they can. 24 reactors under construction is huge anyways. 35% of all reactors under construction in the world.

China's policy instead is all of the above solution. They need energy first. I wish it was the climate change version of all of the above (everything that doesn't burn stuff). Emphasis on everything.


Night shift renewables you say ?

http://www.psmag.com/nature-and-technology/why-californias-solar-power-could-soon-be-curtailed

When ISO decides to start shutting down peaking and baseload NG plants in California you will have a point. I hope it happens, and I hope Tesla Energy gets a big credit to that. But until then, the guys that actually have the responsability to keep the lights on disagree with you.
 
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For me a near miss would be actually loosing coolant water and managing to fight the loss with emergency systems avoiding reactor damage.

That's my point... it only takes a loss of power or cooling to cause an accident; That can be caused by a lot of things other than a 40' wave... a fire, operator error... all it takes is for a valve to fail to open, or a weld to fail. That's why there's such stringent engineering checks and maintenance schedules. It's a big deal when you find that a redundant system has failed. 2 or 3 things have to go terribly wrong for an accident due to regulations. If you reduce that to 1 or 2 or minimize the perceived severity of a failure then your obviously increasing the odds of a failure.

IMO 1 release is too many.... what's your limit?
 
Like this?

Yep... that'll happen... but days like today are more common;

ems_renewables.gif



The last 20% from 80% => 20% is going to be the most challenging. We need an energy source that can be cost-effectively idled for >80% of the year to fill the remaining gaps.

Yeah..... pretty..... pretty sure none of that implied that a week without wind wasn't impossible........... kinda why I keep repeating myself in terms the need for storage......................... what part of storage don't you understand?


We won't need storage on the scale to carry the grid for a week for another ~15 years... predicting cost is about as productive as predicting todays solar cost 15 years ago... who thought solar would be ~$1.30/w today 15 years ago? No one. Many storage methods are incredibly simple... and very likely to be equally cheap.

First we won't need any generation for a few days.... then a week... then a few weeks.... then a month... in ~20 years we may only need generation a few weeks a year.... then a few days every couple years....