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Model S vs BMW 5 Series

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I'm not sure I agree with this.

I think TMC would run out of prospects due to the current price of the car rather than running out of folks who want a (feasible) electric car...(outside of gearheads and those whose livelyhood depend on ICE vehicles of course...)
TMC is our forum, so we're surely not going to sell anybody a car!:wink:

If you look at the sale volumes for MB, BMW, and Audi, it's clear that the global market for $50k+ cars exceeds 1 million vehicles/year. So Tesla Motors is not at risk for running out of people who are willing to plunk down enough money to buy a Model S; the question is whether the Model S can compete head-to-head with other premium sedans (rather than competing for market share in the EV space).
 
My distinction: If the rear window opens with the trunk lid, it's a hatchback (or station wagon, SUV etc, many possibilities here). If the window stay in place, it's a sedan.
That's exactly the technical difference between hatchback and sedan. However, some hatchbacks look exactly the same as a sedan, so they blur the line (the Model S is an example, another good one is the Mazda 6 hatchback that is identical to the sedan in looks).

But that's off topic. The X5 isn't in the same class as the Model S simply because it's an SUV. The roof is flat/long and rear window is vertical (like most SUVs), so it's easier to make the panoramic roof open wider.

The Model S on the other hand is a "sedan-like" hatchback, with a sloped roof and a horizontal rear window. The roof is going to be more similar to the one you find the Mustang or MKZ glass roof.
 
Yes, that is a large market Robert, but is it as large as the world-wide market for all of those folks who would buy a feasible electric car?

I do agree TMC is not at risk of running out of prospects...


TMC is our forum, so we're surely not going to sell anybody a car!:wink:

If you look at the sale volumes for MB, BMW, and Audi, it's clear that the global market for $50k+ cars exceeds 1 million vehicles/year. So Tesla Motors is not at risk for running out of people who are willing to plunk down enough money to buy a Model S; the question is whether the Model S can compete head-to-head with other premium sedans (rather than competing for market share in the EV space).
 
I think there is zero risk that the existence of next-gen EV cars in 3-5 years will impact the resale value of cars like the BMW M5 or MB E63.

Depending on how the gas price develops, it may very well have an effect on the 5 year value. Especially if people change their minds about the impact of oil dependence, which many still don't take serious. At some point, things may change quickly.

We will know in 9 months whether they will stumble out of the gate, but we won't know for 2-3 years whether they are on a long term path to viability.

We don't really know that for any car company. The 2008 crisis (with sudden high gas prices) caught the largest and oldest manufacturers cold.
 
Depending on how the gas price develops, it may very well have an effect on the 5 year value. Especially if people change their minds about the impact of oil dependence, which many still don't take serious. At some point, things may change quickly.
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I think gas prices could have an impact via making the Model S resale value slightly higher, but no one is paying attention to the gas milage of the M5. Honestly, I think few early adopters of the Model S Sig Perf worry much about the price of kWh's either.

Even if Tesla and GM/Volt ran at full tilt for the next 3-5 years, the inventory of used EVs would be an insignificant rounding error in terms of impact on resale value of ICE cars.
 
I would gladly take the bet that the absolute delta in terms of utility/features between a 2013 Model S and a 2018 Model S (assuming company existed) will be a TON bigger than the delta between a 2013 M5 and 2018 M5. There are simply fewer engineering dials to turn and the pace of change in the underlying tech ecosystem is slower. And this assume constant price. I think the Model S in 5 years will be 20% cheaper (while still being better).

Again, the Model S seems awesome. I an NOT knocking it. I just think you guys are "spending" more than you may realize--- which is also fine.

Why? The only technology that I see developing that will affect a Model S vs. a future Model S vs. an M5 is battery technology. I don't see major improvements coming in way of electric motors, regen braking, etc. And the rest of the Model S is "car stuff" that any manufacturer can apply to their car.

Assuming battery density improves at 7% per year, in 5 years, you should be able to buy an 85Kwh battery for the price of a 60Kwh battery today. So yes, people lining up today are paying $10K (+ future value of money etc etc etc) more. Plus whatever typical improvements get driven into cars in general.

That $10K is one of the prices of being an early adopter. However, if the current Model S meets your needs and you can afford to buy it, well, that sounds like a personal decision to me. How do you like to spend your money.

For me, that extra $10K means I get EV instant-acceleration and quiet now (well, in the spring) instead of in 5 years.
 
Why? The only technology that I see developing that will affect a Model S vs. a future Model S vs. an M5 is battery technology. I don't see major improvements coming in way of electric motors, regen braking, etc. And the rest of the Model S is "car stuff" that any manufacturer can apply to their car.

Assuming battery density improves at 7% per year, in 5 years, you should be able to buy an 85Kwh battery for the price of a 60Kwh battery today. So yes, people lining up today are paying $10K (+ future value of money etc etc etc) more. Plus whatever typical improvements get driven into cars in general.

That $10K is one of the prices of being an early adopter. However, if the current Model S meets your needs and you can afford to buy it, well, that sounds like a personal decision to me. How do you like to spend your money.

For me, that extra $10K means I get EV instant-acceleration and quiet now (well, in the spring) instead of in 5 years.

Like I said in a previous post, I don't think the consumer will necessarily see all of those savings in 5 years. Elon's new options package specifies 30% gross margins as one of the goals. There is a real floor to the price of the Model S that is a result of how much it currently costs to purchase a luxury vehicle.

At $70,000 the MS85 is already nearly price competitive with the 550i GT ($65k base cost) which is the closest ICE analogue in terms of performance and features. That is leaving aside the huge savings in operating costs you get with Model S.

In the not too distant future, Tesla will no longer qualify for the $7,500 rebate and I expect that Tesla will be in a position to lower the MSRP to match the current price point thanks to savings on the battery. But it's not obvious to me that they will lower the price much more than that.

The 550i GT falls short of the MS85 in many important respects (again, even leaving aside operation costs). I think it's in Tesla's interest to position themselves as a premium product and gratuitously undercutting your competitors prices while offering a better product doesn't make much business sense unless you are having problems with demand. If your competitor under those circumstances is selling an inferior product, it makes more sense to invest in more marketing rather than lowering your prices.