Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production

[InTheShadows]

I'm very happy that they've finally gotten the design down and are preparing for manufacturing. I'd of course be happier if there wasn't a slip in the timeline, but it's more important for Tesla to get the Model X right than to get it out quickly.

I agree completely. They have the chance to learn from their mistakes with the Roadster and the S. If they roll out the X perfectly. Imagine the buzz for when the III rolls off the line.

Besides we don't need a Windows 95 or Vista type event.

 

[AlMc]

The message has been consistent and I have not heard anything about it having to do with Model S demand. Why do you believe that is the reason? Everything I've heard from folks who would know, everything stated publicly has been consistent: Elon was unhappy with certain aspects of the design and sent it back to be rethought through. I am comfortable with that explanation, since I hear the same from every single person who would be in a position to actually know.
Bonnie....I have ZERO hard evidence for my reasoning. However, I think it is logical to assume there is less time pressure on the 'X' development team with the S selling well coupled with battery constraints to get the X out there asap. If S reservations were falling and battery supply was plentiful I believe there would already be an AWD S and the X timeline would be different.
- - - Updated - - -



Not this one.

xxx

 

[bonnie]

Bonnie....I have ZERO hard evidence for my reasoning. However, I think it is logical to assume there is less time pressure on the 'X' development team with the S selling well coupled with battery constraints to get the X out there asap. If S reservations were falling and battery supply was plentiful I believe there would already be an AWD S and the X timeline would be different.

I am not arguing the logic, Al. I just know what is said publicly and what is said privately and there just is no evidence that this is true. I'd also caution against thinking there are separate X and S development teams. I think it is more a case that a very small number (like single digit small number) of people have been focused on X and as people come off the S team, they are joining the X team.

As far as the AWD S goes, we've already seen evidence of that being tested. There are still regulatory hurdles to get through, stuff like that doesn't happen overnight. I've been saying we'd see the announcement on that in the fall. I'm still saying that.

 

[AlMc]

I am not arguing the logic, Al. I just know what is said publicly and what is said privately and there just is no evidence that this is true. I'd also caution against thinking there are separate X and S development teams. I think it is more a case that a very small number (like single digit small number) of people have been focused on X and as people come off the S team, they are joining the X team.

As far as the AWD S goes, we've already seen evidence of that being tested. There are still regulatory hurdles to get through, stuff like that doesn't happen overnight. I've been saying we'd see the announcement on that in the fall. I'm still saying that.

Even given my suspicion, I am still hopeful you will see your X before end of 1st Q 2015. Would like to see all Sigs by the end of 2014 as I would like to take advantage of the tax credit in 2014 (selfish reasoning) and my wife's vehicle is a gasaholic.

 

[engle]

From the Q1 conference call transcript just posted on SeekingAlpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2201363-tesla-motors-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-on-q1-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=1&p=qanda&l=last

"Colin W. Rusch – Northland Capital Markets

With the Model X, previously you talked about going into production before the end of 2014. Can I just understand exactly what you’re saying with the prototypes being done by the end of the year versus production, and how we should think about that relative to the previous comments?

Elon R. Musk

Yes, there’s no question we’re delayed on the Model X, although that’s I wouldn’t say particularly new information. Relative to our earlier forecast, we had to spend a lot more time making sure we got the Model S right, and it took longer to get to some of the international markets and what not. So it just didn’t make sense for us to be focusing on Model X if we didn’t have our Model S house in order. I think we're in pretty good shape on the S front, so our focus is very heavily on the X, and just making sure it's a phenomenal product. And, we expect to be ramping production cars roughly Q2 next year.

We'll have the production design articles, I guess beta articles or production-release candidates around the end of this year, but we want to make sure we've got a decent period of validation with those release-candidate vehicles, because the production ramp for Model X will be much greater than for S, so much deeper. So with S we have quite a shallow production ramp, start off real slow and as we encountered issues we were able to correct them without having a large number of cars in production on the roads.

With X it's going to be sharp ramp, which means we really need to make sure that we've properly validated issues and made sure in all temperatures and climates and road types that the car is really solid before ramping up production. Otherwise, we would risk having a recall or a bad customer experience."


The devil is in the details:

"Elon R. Musk

Model X is like the biggest driver for R&D expense honestly. You know, with the X we're really trying to make an amazing car and very importantly to have a car that where the production version is better than the prototype, better than the show car. The one thing that drives me crazy about the car industry is like you will see up in these great show cars. And then when you actually get the production car it's some bizarre dumbed-down facsimile of the exciting prototype that was displayed, that's terrible.

So the base line expectation of Tesla is that whenever we have a prototype, the production car is better in everyway, so that's quite difficult to do, and requires some creative problem solving with Model X the biggest challenges is the buckling door making sure that there is truly a step change in utility for the car and not a gimmick. So it’s got to work perfectly and the details have to be just right, and it's amazing how – its like sitting at little things become quite significant engineering challenges.

Such as for example getting the seals on the buckling door to work properly and not be too prominent so that you got seal against rain, winds and against road noise, but you've got something that's articulating across multiple hinges. You've got key junction joints and that kind of thing. So it's quite a difficult ceiling problem to really get it right and be consistent and remain good over many years. So we spend a lot of time on seal engineering."


For my P83, There are 1,282 vehicles that need to "sharp ramp" in front of me. I wonder how fast the planned "sharp ramp" will be? 50-75-100-150-200-200-250-250-300?

Best case if they started in early April with this "sharp ramp" I just pulled out of thin air, maybe I'd get mine at the start of June? If "roughly Q2" becomes the end of Q2, then I would see delivery perhaps around the end of August. Therefore, we've decided to return our 2-year leased diesel SUV now, since a max 6-month extension would not be nearly enough. We'll just lease something very different from Model X for 2 years to more than bridge the gap, such as an E350 Cabriolet.

 

[brianman]

Besides we don't need a Windows 95 or Vista type event.

I don't understand the first half of this assertion. I think we have different memories of history. The latter I'll grant though.

 

[timf]

For my P83, There are 1,282 vehicles that need to "sharp ramp" in front of me. I wonder how fast the planned "sharp ramp" will be? 50-75-100-150-200-200-250-250-300?

Best case if they started in early April with this "sharp ramp" I just pulled out of thin air, maybe I'd get mine at the start of June? If "roughly Q2" becomes the end of Q2, then I would see delivery perhaps around the end of August. Therefore, we've decided to return our 2-year leased diesel SUV now, since a max 6-month extension would not be nearly enough. We'll just lease something very different from Model X for 2 years to more than bridge the gap, such as an E350 Cabriolet.

I've put a lot of thought in this in determining how long I could wait to make a reservation. It's been evident for quite some time that the schedule has been slipping, and at this time I would expect Q2 to be for Signature deliveries only, with production deliveries beginning around Q3. I interpret a sharp ramp-up to mean that by the time they start building the general production vehicles, they will be going at their planned maximum production rate. I'm not sure what this number will be, but I'd guess 2,000 a month at the low end. With reservation numbers closing in on 10,000 in the U.S. that's about 5 months worth of production if everyone orders (and excluding other countries), which is right about when I would want delivery so now is the time to reserve. In reality, I think my expectations will turn out to be conservative and I'll have to postpone delivery for a couple months, but until the first Model X rolls off the line it's all a huge guess.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Hard not to say: were the falcon doors really worth it?! They appear to be the single most complicated part of the X that seems to be taking a lot of time and resources to get right. AWD seems to have been long-accomplished.

A conventional SUV with regular rear doors may have been a done deal by now. But, that wouldn't be very Elon Musk-like now, would it?!

 

[bonnie]

Hard not to say: were the falcon doors really worth it?! They appear to be the single most complicated part of the X that seems to be taking a lot of time and resources to get right. AWD seems to have been long-accomplished.

A conventional SUV with regular rear doors may have been a done deal by now. But, that wouldn't be very Elon Musk-like now, would it?!

You nailed the question worth asking, gg. I believe the doors are the cause of the delay ... and I also believe the publicity surrounding the doors are a huge factor leading to the number of reservations today. Since Tesla is still suppy-constrained, probably a moot point, but still worth asking.

 

[AnOutsider]

Hard not to say: were the falcon doors really worth it?! They appear to be the single most complicated part of the X that seems to be taking a lot of time and resources to get right. AWD seems to have been long-accomplished.

A conventional SUV with regular rear doors may have been a done deal by now. But, that wouldn't be very Elon Musk-like now, would it?!

heh, I posed the same question to my wife. The doors are definitely cool, but I would've bought it with normal doors to be honest. It was delayed a year, and now likely another 6 months, so no we're driving a gas guzzling SUV until then

 

[Ugliest1]

I really liked Elon's comment about wanting the first production version of the X to be better than the show car. That's from a customer perspective. Then, getting the engineering exactly right (the doors, and rain, and complex hinges, etc) is vital. And thirdly, making sure they don't have to retrofit all sorts of whatever fixes of course makes complete financial sense. So I'm not impatient. Of course, I have no reason to be since I'm lucky just to be able to afford a Model S, and won't be in the lineup for the X. :crying:

 

[mikevbf]

For my P83, There are 1,282 vehicles that need to "sharp ramp" in front of me. I wonder how fast the planned "sharp ramp" will be? 50-75-100-150-200-200-250-250-300?

Best case if they started in early April with this "sharp ramp" I just pulled out of thin air, maybe I'd get mine at the start of June? If "roughly Q2" becomes the end of Q2, then I would see delivery perhaps around the end of August.

My production number is P89 which means best case I would get my Model X in early June like Elon. Although, he did say he "just pulled out of thin air". Still it would be nice to get my Model X for my birthday next year in June ...

 

[Paul Carter]

I'm confused! Is there been an official delay or are people reading into production ramp up to be Q2 != Spring 2015? I've emailed Tesla for clarification. Wish me luck!

---
update:
I think right before my very eyes.
DELIVERIES BEGIN IN 2014.

is no longer showing! DOH

 

[AnOutsider]

I'm confused! Is there been an official delay or are people reading into production ramp up to be Q2 != Spring 2015? I've emailed Tesla for clarification. Wish me luck!

---
update:
I think right before my very eyes.
DELIVERIES BEGIN IN 2014.

is no longer showing! DOH

Yes, Elon even said on the call there was a delay.

 

[engle]

My production number is P89 which means best case I would get my Model X in early June like Elon. Although, he did say he "just pulled out of thin air". Still it would be nice to get my Model X for my birthday next year in June ...

Mike, that was *after* Elon's quote!! He didn't say that -- I was just guestimating on my own. I'll go back and put his words in a different color to make the quote more clear. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[aznt1217]

Yes, Elon even said on the call there was a delay.

No I think he was just reiterating the delay mentioned in the past... that or he is setting up for overdelivering on a promise by lowering expectations. If you notice the wording on the site very carefully it says NEW RESERVATIONS delivery in Summer 2015.... what about the existing. If there's 12k+ reservations, that means they are going to ship all of those + model S' in 6 months time... ?

 

[Paul Carter]

No I think he was just reiterating the delay mentioned in the past... that or he is setting up for overdelivering on a promise by lowering expectations. If you notice the wording on the site very carefully it says NEW RESERVATIONS delivery in Summer 2015.... what about the existing. If there's 12k+ reservations, that means they are going to ship all of those + model S' in 6 months time... ?

Got a call back from Tesla this evening about this too. Said its a fair question and was being passed onto management.

Due note that the text "Deliveries Begin late 2014" is no longer there (I think it's mentioned earlier in this thread) and was removed a while ago I think.

 

[AnOutsider]

No I think he was just reiterating the delay mentioned in the past... that or he is setting up for overdelivering on a promise by lowering expectations. If you notice the wording on the site very carefully it says NEW RESERVATIONS delivery in Summer 2015.... what about the existing. If there's 12k+ reservations, that means they are going to ship all of those + model S' in 6 months time... ?

I'd love to share your optimism, but experience with Tesla leads me to believe the delay is real. If we're not seeing a production prototype until Q4 (October at the earliest, but we know how Tesla estimates can be), I find it highly unlikely that actual models will roll off the line 2 months later. Possible, yes, but I doubt it.

On the plus side, I'd love to be wrong

 

[gjunky]

My local store told me at more than one occasion that they will have a Model X to show around November. Now I know that this is not always the most accurate information but perhaps an indication that they will have pre-production models to show (and hopefully drive at a Beta Event) in the middle of Q4. Apparently Phoenix is a big market for the X.

 

[Doug_G]

I don't understand the first half of this assertion. I think we have different memories of history. The latter I'll grant though.

Windows 95 was a quantum leap forwards, but was buggy as hell. It really was a beta test version of Windows 98, which mostly worked. (Take it from someone who launched a software product that ran on 95 - there were all kinds of bizarre bugs cooked in.) (Also for the record Vista was bad, but was a cakewalk compare to Windows ME, which I referred to as "Mangled Edition".)

Model S was also a huge quantum leap forward, and yes, a little buggy at first. The big difference was that it wasn't nearly as buggy as Windows 95 was, and unlike Microsoft they fixed pretty much everything (that a customer would notice anyway).

It really makes sense for Tesla to take their time and get Model X right. They have the luxury of the whole company not depending on the launch this time (they're busily selling Model S), and they can apply much of what they learned from the Model S and its rollout.