Model 3 reservations -- How does Tesla handle reservations?

[ChadS]

Get an invite somehow to the Model 3 reveal event next March and don't bother to look at the reveal itself; queue up where they'll take reservations right after the reveal.

This was @bonnie's MO for the X.

Yeah, that was funny. I had just met Bonnie at that event IRL, and a few of us were hanging around (and hanging, and hanging, as the event started late as usual) and the Model X came out, and everybody oohed and aahed, and Musk got out to talk about it, and I went to lean over to point out something Bonnie would think significant...but she was gone. Poof. When I saw her later, boy did she have a big grin.

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Every MS owner should get a preferred spot. WE made this happen, so we should get the option lest say for 48 hours or so to reserve first.

When the S came out, Roadster owners (as of a certain date) that made a Signature reservation got put to the front of the Signature queue no matter when they made the reservation (I didn't confirm mine until the last possible moment - July 31 2012, I think it was - but I got Sig #112 in Sept 2012). We also got a discount!

Of course, this only applied if we bought a Signature edition Model S (which was overpriced, though not by as much as the discount). And Tesla's situation is quite different now; I don't expect them to do the same thing. They no longer need customers they trust to go through with their cash-only purchase to go first (or even to just fill out the Sig quota). They no longer need existing customers to take a risk on a car that hadn't been reviewed and most expected to be kinda sucky. While I've talked to many, many Model S owners, I've talked to a LOT more people that are excited to become Tesla owners when the Model S is available.

It would be very nice for Tesla to do something for existing owners, and I hope they do something. But I expect it to be pretty small. Letting existing owners have first crack in some way still might be a good idea - and perhaps the method you suggest is a good one, though people on vacation and such will complain - but in any event, I will bet there is no discount this time!

 

[EVNow]

Every MS owner should get a preferred spot. WE made this happen, so we should get the option lest say for 48 hours or so to reserve first.

Only problem is the may be only the earliest people who reserve will get the $7.5k credit. Arguably the people who need it most are the ones who don't have an S.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Only problem is the may be only the earliest people who reserve will get the $7.5k credit. Arguably the people who need it most are the ones who don't have an S.

Agree. I'd rather Tesla open the floodgates to everyone at once. There's so much pent up demand for the 3 from folks without a Tesla thus far.

 

[ratsbew]

Serious question: Do we think there is actually this much demand, or are we all living in our own little dream where we imagine that 250,000 people are willing to put money down to reserve a Model 3?

 

[ryanjm]

Every MS owner should get a preferred spot. WE made this happen, so we should get the option lest say for 48 hours or so to reserve first.

Respectfully, I strongly disagree. You can afford a Model S. Many of us, including myself, cannot, and have already been saving for years to be able to get a Model 3 as soon as it arrives. It would be a real shame to have to stand in line behind potentially tens of thousands of Model S owners just because they could afford a Tesla sooner than I could. You already got your Tesla first. That's your reward. Enjoy it! Give the rest of us plebes a turn. :wink:

As has been noted elsewhere in the thread, the Roadster --> Model S situation was far, FAR different than the S/X --> 3 progression.

 

[the dude]

Serious question: Do we think there is actually this much demand, or are we all living in our own little dream where we imagine that 250,000 people are willing to put money down to reserve a Model 3?

there is huge demand, most people who want a model S can't afford one, so they will all go for the model 3

 

[Cosmacelf]

Serious question: Do we think there is actually this much demand, or are we all living in our own little dream where we imagine that 250,000 people are willing to put money down to reserve a Model 3?

Yes. I live in an affluent area, and even so, there is a limited number of people who are willing to buy a Model S. But I get asked weekly by different people when will the affordable Tesla go on sale? I strongly believe there will be significant pent up demand. It would be a good time to be an electrician around then...

 

[mwulff]

As a Model S owner I am seriously considering "down-grading" to a top of the line Model 3 with all the toys. Just because it's more suited to my wife and I size-wise. But I can wait untill I've had a testdrive and can see the car in "the flesh".

 

[EvilNuff]

Serious question: Do we think there is actually this much demand, or are we all living in our own little dream where we imagine that 250,000 people are willing to put money down to reserve a Model 3?

I wonder this as well. If the demand really is there, then it is entirely possible that there are years of demand backlogged. If there really is a large backlog and that translates to reservations and orders it is conceivable that shortly after reservations open capacity is taken for a couple years of production.

 

[mwulff]

I wonder this as well. If the demand really is there, then it is entirely possible that there are years of demand backlogged. If there really is a large backlog and that translates to reservations and orders it is conceivable that shortly after reservations open capacity is taken for a couple years of production.

I believe demand is more than back logged. Every middle class couple that we know are lining up to buy this car. Assuming tesla gets the design, range, price and super charger access right they will sell like hot cakes. Everyone who has had a ride our S85 has asked when the cheaper model can be ordered/reserved.

The only thing hindering widespread adoption in the our country's middle class is price and partially size. It's a bit on the big side.

 

[EVNow]

Serious question: Do we think there is actually this much demand, or are we all living in our own little dream where we imagine that 250,000 people are willing to put money down to reserve a Model 3?

It is difficult to tell.

In last presidential election a "respected" WSJ journalist said Romney will win because when she went to a Florida suburb she only saw Romney signs. If we go further back - some prominent person was quoted as saying, no way Nixon could win because everyone she knew was voting for George McGovern.

Moral of the story is - anecdotal evidence is not good enough to predict this kind of stuff. It is likely there will be a loyal informed set who will book early in a frenzy. Some others will book at leisure. But majority of future buyers will wait to see the car.

 

[EVNow]

Here is some more "anecdotal" information.

In 2013 December I ran a poll in MNL on this. Current Nissan Leaf owners should be very interested in Model 3 - since for about the same price they paid for a Leaf, they'd be getting a much better EV.

Result was 49% would reserve and 25% may reserve.

Poll:If you can reserve Gen 3 Tesla for $5k now, would you ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum

Recently I asked, would you buy a 2016 Leaf, Leaf gen2, Bolt or Model 3.

Do you plan to buy/lease 30kWh MY16 Leaf ? - My Nissan Leaf Forum

23% would get 2016 Leaf.
30% would wait for Leaf Gen 2.
2% would wait for Chevy Bolt.
29% would wait for Model 3.
16% would not get another EV in the next 5 years.

 

[SmartElectric]

There will be more than 500,000 EV owners by the time Model 3 is available, every single one of them will consider the 3, perhaps 25% will reserve, another 25% will wait and then buy later. That is 250,000 from the existing pool of EV owners, now just imagine the dozens of people I've talked to in just two weeks of ownership who are waiting for the Tesla 3 before they try out an EV...Tesla may need to partner with a big web store to sell reservation slots, as their website won't be staying up unless they invest a lot in their infrastructure...

 

[djplong]

According to the Census Bureau, there are just under 70 million single family homes in the US. To me, that's the limiting factor - you need a place to charge overnight. If you live in an apartment, you're lucky to have a garage. In a condo association, maybe you have a prayer as EVs get more popular.

So, depending on how well the word gets out, there could be a LOT more than 500K waiting..

 

[spottyq]

An other factor to consider is that those who could not afford a MS and are waiting for the M3 probably have bought/leased an other car in the interim, and they maybe won't be able to justify to keep an extra car or will have to sell/finish their leasing contract with the one they actually have.

That would mean that the reservations from those who are waiting for the M3 will be spread over a relatively large period instead of all coming a the launch date.

 

[EVNow]

An other factor to consider is that those who could not afford a MS and are waiting for the M3 probably have bought/leased an other car in the interim, and they maybe won't be able to justify to keep an extra car or will have to sell/finish their leasing contract with the one they actually have.

That would mean that the reservations from those who are waiting for the M3 will be spread over a relatively large period instead of all coming a the launch date.

Or (as in my case) I'll book ASAP - and when it comes time to actually order I'll figure out if and when to do so. I booked S - when the 40 kWh model didn't have supercharging, moved it over to X. I'll probably move over the X to 3, since X is too large to fit in our garage.

Meanwhile, I'll pickup my third Leaf on lease when the 30 kWh version comes out in a month or two. That should come out of lease in Aug/Sep '17. But I can extend that lease upto one year - hopefully 3 comes out and I can get one before Aug/Sep '18.

 

[fword101]

So how does this usually work, does Tesla open up the reservation website before or after the announcement of a new model?
And will the reservation deposit be announced beforehand?

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

So how does this usually work, does Tesla open up the reservation website before or after the announcement of a new model?
And will the reservation deposit be announced beforehand?

The pattern so far has been consistent for the S and the X:

1) a reveal event is held for the prototype with a select audience (the parameters for which have varied over time for various Tesla events).

S - March 26, 2009
X - February 9, 2012
3 - March 2016 ?!

2) Tesla accepts reservations at the event itself. The deposits for Signature ($40k) and General Production ($5k) lines are made known at the event.

3) Website opens up for reservations the day after the event.

 

[stephenpace]

I still think Roadster and Model S Sig owners should be able to reserve first if they want to (just one car, though). I agree that reservation demand will be very high, but my bet is 40k by the end of the first week assuming they require $1k - $2500 to reserve. We'll probably have 4 in my extended family alone. If it is PowerWall style no-money-down, though, the sky is the limit.

 

[Lonnie123]

This thread is making me want to buy so much more TSLA.

I'll see you all in the reservations in 2018