Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production

[andrewket]

Or 5 adult passengers and three large-ish dogs.

View attachment 63105

Woof.

 

[Merrill]

So I have read many thoughts on how many Model X will be in production starting Q3, anyone have a guess on the weekly number.

 

[Earlian]

Q3 means late september...

 

[Svenssons]

So I have read many thoughts on how many Model X will be in production starting Q3, anyone have a guess on the weekly number.

Atleast one (if not delayed)... Elon spoke about it on the Q3 meeting. I don't think anyone have any other information they are able to publish. Listen to the meeting.

http://ir.teslamotors.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=880849

 

[timf]

It's easy to take a pessimistic view given Tesla's track record. To take a more optimistic stance, they aren't going to delay the Model X more than need be. There will be a sizeable number of pre-production units built which will end up as display models, demos and loaners. These will probably start before the end of Q2 so they can be thoroughly checked for issues. Once they are confident that no major issues exist, customer orders will start being built. The ramp up should be very quick, on the order of several hundred units a week within the first month.

 

[gjunky]

It's easy to take a pessimistic view given Tesla's track record. To take a more optimistic stance, they aren't going to delay the Model X more than need be. There will be a sizeable number of pre-production units built which will end up as display models, demos and loaners. These will probably start before the end of Q2 so they can be thoroughly checked for issues. Once they are confident that no major issues exist, customer orders will start being built. The ramp up should be very quick, on the order of several hundred units a week within the first month.

I think you are right except for one thing. I don't think the pre-production models will be used as loaners as they will probably not be road legal yet. Lots of display models for stores though.

 

[lettyortiz]

Hello. When you say late 2014, just how late?

 

[pairtrader]

My apologies if this has been discussed, but is there any reason to believe that the Model X battery pack may exceed 85kWh? I'm anxious to see the magnitude of the next increase in pack capacity.

 

[aronth5]

There are many on this forum who believe when the Model X is announced it will have a larger battery pack. I haven't seen any information to support this other than wishful thinking.

 

[Merrill]

So to get back to my original question, do we think starting in Q3 they can build 500, 400 or 300 Model X per week.

 

[tftf]

I'm listening to the Q3 financials calls and Elon clearly stated about the X that "we're adding some new stuff that's not really out there". I take this as meaning they're going to be putting in some features that have yet to be announced. Again, I think the reference is about the camera mirrors since Tesla has said many times they'd like to do that but they are waiting on legislation to change in the US for this to happen. He also mentioned the second row seats again so we can expect something special about those. He said the drivetrain and lower end of the car are not an issue and that's been sorted out.

What about international deliveries even if US legislation changes by the time Model X ships? Will Tesla build two X car variants? I think getting approval in most international markets will even take longer.

PS: In general, I think volume deliveries could well slip into Q4 2015 or later at this point, with Q3 2015 just about a few Signature deliveries to meet the latest announced deadline.

 

[fengshui]

What about international deliveries even if US legislation changes by the time Model X ships? Will Tesla build two X car variants? I think getting approval in most international markets will even take longer.

PS: In general, I think volume deliveries could well slip into Q4 2015 or later at this point, with Q3 2015 just about a few Signature deliveries to meet the latest announced deadline.

Rear-view cameras are in the process of being coordinated through the ISO:
ISO/FDIS 16505 - Road vehicles -- Ergonomic and performance aspects of Camera Monitor Systems -- Requirements and test procedures

Once that is voted on (up or down), adoption by national regulators can be pretty quick, since there's already an international standard.

 

[gjunky]

Tesla could simply integrate a camera in the mirror mounts and have the software and the display already integrated when the X comes out. Once the regulations are in place, it would be a simple retrofit to remove the actual mirrors and leave the stalks with the cameras for the people that want it (prefer just the cameras and no mirrors).

 

[aronth5]

Tesla could simply integrate a camera in the mirror mounts and have the software and the display already integrated when the X comes out. Once the regulations are in place, it would be a simple retrofit to remove the actual mirrors and leave the stalks with the cameras for the people that want it (prefer just the cameras and no mirrors).

Nothing is ever that simple.

 

[gjunky]

Nothing is ever that simple.

Agreed but on the scale of designing a car from scratch (started with the Model S), this seems a relatively easy thing to engineer and it would be good for (near) future ways to adapt already delivered cars once the regulation goes through. This would avoid a lot of people from complaining about retrofits that are not possible because of changes in the wiring harness. Putting the wiring and even a camera in place from the start but leaving the mirrors for now would allow for a much easier upgrade at that time.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Kind of surprised I'm the one posting this...

Found it at the Swedish Tesla Club site – here:

Model X teaser - Tesla Club Sweden


They claim they in turn found it on Tesla's site. But I can't find it there...

 

[bonnie]

Kind of surprised I'm the one posting this...

Found it at the Swedish Tesla Club site – here:

Model X teaser - Tesla Club Sweden


They claim they in turn found it on Tesla's site. But I can't find it there...

That's from the email sent to Model X reservation holders on Nov. 18th. The full email and discussion can be found here: Model X Update Email 11/18/2014.

 

[bluenation]

i know elon already said falcon doors are coming, but man, i have to wonder there's a lot of ppl who would be inconvenienced by them. And...i wish there was a SUV body style that was not so coupe. Something like the bmw x5, not x6

 

[bonnie]

i know elon already said falcon doors are coming, but man, i have to wonder there's a lot of ppl who would be inconvenienced by them. And...i wish there was a SUV body style that was not so coupe. Something like the bmw x5, not x6

Kind of reminds me of pre-Model S days when some people were hoping there might be a small ICE buried in there somewhere, "just in case", so they wouldn't be inconvenienced. No car is perfect for everyone. By definition, there will always be a lot of people inconvenienced by any car introduced to the market.

 

[Earlian]

The longer I have to wait, the clearer are the facts that it will be nice, unique and especially the doors won't be an issue, they will be the key-must-have feature for all who pretent they don't like em.

Just think about: How many cars are out there with wing doors, and what types are that? Gullwing , SLS
- The X

You see the road...