Model 3 Supercharging Capable Discussion

[stopcrazypp]

I thought Tesla was making money for the SC's through the sales ( SC option) of the MS or MX. Is there a thought that funding SC's will start to come from energy sales?

The SC had not been an option for a while now (and it was only an option for the S60 anyways), so that is definitely not how they are funding the SCs.

The installation of the network is paid for by a split of advertising and cost of sales. The ongoing cost are paid for by deferred revenue (basically it is another cut out of the margin). The deferred revenue was set at $500 per vehicle when calculated from SEC filings that Tesla reported (no longer reported in more recent filings).
[Rant] locals clogging the Highland Park, IL supercharger

I don't have any data to support this...but I can imagine that there are a whole lot of Tesla MS/X owners who have purchased the SC option that have never ever used it. That's free money for Tesla. If Tesla goes exclusively with pay-per-use - they can kiss the free money goodbye.

See above. Keep in mind that regardless of whether you paid for the option separately (which officially paid for the hardware/software only and not for usage), every Tesla sold paid for the SC network. Tesla will set aside money from their advertising/cost of sales to pay for network expansion regardless.

What pay-per-use allows is that it insulates Tesla from supercharger usage trends in terms of how much deferred revenue they set aside for ongoing costs. If they use the wrong assumptions with an unlimited model, they lose money on it (which they can't recover given they can't go back and change the sale price of the car and collect money from previous owners). I think so far Tesla has lost money on the supercharger network based on the model they designed (they failed to set a usage model that accounts for people using them for local travel, so underestimated the lifetime costs of supporting an "unlimited" plan). That's why they are making this change.

 

[jkk_]

If the M3 SC option is the same as the M6 SC option. I will continue to SC as I currently am. There is a SC in my area that I've never seen anyone buy myself use. I'm going to keep SC'ing.

I travel 49 miles each way to work. Depending on the route I take....it could result in over a 100 mile trip.

Now - (not that I really care what anyone else things, but for the sake of conversation). Is my 100+mile a day trip to work local?

I wouldn't consider 50 miles one way local. And I don't think what you are doing is any way wrong or should be punished. Maybe wasteful of your own time but as long as you are not taking the last spot from someone in dire need, why shouldn't you use it? Heck, if it's that inactive it's good you are using it and let Tesla know if there's something know with the equipment.

Let's see how many dislikes I managed to gather

 

[dsvick]

The existence of the source code at least points to a PPU model of some kind. But they need to get the pricing right, or Big Oil will jump all over it.

Remember, this car (the Model 3) is for the MASS MARKET, so the cost to operate has to be at least equal to ICE ownership, or less.

Not everyone in a 3 will have the income levels of S/X owners.

And if you want mass adoption of something, you have to make it economically viable to the largest amount of potential consumers as you can.

I agree, I was just answering Garlan's post about there not being an option to get the "free for life".

Sooooo. In a nutshell - everything is BAU? After all of this rig-a-ma-roll - the M≡ SC option will probably be purchased the same way as the MS and MX. wow.

This horse has been beaten a billion times.

What's BAU? I'm thinking there will be both a one time option for "free for life" (either a separate option or as part of a package) as well as a prepaid method for SC access.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I wouldn't consider 50 miles one way local. And I don't think what you are doing is any way wrong or should be punished. Maybe wasteful of your own time but as long as you are not taking the last spot from someone in dire need, why shouldn't you use it? Heck, if it's that inactive it's good you are using it and let Tesla know if there's something know with the equipment.

Let's see how many dislikes I managed to gather

Of course - you will get a like from me. LOL

 

[Garlan Garner]

I agree, I was just answering Garlan's post about there not being an option to get the "free for life".


What's BAU? I'm thinking there will be both a one time option for "free for life" (either a separate option or as part of a package) as well as a prepaid method for SC access.

BAU = Business As Usual.

 

[Red Sage]

I like the possibility for pre-paid / pay as you go supercharging as an option in addition to free for life supercharging. Depending on the lifetime option costs I might still opt for that but I rarely go on road trips so it would be more of a backup plan. If I'd opt for prepaid kWh I'd probably break even with a prepaid option after 20 or more years... Not sure that would be worth it and if both options are available I could still go for the aftermarket lifetime option anyways.
If prepaid is available it would be cool if every Model 3 came with a free amount of Supercharger kWh to let new owners experience the convenience for free at the beginning.

This is why I point out so often, even to those who believe they won't go on road trips very often, to think in terms of how much money they would spend on gasoline for those trips over the length of ownership. If that amount ends up being lower than $2,000 or $1,000 or $500 or $400...? Then the 'FREE for LIFE!' plan is certainly not for you.

 

[Red Sage]

Here is the way I look at it. I am a huge proponent of packages but at the same time if they are figuring the cost of lifetime supercharger is $1200 (my guess) and they increase the large battery cost by that much for lifetime supercharger access I would prefer to just have them discount the large battery or whatever they are going to attach the free lifetime charging too.

If you are one that likes the idea of lifetime charging you can pay the $1200 or $2000 (whatever they want to charge) because they discounted the large battery by that much and you only pay the profit increase. So instead of the large battery being 10k more if it is 9k more without supercharger than to me that is the way I would rather go.

Then I can buy $200 worth of credits at the beginning. I honestly think I might use the super chargers for long trips maybe every other year and occasionally when I need to run to my in-laws by myself (we usually take my wife's Odyssey). I think that $200 worth of credits would last me maybe a couple years.

I do hope they have the complete pricing available when we order. I hope the costs of supercharging with credits (if that is an option) is fully spelled out before I buy the car. I do have to take the risk that the credits will increase over time but hopefully I'll be ahead compared to the price of the option PLUS interest.

I do not believe there will be any 'discounts' to be had. You'll get what you pay for, and pay for what you get. Offering a discount system is like admitting that you overcharged to begin with.

 

[dsvick]

I do not believe there will be any 'discounts' to be had. You'll get what you pay for, and pay for what you get. Offering a discount system is like admitting that you overcharged to begin with.

He wasn't saying discount, well ok, yes he did say discount, but what he meant was that he'd rather be able to buy just a larger battery wihtout the price of SC added to it.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

He wasn't saying discount, well ok, yes he did say discount, but what he meant was that he'd rather be able to buy just a larger battery wihtout the price of SC added to it.

I think in this scenario, we're looking for the word "decoupled"....as in the price of supercharging being decoupled (and offered as an a la carte option) from the price of the bigger battery pack.

It's not really a discount, you're just not being forced to buy someone's "bundle"

 

[Red Sage]

He wasn't saying discount, well ok, yes he did say discount, but what he meant was that he'd rather be able to buy just a larger battery wihtout the price of SC added to it.

He isn't the only one to hope for such an option. They are typically joined by those who would want to have the 100 kWh battery pack without the 'P' for Performance. Then they are joined further by guys who want rear wheel drive and want the 100 kWh battery pack without the 'D' for dual motors. And then, as if it isn't enough already, someone else will want to cut the horsepower of the rear motor to 50% or 33% supposedly to 'get more miles'. Basically, they would like to have a severely tamed and bone cheap gutted neutered/spayed version of Tesla Motors products. And I can happily proclaim they will NEVER get them.

 

[Red Sage]

I think in this scenario, we're looking for the word "decoupled"....as in the price of supercharging being decoupled (and offered as an a la carte option) from the price of the bigger battery pack.

It's not really a discount, you're just not being forced to buy someone's "bundle"

I think that the recent addition of the Tesla Model S P100D is a perfect example of what I'd like to see from now on. Just one big dog battery capacity available only on the Performance Dual Motor version of the car. It is basically what I predict for the Model ☰ as well (55, 55D, 75, 75D, P100D). Chances are though that a bunch of people will whine and complain and swear and bitch and moan and demand that Tesla Motors offer a version without the 'P' for Performance (or Insane, or Ludicrous) for ten grand less. I sincerely hope they don't give in to such demands, but they probably will.

 

[Troy]

My best guess is Tesla is not going to wait until Model 3 to make changes to supercharging. They will make the changes this year. This will give them enough time to sort out problems before the Model 3 launch. It would be better for Tesla if they replaced the free for life option with 2 and 4 year packages, in addition to the pay per kWh option.

 

[Red Sage]

My best guess is Tesla is not going to wait until Model 3 to make changes to supercharging. They will make the changes this year. This will give them enough time to sort out problems before the Model 3 launch. It would be better for Tesla if they replaced the free for life option with 2 and 4 year packages, in addition to the pay per kWh option.

I was ~*this*~ close to clicking the LIKE icon, then I saw that last sentence.

 

[ohmman]

I was ~*this*~ close to clicking the LIKE icon, then I saw that last sentence.

Oh, come on! You'd love it. Don't you think this has a nice ring to it?

"FREE (of additional fees) for 2 YEARS (2 years of the car)!"

 

[FlatSix911]

Looks like this is where we're heading at least for the Model 3 (and possible future Models S/X customers who have not already been promised "Free for the life of the car" by Tesla) and I think it's a really good thing.
Tesla Model 3 'Supercharger Credits' discovered on 'MyTesla' page

Tesla Model 3 ‘Supercharger Credits’ discovered on ‘MyTesla’ page
Musk suggested that Supercharger access won’t be free for owners of its mass market sedan.

We’d have to preface this story by saying that the reveal does require some knowledge of HTML. Browsing to the ‘MyTesla’ page, made only available to existing Tesla owners and reservation holders, Model 3 depositors will see a new section called ‘Payment Method’ that has a Tesla-red ‘ADD CREDIT CARD’ button beside it. ‘Inspecting’ this section of HTML via ones browser will reveal a section of code referencing ‘Supercharger Credits’ which is commented-out. Commented code is generally a placeholder put in by developers for what’s to come, though they’re not ready to present it yet.



Uncommenting this code will reveal a new section titled ‘Supercharger Credits’ that’s directly beneath the add credit card button. One would presume that future Model 3 drivers will be given the option to purchase the amount of energy that can be drawn from its Supercharger network.

Though we have heard Tesla’s plans of offering Supercharging as an optional ‘package’ on the Model 3, this reveal may provide further insight on the company’s plans to alleviate Supercharger congestion by adopting a pay-per-use payment plan commonly found on other charging networks.

Yes, there are a lot of people who have reserved Model 3's, who cannot likely afford to go too far beyond the $35,000 base price, who live in the city, and do not have a home charging solution. Many have figured they would just use the Supercharging network for free. There may be a lot of that group who now opt for another vehicle instead.

The truth hurts ... and it will set you free

 

[cronosx]

I wouldn't consider 50 miles one way local. And I don't think what you are doing is any way wrong or should be punished. Maybe wasteful of your own time but as long as you are not taking the last spot from someone in dire need, why shouldn't you use it? Heck, if it's that inactive it's good you are using it and let Tesla know if there's something know with the equipment.

Let's see how many dislikes I managed to gather

I'm on your field, but as said, this isn't the case when you NEED to use the supercharger for "long travel", you are using it since it's a comodity and it's free and it's directly on your path, i'm sure if it was not free and it needed a detour you wouldn't even consider doing it since it will waste so much of you time, so this will not apply to what we were talking about

I'm just a little stunned of you "50 miles one way trip" every day, but it's just me, in italy if you really need to do such trip every day you end up using trains or similar, not car since usually it's used to go in a very dense populated area, it's rare that you end up in a working location so much distant from you home.. but i'm disgressing, it's jsut.. foreign to me

 

[jkk_]

I think that the recent addition of the Tesla Model S P100D is a perfect example of what I'd like to see from now on. Just one big dog battery capacity available only on the Performance Dual Motor version of the car. It is basically what I predict for the Model ☰ as well (55, 55D, 75, 75D, P100D). Chances are though that a bunch of people will whine and complain and swear and bitch and moan and demand that Tesla Motors offer a version without the 'P' for Performance (or Insane, or Ludicrous) for ten grand less. I sincerely hope they don't give in to such demands, but they probably will.

Though, wasn't it mentioned that they would eventually sell 100D also, they are just prioritizing P100D for now since it's supply constrained?

 

[wdolson]

As the range of the cars increase - so does SC's issues.

In the last 4 years - battery capacity has almost increased 4 fold and the price of the batteries have almost been reduced by 7. This leads me to believe that if battery technology continues down this road that you will be able to get your 1200 miles per charge. As of right now....there is a university somewhere that is stating that they can double the energy density and capacity of the 21700 through a change in the chemical makeup of the cell. They also indicated that this chemical makeup is immune to degrading capacity due to cold weather.

How has the capacity increase 4X in 4 years. If that was the case, the original Model S would have been 85KWh and today we would have 340 KWh Model S/X. The price has not come down anywhere near a factor of 7. The price of Li-ion battery packs has declined from about $700/KWh in 2010 to about $400/KWh in 2014 (industry average. Tesla's line has been flatter:
Electric vehicles, battery technology and renewable energy: Research roundup - Journalist's Resource

Tesla's price has declined form around $350 to $300/KWh.

There are also lots of claims for new battery tech that don't pan out. Over the last couple of months I've seen some articles on some claims of doubled capacity, but it's better to wait and see what happens. Somebody may have developed a doubled capacity battery, but it will never see production because the tech has some critical flaw like it fails after 10 charge cycles, or it may be very unstable and prone to catching fire, or it may be impossible to manufacture economically. There are many reasons something that works initially in the lab never sees production.

 

[wdolson]

Though, wasn't it mentioned that they would eventually sell 100D also, they are just prioritizing P100D for now since it's supply constrained?

They have sold 2-3 times more 90Ds than P90Ds. It's a market niche they aren't going to ghettoize for long.

I think it's possible they may leapfrog past 100D for the non-performance big pack car and go to something like 110D when the new packs from the Gigafactory become available. They released the P100D now both because they were seeing the Osborne Effect happening with the P90D sales, and they needed to boost them. Now that the P100D is out there they may see something similar to what happened when the dual motor and Ludicrous mode were announced. People who are performance fanatics with essentially unlimited wealth will upgrade again and put some more money in Tesla's pockets.

The 90D has had the cache of being the longest range BEV in production and Tesla will want to push that car over 300 miles range as soon as they can. The 100 KWh packs are more complex than the 90 packs and more expensive, but they also plan to start production of the 20700 cells at the GF within weeks. By January they may be ready to start making cars with the new cells and with the expected space savings from the 20700 cells, they should be able to boost the initial packs from the GF 10-15% over the 100 pack and the cost will probably be less than the current 90 packs.

 

[diamond.g]

The existence of the source code at least points to a PPU model of some kind. But they need to get the pricing right, or Big Oil will jump all over it.

Remember, this car (the Model 3) is for the MASS MARKET, so the cost to operate has to be at least equal to ICE ownership, or less.

Not everyone in a 3 will have the income levels of S/X owners.

And if you want mass adoption of something, you have to make it economically viable to the largest amount of potential consumers as you can.

Prius TCO or BMW TCO.
I think if folks are looking for Prius TCO they may want to get a Chevy Bolt...