Paul Carter
Active Member
re: cancellation rate I would need more data to have enough data to extrapolate a new rate. That might come within the next month or so, or if Tesla gives another estimated number at a quarter or annual report even better.That's fair.
My educated guess : we've estimated 20 cancellations per month since december. That's less than 0.1% which I think is an underestimation given than overall cancellation percentages are two orders of magnitudes larger. Another data point is that US sig cancellations are likely up to 40% (1000->1400) This could hint that as reservations get older, they are much more likely to be cancelled (but the sig reservations are sufficiently different from regular ones that I agree drawing conclusions on one based on the other is suspect at best)
This seems to be a number Elon would like to be on top off? He's quick to take to twitter with sales/order updates after major events. Ie, only a day after the reveal he was telling us we got a bump. I think he gets a very regular update from his sales VP on these things.
Agree he is likely to be on top of the numbers, but we don't know for sure, so will wait for some better data. The signature cancellations rate was already factored in for up to Dec 31, 2014. I'm not using any of the higher signature sequence numbers since then in my stats as we know its just people filling those cancellation slots. So avoiding double counting those (albeit still a small numbers).