I'm going with business decision, with a dash of extreme caution and limited bandwidth thrown in.
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Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production
- Thread starter bonnie
- Start date
I agree and while we are lucky I am not running TM it is what I would have done. Business reasons for delay: The model S is a very highly rated vehicle and they have most, if not all, the 'glitches' worked out and are producing them rapidly. Still not rapidly enough to meet demand and they have high margins. Add the AWD to this vehicle to 'test' it before putting it into the new 'X' and to further increase demand/add to margins. In addition, the bar has been set very high by the model S. The 'X' needs to be 'perfect' on release as the ramp up will be fast and you don't want lots of problems. So test, retest, and test again before mass production.
My wild and crazy guess is that Tesla's decided to introduce the Model X with higher battery capacity, but the new batteries aren't ready yet, or the cost hasn't quite come down yet.
Here is my really way-out-there prediction for Tesla in 2015:
The Model X Design Studio becomes available in Q1, and to the surprise of everyone, the battery configurations are higher than expected: say, 75 and 100 KWh instead of 60 and 85. But even more astoundingly, the battery packs are fully form-factor compatible with old Model S cars, and Tesla offers new battery pack upgrades for everyone who wants 'em, as the old cars can take the swaps no problem and the firmware goes oh ok sure, you're at 100 KWh now ok. In other words, the delay is not the damn Falcon wing door, it's the battery expansion project, and this one time Tesla will do the right thing, and let old cars upgrade for a fee. And if Tesla were REALLY smart they'd buy back the old battery packs and reconfigure them for stationary storage use and resell them again, perhaps through Solar City.
Here is my really way-out-there prediction for Tesla in 2015:
The Model X Design Studio becomes available in Q1, and to the surprise of everyone, the battery configurations are higher than expected: say, 75 and 100 KWh instead of 60 and 85. But even more astoundingly, the battery packs are fully form-factor compatible with old Model S cars, and Tesla offers new battery pack upgrades for everyone who wants 'em, as the old cars can take the swaps no problem and the firmware goes oh ok sure, you're at 100 KWh now ok. In other words, the delay is not the damn Falcon wing door, it's the battery expansion project, and this one time Tesla will do the right thing, and let old cars upgrade for a fee. And if Tesla were REALLY smart they'd buy back the old battery packs and reconfigure them for stationary storage use and resell them again, perhaps through Solar City.
JakeP
S P4996 ==> P02547
Clearly, this is an ace that Elon is holding up his sleeve for a few years down the road, when the battery warranties begin to expire. Hang the old one on your garage wall, fill it up with solar during the day, charge your car at night, and act an a whole-house generator when the power goes out. Distributed generation becomes reality.
Trev Page
Member
I agree with many that Model X needs to be "perfect" as the Model S has set such a high standard. Tesla. Cannot afford negative press on the X. They need it to win awards. Another observation however is that when they introduced it it had the cameras for side mirrors. While they have since shown prototypes with regular mirrors Tesla has been pushing legislation to get cameras legalized for side mirrors. Another post in the board here mentioned the legislation is in the late stages of being ratified so perhaps they are also waiting until the last possible minute to reveal the final Model X with cameras for side mirrors effectively making Model the very first production car with such a feature...?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Q3 2015. Sharholders 2014 Q3 letter:
"Work continues on the finalization of Model X with the testing of Alpha prototypes and initial builds of the first Beta prototypes. Model X powertrain development is almost complete with the early introduction of Dual Motor drive on Model S. We recently decided to build in significantly more validation testing time to achieve the best Model X possible. This will also allow for a more rapid production ramp compared to Model S in 2012. In anticipation of this effort, we now expect Model X deliveries to start in Q3 of 2015, a few months later than previously expected. This also is a legitimate criticism of Tesla – we prefer to forgo revenue, rather than bring a product to market that does not delight customers. Doing so negatively affects the short term, but positively affects the long term. There are many other companies that do not follow this philosophy that may be a more attractive home for investor capital. Tesla is not going to change."
"Work continues on the finalization of Model X with the testing of Alpha prototypes and initial builds of the first Beta prototypes. Model X powertrain development is almost complete with the early introduction of Dual Motor drive on Model S. We recently decided to build in significantly more validation testing time to achieve the best Model X possible. This will also allow for a more rapid production ramp compared to Model S in 2012. In anticipation of this effort, we now expect Model X deliveries to start in Q3 of 2015, a few months later than previously expected. This also is a legitimate criticism of Tesla – we prefer to forgo revenue, rather than bring a product to market that does not delight customers. Doing so negatively affects the short term, but positively affects the long term. There are many other companies that do not follow this philosophy that may be a more attractive home for investor capital. Tesla is not going to change."
I'm interpreting that to mean Elon is not happy with the X in the state it's currently in. I wonder how many heads are rolling, however, because of the state that it's currently in instead of being in the state that it was supposed to be in.
I believe many suspected this X delay. Bonnie practically said she knew it would be late Q2 or early Q3. This does not come as a surprise to me at all. I do wonder how many X reservations will be converted to AWD S based on confirmation of this rumor.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This actually may not be the case. Delay of the X could be due to an abundance of caution with validation. They plan a rapid ramp, and in the meantime, there is no shortage of demand for Model S.
I think that people generally reserved X for these main reasons (1) They wanted AWD or (2) They wanted more cargo space, or (3) some combination of (1) and (2). Pulling numbers out of thin air, I'm going to guess that those in category (3) fall within 1 standard deviation of the average buyer, or about 68% of reservations. That leaves about 16% of people who wanted only AWD, and 16% of people who wanted only more cargo space.
So to start, around 16% conversion for category (1), buyers who really only wanted AWD.
Throw in a the "D-factor" of (a) X customer impatience and (b) X customers drooling over performance of the P85D, I'm going to say an additional 5-10% would convert just because the D is awesome and they want it ASAP.
So my rough guess is that between 21-26% of Model X reserve holders will convert to an 85D or P85D.
This is totally unscientific, but its the best I can calculate.
Hugh Mannity
Mediocre Member
I'm interpreting it to mean that Tesla would prefer the only-wanted-it-for-the-AWD buyers to get a 85D.
felixtb
RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4
Converting is out of the question! However, the situation is not great even with a low EU sig reservation, its going to be spring 2016 before I get mine..... :-(
Trev Page
Member
I'm listening to the Q3 financials calls and Elon clearly stated about the X that "we're adding some new stuff that's not really out there". I take this as meaning they're going to be putting in some features that have yet to be announced. Again, I think the reference is about the camera mirrors since Tesla has said many times they'd like to do that but they are waiting on legislation to change in the US for this to happen. He also mentioned the second row seats again so we can expect something special about those. He said the drivetrain and lower end of the car are not an issue and that's been sorted out.
robby
Member
I hope that doesn't lead to more price-creep. I reserved based on "Model S price + small single digit percentage for AWD"... which based on the D option wound up being a mid-high single digit percentage, then it got bumped by another $1,000, all while the options have been getting wrapped into more expensive bundles. I'm worried at this rate that by the time the X is available I will be priced out of it.
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