Keep in mind that the Europe and China numbers haven't been updated since November and the rest of Asia/Pacific since May. The number could easily be over 25,000 total now.
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Yes, I know. One i Norway that tries to sell his place on the reservation list spoke to Tesla and got information that more than 3,100 (3,084 in our tally) had reserved Model X in Europe and this information is a month old or so. About 25,000 reserved Model X is it that have reserved. Probably 10-30 percent have cancelled their reservation but no one except people working with the reservation list at Tesla Motors know exactly how many.
Elon thinks 15kish-20kish can be produced in 2015.
muleferg
Active Member
Back in December 2013 I ordered a Model X. They stated it would be out early 2014. I paid big money to get reservation in the 1200's. Then 2 weeks later they moved it back to early 2015. I changed to a Model S. and received in March 2014. I have enjoyed my S the last 10 month's. Wonder if they count my reservation. 
Back in December 2013 I ordered a Model X. They stated it would be out early 2014. I paid big money to get reservation in the 1200's. Then 2 weeks later they moved it back to early 2015. I changed to a Model S. and received in March 2014. I have enjoyed my S the last 10 month's. Wonder if they count my reservation.
It counts as a reservation and Tesla Motors knows you have cancelled it. No one else have got your reservation number even if it is cancelled. I first reserved a Model X General Production but a couple of months later heard that Model X would be delayed half a year. I then changed my reservation to a Signature instead. My reservation of General Production Model X is therefor cancelled but it still counted as a reservation.
Some people in Norway have canceled their reservation and ordered a D instead, AWD is on high demand, 34% of all new cars sold in Norway 2014 had 4wheel drive. , 48% was a diesel car, and 12.5% purre electric, 8% hybrid.
People had reserved the X for the AWD more than the type of car, and none new reservation numbers have been reported since the D event.
I guess 20-30% of Norwegian Model X reservation holders moved to Model S D version, quite a few have reported their change of mind on elbilforum.no
, 48% was a diesel car, and 12.5% purre electric, 8% hybrid. People had reserved the X for the AWD more than the type of car, and none new reservation numbers have been reported since the D event.
I guess 20-30% of Norwegian Model X reservation holders moved to Model S D version, quite a few have reported their change of mind on elbilforum.no
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Model X Tally as of January 31, 2015
Stats as of January 31, 2015
Stats by Region
Stats as of January 31, 2015
- 24,096 Global Total / 450 in the past month
- 15.0 per day
- USA: 15.0 per day
- 15.0 per day
- Lifetime Average to Date of 675 per month / 22.2 per day
Stats by Region
| Region | Tally on Jan 31 | Tally on Dec 31 | Tally on Nov 30 | Tally on Oct 31 | Jan Per Day | Dec Per Day | Nov Per Day | Oct Per Day | Lifetime Average Per Day | Lifetime Average Per Month | ||
| Canada | 973 | 973 | 916 | 916 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 27.3 | ||
| US | 16,994 | 16,544 | 16,188 | 15,696 | 15.0 | 11.9 | 16.4 | 23.3 | 15.6 | 476.0 | ||
| European | 3,672 | 3,672 | 3,587 | 3,529 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 102.8 | ||
| Asia Pacific | 2,454 | 2,454 | 2,454 | 2,365 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 68.7 | ||
| Global | 24,093 | 23,643 | 23,145 | 22,506 | 15.0 | 16.6 | 20.6 | 37.5 | 22.2 | 674.8 |
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How about 19,500 out of 23,643? That's 17.52% cancellations. However, that still doesn't account of double reservations (some people have both a signature and production slot). I wonder if they adjusted for that already, but how would they know that they didn't purposely reserved two!
How about 19,500 out of 23,643? That's 17.52% cancellations. However, that still doesn't account of double reservations (some people have both a signature and production slot). I wonder if they adjusted for that already, but how would they know that they didn't purposely reserved two!
Paul,
Do you have a estimate or guess how many people have double reservations? And a guess how many might only purchase one X.
How about 19,500 out of 23,643? That's 17.52% cancellations. However, that still doesn't account of double reservations (some people have both a signature and production slot). I wonder if they adjusted for that already, but how would they know that they didn't purposely reserved two!
You have to make two deposits (General Production + full Signature) if you do have both a Signature slot and a General Production slot under My Tesla. You in fact then have reserved two cars. If you upgrade the General Production to Signature, it's like you cancel the General Production, use the deposit from General Production and put more money in deposit toward a Signature. Tesla will probably not count the first reservation if you have upgraded to Signature (or downgraded to General Production).
My estimate of probably 10-30 percent cancellations was OK then. We still do not know exactly how many "almost 20,000 reservations" are and I do think a little bit more than 23,643 reservations including cancellations was made up to year end of 2014. Maybe 19,500 still active reservations out of total 23,900.
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Some talk of about 1,000. But I would guess half of that at most. So around 500. Really a thumb in the air. But see below my response to Svenssons.
Yes, I'm sure that near 20k excludes upgraded/downgraded too. Just trying to consider ones with the two reservations. I don't think they assumed they would cancel, but maybe at most 500. That's ~30% of signatures/production doubles (1,700 total assumed).
Also interestingly the signature tally seems over by 17.25% if we assume 1,700 global. So 17.52% to 18.4% (19,500/23,900) estimated cancellations range would seems fair.
I think if it was lower than 19,500 they might of said 19k.
Also from January 1, 2015 we might not want to factor the same cancellations rate. Those just getting reserving would be more likely to wait.
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Hopefully right after Bonnie!Some talk of about 1,000. But I would guess half of that at most. So around 500. Really a thumb in the air. But see below my response to Svenssons.
Yes, I'm sure that near 20k excludes upgraded/downgraded too. Just trying to consider ones with the two reservations. I don't think they assumed they would cancel, but maybe at most 500. That's ~30% of signatures/production doubles (1,700 total assumed).
Also interestingly the signature tally seems over by 17.25% if we assume 1,700 global. So 17.52% to 18.4% (19,500/23,900) estimated cancellations range would seems fair.
I think if it was lower than 19,500 they might of said 19k.
Also from January 1, 2015 we might not want to factor the same cancellations rate. Those just getting reserving would be more likely to wait.
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I'd certainly be interested in hearing your thoughts upon delivery. Hopefully that's before 2016
I, like many others here, want Tesla to take their time and get it as perfect as possible. So whenever they are ready is fine by me.I'd certainly be interested in hearing your thoughts upon delivery. Hopefully that's before 2016
Certainly loving the Model S in the meantime. To quote a wise woman, it certainly helps to have a Tesla while you wait.
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