No further part 2 reveal for Model 3

[garsh]

What I can't figure out is why the software for the new hardware isn't ready yet.

This isn't the first time you've been perplexed by how long it takes others to complete this kind of work. I'm both frustrated by your statements (as a software developer), and yet fascinated at how you can believe that this type of work should be performed at a much faster rate. If you don't mind me asking, what do you do for a living?

 

[Bimbels]

I can't imagine that Tesla would have enough employees to keep pushing funds towards older technology. But, what do I know?

Elon has stated that updates to the current AP will continue.

He has also stated that the cars with the new sensors will run in shadow mode as they collect data. I am sure that is because it is required for validation for government approval. It is a new system, new sensors, and while there may be some overlap, I am sure given the new system this is how it has to be done.

 

[ecarfan]

New What about those TPS reports?! Unggghhh.
Tesla Production Sending of model 3s
I was depressed at the part 2. So was my wife. Expecting so much more.

I have no idea what "Tesla Production Sending of model 3s" means.

If you are "depressed" about the astonishing news from Tesla this week, perhaps it is because of your unrealistic expectations about the reveal, expectations based on rumors and unfounded speculation.

Not everything you read on TMC is true...

 

[tga]

I have no idea what "Tesla Production Sending of model 3s" means

A backronym for TPS. One of the many references to the great Mike Judge movie, "Office Space" in this thread (jump to conclusions mat, stealing red swingline stapler, TPS reports, etc).

 

[Ludus]

They had to announce the hardware because they had started installing it. It was one of the biggest anticipated events on the forums. It would have leaked anyway and been harder to manage the information and be fair about it.

The other big issue with Model 3 is about the interior instruments and steering wheel.

My speculation is Tesla still doesn't know if it can do what it wants. I think it wants to make Model 3 fully drive by wire including steering but isn't sure regulations will allow it.

An L5 capable vehicle doesn't need steering to have mechanical linkages and getting rid of them makes manufacturing significant easier. It fulfills a design goal of completely separating the skateboard with the entire drive train and the body.
Weight savings. Parts count savings. No need for different right hand, left hand and No driver versions. No need for a drivers side instrument cluster...make that a plug in HUD to go with the plug in steering wheel and pedals. Bodies can now be designed and manufactured as modules entirely separate from the skateboard. It's easier to advance the machine that makes the machine.

I'm guessing they think they can get regulatory approval but haven't quite yet.

 

[Ludus]

What I can't figure out is why the software for the new hardware isn't ready yet. Current owners won't be able to use anything for a few months now.

The hardware on a lot of vehicles in the real world makes it possible to develop the software. This software isn't written, it learns from experience. It needs at least several billion miles of driving experience. It will get that from being in a couple hundred thousand Teslas all over the world over the next year or two.

Even drivers who don't pay for the autonomous features have cars that will contribute data constantly. The cars will all start in shadow mode, making decisions about what they would do, without being allowed to actually impliment them. Tesla will be able to look at how the AP does in real world situations vs what the human driver did. The fleet will learn. Gradually Tesla will switch on features at first for beta test groups then more widely. It will look at what happens and repeat.

Silicon Valley appreciates that this is the ONLY way this sort of software can be developed efficiently. It can't be perfected in a research setting and be just released whole.

 

[Ludus]

In what way?
Sorry to be so unenthusiastic, but what is in any way revolutionary about the features Tesla has presented?
A Mercedes S class prototype drove from Mannheim to Pforzheim (the original route Bertha Benz took in 1888 in the first car her husband had made) fully autonomous - three years ago. And that was just as jaw dropping as anything we saw in the Tesla video.
And other manufacturers like BMW also have fully autonomous cars, they just don't offer them yet to customers. That is indeed a differentiating factor that Tesla can claim. But as they themselves state very clearly, the implementation of the functions will depend heavily on local legislation. And as at the moment - at least over here - level 5 autonomy cars are only allowed on public roads under strict conditions and in very few select areas, having that tech on board would be nice but not really usable in daily driving - yet.

I will be far more excited when they finally reveal the production interior and the "spaceship-like controls" that Elon mentioned.

The revolutionary part is Tesla is building the hardware into all of it's vehicles starting last week. Those vehicles already are designed around integrated software that can be updated OTA and stream data back OTA.

This sets up the end game for L5 vehicles. Refining the algorithms will take several billion miles of road experience under all conditions. Only hundreds of thousands of vehicles equipt like this can deliver the data to make L5 practically functional. In the next 18 months Tesla will have the several billion miles of experience needed.

Mercedes had a lab prototype do this drive, Google has been doing this for 5 years. Tesla has done it for a couple years too. This sort of thing could get the necessary data collection done in about 1000 years.

Or you could have 1000X as many vehicles doing it. Which is what's revolutionary.

 

[Ashkenaz]

After reading the biography on Elon Musk, and seeing the announcement this week, I'm pretty convinced this is more then just another product announcement. The model 3 is just another step towards sustainable transport and at which point we all decide to get on board, whether it be the S, the X or the 3, or whatever is after that, will not only be good for the planet, good for Tesla, but also enhance our own lives.

 

[ecarfan]

A backronym for TPS. One of the many references to the great Mike Judge movie, "Office Space" in this thread (jump to conclusions mat, stealing red swingline stapler, TPS reports, etc).

I still have no idea what TPS means in a way that relates to Tesla Motors.

 

[Garlan Garner]

The hardware on a lot of vehicles in the real world makes it possible to develop the software. This software isn't written, it learns from experience. It needs at least several billion miles of driving experience. It will get that from being in a couple hundred thousand Teslas all over the world over the next year or two.

Even drivers who don't pay for the autonomous features have cars that will contribute data constantly. The cars will all start in shadow mode, making decisions about what they would do, without being allowed to actually impliment them. Tesla will be able to look at how the AP does in real world situations vs what the human driver did. The fleet will learn. Gradually Tesla will switch on features at first for beta test groups then more widely. It will look at what happens and repeat.

Silicon Valley appreciates that this is the ONLY way this sort of software can be developed efficiently. It can't be perfected in a research setting and be just released whole.

Why didn't they just wait to reveal the hardware until the software is ready?

 

[pangolina]

Why didn't they just wait to reveal the hardware until the software is ready?

Well this software is more like a driver which learns how to drive The more real world experience it will have the better. This what will make it truly "ready". For a while it just going to ride as a passenger... or a co-pilot ? and observe.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This was not really Model 3 Part 2. It was only Model 3-related in that he said Model 3 would have the new hardware. This was "We need to get past our current AP issues, we need to keep selling S and X and we don't want people holding off waiting for the new AP hardware so from this point on new Model S/X have AP2 hardware. Get your new shiny now!"

 

[diamond.g]

Why didn't they just wait to reveal the hardware until the software is ready?

The software requires the hardware to be in service to get the data required to work.

I guess they could have gone the test mule route, but how much longer would we have to wait to get working software with only a dozen test mules?

 

[Model 3]

This was not really Model 3 Part 2.

Yes it was. Not the "part 2" event you or I did expect, but it was the part 2 that Elon had in mind when he said that the interior of the prototype Model 3 would make sense after part 2. At that time I thought that the interior was just a cheap mock-up waiting for it to be finalized, now I see that Tesla think we really do not need an IC in front of the driver at all. And this makes the comment about "it will feel like a spaceship" make sense. Just jump in and tell the spaceship/car "go to Alpha Centauri!" - or at least "go home" - and the spaceship - sorry: the car - does the rest.

So, looking forward to part 3 and hope that they have changed their mind about the IC...

 

[Garlan Garner]

Well this software is more like a driver which learns how to drive The more real world experience it will have the better. This what will make it truly "ready". For a while it just going to ride as a passenger... or a co-pilot ? and observe.

I would have hoped that the software could have at least been as good as the previous software, however I understand that they are starting over and have made promises to get software out there by New Years.

I hope they aren't delayed....lol

 

[Garlan Garner]

The software requires the hardware to be in service to get the data required to work.

I guess they could have gone the test mule route, but how much longer would we have to wait to get working software with only a dozen test mules?

Good question: Elon said that some software will be out there by New Years.

What I'm wondering is if there can be any more updates to the "Now Old" platform since they have divorced from Mobile Eye.

 

[JeffK]

What I'm wondering is if there can be any more updates to the "Now Old" platform since they have divorced from Mobile Eye.

He said during the call that they will continue to provide (software) updates for the autopilot v1 platform.

 

[gregd]

Why didn't they just wait to reveal the hardware until the software is ready?

They needed to explain why, if you buy one of the newly-minted cars with the 2.0 hardware, a bunch of existing AP-related features have been disabled. They'll be re-enabled with an OTA software update in the future (a few months?), but in the mean time, they will be very conspicuously missing. Can't hide that.

 

[JeffK]

They needed to explain why, if you buy one of the newly-minted cars with the 2.0 hardware, a bunch of existing AP-related features have been disabled. They'll be re-enabled with an OTA software update in the future (a few months?), but in the mean time, they will be very conspicuously missing. Can't hide that.

That and people would notice the cameras and go nuts... People were already looking for new cameras when the Model X came out.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

They needed to explain why, if you buy one of the newly-minted cars with the 2.0 hardware, a bunch of existing AP-related features have been disabled. They'll be re-enabled with an OTA software update in the future (a few months?), but in the mean time, they will be very conspicuously missing. Can't hide that.

Have you happened to notice the current projected delivery dates on a Model S right now? I just speced out a car on the Tesla site and anything less than a P100D is showing a December delivery. So, unless your going to get the $140000 rocket, you will be getting your car about the same time the AP 2.0 updates will be sent out. It's a wash.

Dan