Model X Tally

[Paul Carter]

Tesla Model X Tally Stats as of February 28, 2015

• 24,962 Global Total / 869 in the past month
  • 31.0 per day
    • USA: 12.3 per day
• Lifetime Average to Date of 682 per month / 22.4 per day

Stats by Region

Region	Tally on Feb 28​	Tally on Jan 31​	Tally on Dec 31​	Tally on Nov 30​	Tally on Oct 31​		Feb per Day	Jan Per Day	Dec Per Day	Nov Per Day	Oct Per Day		Lifetime Average Per Day	Lifetime Average Per Month
Canada	1,016	973	973	916	916		1.5	0.0	1.9	0.0	2.5		0.9	27.7
US	17,337	16,994	16,544	16,188	15,696		12.3	15.0	11.9	16.4	23.3		15.6	473.4
European	3,929	3,672	3,672	3,587	3,529		9.2	0.0	2.8	1.9	5.4		3.4	107.3
Asia Pacific	2,680	2,454	2,454	2,454	2,365		8.1	0.0	0.0	3.0	6.2		2.4	73.2
Global	24,962	24,093	23,643	23,145	22,506		31.0	15.0	16.6	20.6	37.5		22.4	681.6
Estimated Cancellations[SUP]1[/SUP]​	4,183	4,163	4,143	4,056	3,994
Estimated Totals[SUP]2[/SUP]	20,779	19,930	19,500	19,089	18,562

​

Footnotes:
1. Estimated 19,500 net reservations as of Dec 31, 2014 as per Q4 report of having "almost 20,000" on the books. Result:19,500 out of 23,643 = ~ 17.52% up to this date are likely cancelled.
2. Estimated Cancellations after December 31, 2014, currently estimated at 20/month.

Disclaimer:

• This collection of the numbers is gathered from posts by members on various threads and other forums. Please note: these aren't official numbers, and are to be taken with a grain of salt. Do not rely upon the total of production + signature numbers in any way as those who have upgraded from a production reservation to a signature reservation have been counted twice. Cancellations after December 31 are guesstimates.
• North America: Signatures assumed sold out as of March 26, 2014 and perhaps limited to 1,200.
  
• Europe: Signatures assumed sold out as of November 10, 2014 and perhaps limited to 500.

 

[Fanatic]

Got #3417.. Hoping to get the car in May next year

 

[robby]

All you folks with sequence numbers above 12692 will be getting your cars a bit quicker. We went for the 85D.

 

[llavalle]

I gave a deposit for a Model X last week.

It's a production vehicle, I'm from Canada. My Sequence Number is 227

Totally forgot to update this thread. I cancelled my Model X reservation in early January. Getting my 85D within the next 2 weeks.

 

[RDuke]

My Reservation # is #15118; looks like 2016 is going to be a good year for me!

 

[ModelS1079]

WELCOME

Actually already owning a MS85 since december 2013. Learned a lot on TMC, but have been a long time lurker around the forum...(maybe too long):redface:
Anyway, now *really* being part of the club as registered member feels much better!

As petrolhead; going Tesla is addictive! Few days ago finally decided to go MX .
got res #3404 since 02-03-15.

Congrats, Welcome to the TMC forum, treat it well and it will treat you very well.
As the new Model X Owners receive their cars, this forum is going to catapult to another new level.
I recall the days we recognized virtually every Avitar; those days are appropriately long gone.
We Are The EV Tide.

 

[heytae]

My reservation # is 16,201! (ordered today 3/9/15)

I wonder how high the reservation numbers will spike when the full Model X specs are released. Whee!

 

[Paul Carter]

My reservation # is 16,201! (ordered today 3/9/15)

I wonder how high the reservation numbers will spike when the full Model X specs are released. Whee!

Whee for sure!!! Congrats and welcome to TMC! Expecting insane surge on release!

 

[MaxK]

Paul,

Your February 2015 summary figures do not add up. Should the US be 17,337 rather than 16,994?

 

[Paul Carter]

Paul,

Your February 2015 summary figures do not add up. Should the US be 17,337 rather than 16,994?

Thanks - updated that thread and the wiki #2 thread too.

 

[Paul Carter]

Hello fellow tally watchers! Was thinking of evolving the monthly tally a bit.

Here's what I've come up with so far (as of March 18).

Version 6.1

Let me know what you think.

I think version 6.2 will have accurate predictions up to a quarter in advance. :tongue:

 

[dirkhh]

Instead of a full average (blue) it might be more interesting to have something like a 3 months (or 6 months) moving average. Because all we see in the blue line is flattening out and a tiny dip, but I think that underrepresents what has happened since the peak in late summer 14.

 

[Paul Carter]

Instead of a full average (blue) it might be more interesting to have something like a 3 months (or 6 months) moving average. Because all we see in the blue line is flattening out and a tiny dip, but I think that underrepresents what has happened since the peak in late summer 14.

That might be more interesting for sure. I'll try 6 months to smooth out the monthly spikes better.

 

[dirkhh]

That might be more interesting for sure. I'll try 6 months to smooth out the monthly spikes better.

Yeah, it's that balance - smooth out the spikes but still show the trend. You could try overlaying 3 and 6 and see what seems more appropriate.

 

[Paul Carter]

Yeah, it's that balance - smooth out the spikes but still show the trend. You could try overlaying 3 and 6 and see what seems more appropriate.

Tried 6, 3, and then 12. 12 seems to actually smooth it out. We have a lot of gaps/spikes in monthly numbers. So think this might work and does show the peak in Oct 2014.

 

[dirkhh]

Yeah, better. Thanks, Paul. I'm blocked from giving you more reputation right now. I'm sure others will make up for it.

 

[Paul Carter]

A few people have asked on what tool I used to do it, so I thought I share it. Note to the recent people giving me rep points, thanks for the very kind comments. One had just asked this question. I don't know your name (unless you add that in the comments I can't tell). Hope you see this!

Anyhow...

Its a basic MS Excel 2013 line chart with Style 6 or Style 9 to start (I think it was 9) and everything you see is built with standard functionality. A few custom colours for the data, axis, data labels, etc..

I do a lot of this in my line of work (and in lots of different tools). The only difference is most of my source data usually comes from files or databases. Then just a basic cropped screenshot to create the image.

Here is a basic one:

Turns into this after a few colour tweaks and standard formatting to get it to the desired result.

 

[bonnie]

You do the community a great service with this, Paul. Thanks!

 

[Paul Carter]

Tesla Model X Tally Statistics as of March 31, 2015

25,761 Global Tally Total / 21,558 Estimated Total (net of cancellations)[SUP][SUB]*[/SUB][/SUP]

March 2015	Rolling Averages	Lifetime Averages
799 (25.8 per day) Canada: 0.0 /day USA: 18.7 / day Euro: 4.9 / day Asia Pacific: 2.2 / day	3 Months: 706 / month 6 Months: 736 / month 12 Months: 1,038 / month	Monthly: 683.7 Weekly: 157.8 Daily: 22.5

Stats by Region

Region	Tally on Mar 31	Tally on Feb 28​	Tally on Jan 31​	Tally on Dec 31​	Tally on Nov 30​	Tally on Oct 31​		Mar per Day	Feb per Day	Jan Per Day	Dec Per Day	Nov Per Day	Oct Per Day		Lifetime Average Per Day	Lifetime Average Per Month
Canada	1,016	1,016	973	973	916	916		0.0	1.5	0.0	1.9	0.0	2.5		0.9	27.0
US	17,916	17,337	16,994	16,544	16,188	15,696		18.7	12.3	15.0	11.9	16.4	23.3		15.6	475.5
European	4,080	3,929	3,672	3,672	3,587	3,529		4.9	9.2	0.0	2.8	1.9	5.4		3.6	108.3
Asia Pacific	2,749	2,680	2,454	2,454	2,454	2,365		2.2	8.1	0.0	0.0	3.0	6.2		2.2	73.0
Global	25,761	24,962	24,093	23,643	23,145	22,506		25.8	31.0	15.0	16.6	20.6	37.5		22.5	683.7
Estimated Cancellations[SUP]1[/SUP]​	4,203	4,183	4,163	4,143	4,056	3,994
Estimated Totals[SUP]2[/SUP]	21,558	20,779	19,930	19,500	19,089	18,562

* Disclaimers:

• This collection of the numbers is gathered from posts by members on various threads and other forums. Please note: these aren't official numbers, and are to be taken with a grain of salt. Do not rely upon the total of production + signature numbers in any way as those who have upgraded from a production reservation to a signature reservation have been counted twice. Cancellations after December 31 are guesstimates.
• North America: Signatures assumed sold out as of March 26, 2014 and perhaps limited to 1,200.
  
• Europe: Signatures assumed sold out as of November 10, 2014 and perhaps limited to 500.

Footnotes:
1. Estimated 19,500 net reservations as of Dec 31, 2014 as per Q4 report of having "almost 20,000" on the books. Result:19,500 out of 23,643 = ~ 17.52% up to this date are likely cancelled.
2. Estimated Cancellations after December 31, 2014, currently estimated at 20/month.

 

[airj1012]

Great chart! Love the cancellation predictions too.

I think it would be cool to start estimating the production roll out / ramp up too. Obviously we won't know the date they're start to get released it but would be cool if we have a model to show when we thought certain reservation numbers would be reached. Ie, and these are terrible examples, 0-500 - Month 1, 501-2000 - Month 2, 2001-5000 - Month 3. Would give people a ball park of when they expect to get delivery based on the actual begin of deliveries.