My Experience With EAP Suggests Not Only Won't FSD Go Up In Price, It's Going To Go Down

[FredMertz]

People seem to forget the things that Elon gets wrong, but I think this one is a doozy.

Not only do I not think we will see Level 4 autonomy any time soon, but I think the advanced features that currently command a premium in a Tesla will become less expensive over time, not more.

My weekend with EAP has increased my conviction that there is a huge Catch-22 on the road to autonomy. I don't think it will be viable until a large majority of cars on the road are operating with it on standardized software. How enough people will buy cars with that capability on faith that others will too -- I don't know.

My brief trial with it required more attention and effort than actually driving, especially on interchanges where you do the old swap -- you get off the highway, making room for someone to get on. The interaction between an autonomous car and a manually driven car just seems too unpredictable to be figured out safely. Even autonomous and autonomous with different software and hardware seems like a tough nut to crack. I think it is going to require cars that can communicate with each other act in tandem. That seems a long ways off. Maybe 5G will accelerate that a bit, but it doesn't seem like anyone's even talking about that as a possibility yet. Automakers still seem stuck on proprietary systems.

So back to Tesla and FSD pricing -- more people will try these features and see the limited current use cases at the same time that other manufacturers begin incorporating these features into their cars. The increased competition will force the prices down -- we've already seen Cadillac price SuperCruise at $15/month on top of a pre-existing connectivity cost.

Just think back to something like 3D tv. 3D tvs commanded a significant premium for at least 1-2 Christmas seasons. Then everyone had it, the use case was marginal at best and the next thing you knew, every tv had 3D capability buried on the feature list for no premium.

And none of this makes me bearish on Tesla. These are growing pains that every industry has to go through in times of revolutionary technology. Anything that makes people more comfortable with EVs and more comfortable with limited self-driving functionality will benefit the maker of the best mousetrap, and right now, that's Tesla. By a mile. I love, love, love my MY. It replaced a Macan and I like almost every part of it better than the Porsche.

But charging MORE for pre-alpha software when it moves to alpha or beta? That's not happening. And by the time it's ready for mass consumption, everyone is going to offer it.

 

[glide]

Agree completely. There is NO compelling reason. To purchase FSD.

The re-introduction of EAP is proof.

 

[Berkshire1]

Here's a radical idea...not only is EAP and FSD not worth the upcharge...it should be free. Example. automatic lane change: this is what it's supposed to do but the driver should keep hands on the wheel, eyes on the road, check for cars in the blind spot and, oh yea, if a car is coming up fast in adjacent lane, the driver is responsible to abort. We are all beta testers sending data to Tesla to improve the system. That's ok, but none of the features work consistently or with any reliability. Always keep your hands on the wheel, pay attention, and be ready for the system to screw up! It's less stressful just to drive yourself.

 

[steve841]

Tend to agree. I've never considered FSD a motivation at all.

I do like the autopilot on the highway. But, even with that, you've got to watch out for idiots and road debris as if you were manually driving. So, the convenience factor lessens.

 

[Berkshire1]

And another little peeve.... Upcharge for acceleration improvement? Why not sell the Tesla with a 0-60 time of 8 or 9 seconds then Tesla could charge $2000 per second improvement to get the time where it really could be at the time of sale...pure profit for Tesla. Don't get me wrong, I love my MY but I think that these upcharges are a bit of a scam!

 

[MY-Y]

I find FSD makes my drive safer and easier. I really like the lane change features.

 

[Catbiscuits]

Yeah it takes a while to get used to it. A weekend isn’t anywhere near enough. When I’m on highways I use FSD 95% of the time and I don’t feel whipped at the end of the drive. On city streets I use it about 50% of the time.

 

[animorph]

Too early to render a judgement on FSD until the rewrite is available and FSD features completed. EAP doesn't even require the FSD computer!

 

[alexcue]

I find FSD makes my drive safer and easier. I really like the lane change features.

isn’t that part of EAP?

 

[bayareaever]

People seem to forget the things that Elon gets wrong, but I think this one is a doozy.

Not only do I not think we will see Level 4 autonomy any time soon, but I think the advanced features that currently command a premium in a Tesla will become less expensive over time, not more.

My weekend with EAP has increased my conviction that there is a huge Catch-22 on the road to autonomy. I don't think it will be viable until a large majority of cars on the road are operating with it on standardized software. How enough people will buy cars with that capability on faith that others will too -- I don't know.

My brief trial with it required more attention and effort than actually driving, especially on interchanges where you do the old swap -- you get off the highway, making room for someone to get on. The interaction between an autonomous car and a manually driven car just seems too unpredictable to be figured out safely. Even autonomous and autonomous with different software and hardware seems like a tough nut to crack. I think it is going to require cars that can communicate with each other act in tandem. That seems a long ways off. Maybe 5G will accelerate that a bit, but it doesn't seem like anyone's even talking about that as a possibility yet. Automakers still seem stuck on proprietary systems.

So back to Tesla and FSD pricing -- more people will try these features and see the limited current use cases at the same time that other manufacturers begin incorporating these features into their cars. The increased competition will force the prices down -- we've already seen Cadillac price SuperCruise at $15/month on top of a pre-existing connectivity cost.

Just think back to something like 3D tv. 3D tvs commanded a significant premium for at least 1-2 Christmas seasons. Then everyone had it, the use case was marginal at best and the next thing you knew, every tv had 3D capability buried on the feature list for no premium.

And none of this makes me bearish on Tesla. These are growing pains that every industry has to go through in times of revolutionary technology. Anything that makes people more comfortable with EVs and more comfortable with limited self-driving functionality will benefit the maker of the best mousetrap, and right now, that's Tesla. By a mile. I love, love, love my MY. It replaced a Macan and I like almost every part of it better than the Porsche.

But charging MORE for pre-alpha software when it moves to alpha or beta? That's not happening. And by the time it's ready for mass consumption, everyone is going to offer it.

This is an endless argument to have as long as future features are theoretical.

I’ve had FSD on m3 for over two years and I can tell you it has vastly improved with a long list of new features that didn’t seem all that possible in 2018. I’d bet a lot of money that it will continue to improve over time and probably by a lot.

Don’t hold your breath for the price dropping going forward. Elon already said it will not even be an option in the future- just rolled into the car price (maybe not the lowest price models). I tend to believe him, but call me naive!

 

[FredMertz]

And another little peeve.... Upcharge for acceleration improvement? Why not sell the Tesla with a 0-60 time of 8 or 9 seconds then Tesla could charge $2000 per second improvement to get the time where it really could be at the time of sale...pure profit for Tesla. Don't get me wrong, I love my MY but I think that these upcharges are a bit of a scam!

This is going to be the future of car ownership -- unlocking things at the time of. purchase or a la carte upgrades when you need them.

Going on a big trip? $50 for a 7-day range extension. $10 for a supercharger charging rate upgrade. It's inevitable, if not right around the corner.

 

[FredMertz]

This is an endless argument to have as long as future features are theoretical.

I’ve had FSD on m3 for over two years and I can tell you it has vastly improved with a long list of new features that didn’t seem all that possible in 2018. I’d bet a lot of money that it will continue to improve over time and probably by a lot.

Don’t hold your breath for the price dropping going forward. Elon already said it will not even be an option in the future- just rolled into the car price (maybe not the lowest price models). I tend to believe him, but call me naive!

He won't lower it because he wants to, he'll lower it because he has to. He's enjoyed a long run outside the sights of the big guys, but that's about to end.

 

[captanzuelo]

This is going to be the future of car ownership -- unlocking things at the time of. purchase or a la carte upgrades when you need them.

Going on a big trip? $50 for a 7-day range extension. $10 for a supercharger charging rate upgrade. It's inevitable, if not right around the corner.

Sounds like the Ryan Air model of ancillary fees!

I don't think the 3D TV analogy applies. Nobody really ever wanted to wear 3D glasses while watching the tube. Now, if they had 3D picture without glasses that would have been a game changer.

 

[glide]

Too early to render a judgement on FSD until the rewrite is available and FSD features completed. EAP doesn't even require the FSD computer!

How is it too early to render judgement if it’s a product they are up-selling to consumers for $8K?

I’d say we are free to judge-away at this stage.

 

[glide]

isn’t that part of EAP?

Yes. Since they re-introduced the EAP option, FSD is pretty much a $5K nothing-burger.

 

[captanzuelo]

Yes. Since they re-introduced the EAP option, FSD is pretty much a $5K nothing-burger.

$5K so the car will stop at lights and stop signs. Yea, no thanks

 

[75Shappyt]

at first I didn't like FSD, after a month of using it, I would be lost without it, I love it

 

[FredMertz]

Sounds like the Ryan Air model of ancillary fees!

I don't think the 3D TV analogy applies. Nobody really ever wanted to wear 3D glasses while watching the tube. Now, if they had 3D picture without glasses that would have been a game changer.

I know it wasn't perfect, but at the time, people paid hundreds of dollars more for the same tv equipped with 3D. Some of that was for the glasses, sure, but they still paid it. Then they tried it and didn't much like it. So the analogy is there, just not perfect.

 

[qdeathstar]

Fsd is a dream, eap is reality. Pay for the dream or don’t. Dreams aren’t gonna go down in price.

As far as it costing more or less in the future, Elon didn’t say more in real dollars. By the time you account for inflation, it could cost more in real dollars whenever it is achieved. Look at how much the dollar has devalued between 1950 and today. Imagine what it will look like in 2050. See.

 

[jf64k]

IMHO, A weekend isn’t enough to get used to it.

I just bought EAP for my MY LR. When I first used NoAP, it required MORE attention from me, simply because I didn’t trust it and I didn’t know exactly what was going on with the new warnings and prompts I was getting. Especially at interchanges.

Now that I’ve used it a few more times, it’s gotten easier. I’m particularly smitten with auto lane change (both for NoAP and just AP). Such a cool feature.

Also, I don’t know if this is because of EAP or 2020.36.11 or both, but it’s gotten MUCH better in curves.

With all that said, I think you’re on to something when it comes ti pricing. I see it going down over the long haul.