Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[pfosse]

Can someone point me to the pictures or video of how to check my VIN? I'm not sure I'm doing it correctly.

 

[GaryW]

@mrkymarc,

Try this:
Tesla Model 3 Invites - VIN Reports

On another note, the Tesla gods were kind enough to grant me my VIN today. My case is special as I am the first 19" Sport and the first silver metallic they have granted in a long time.

I am a little ambivalent about being so close to the AWD. But if I change now, I will be back in line behind all those previous deferrals. So I am happy with my VIN for now. My AWD Tesla will have to wait for model Y.

CJ

I think you are about getting back in line. We’re thinking end of year would be the earliest for us.

 

[chojn1]

I think you are about getting back in line. We’re thinking end of year would be the earliest for us.

Which means the AWD/P will cost an additional $7500 for me.
I'll have to be happy with my special first production model.

 

[bgbolton]

I have doubt with this back of line meme. If the configuration opens to all at once it likely is by order date. I guess we discover this week.

Second Tesla prefers to build expensive first. Likely we will see AWD quickly take priority and this queue will shorten fast especially as quarter draws to end for $$$

 

[agastya]

HI @agastya,
The 'Latest VIN' page have always been broken down by color. Maybe what you really want to see is this:

Tesla Model 3 Invites - VIN Graphs

View attachment 300800

Firstly, thank you for all that you do. I did look at this sheet - this is VIN broken down by date, then color as the second level of granularity.

I was trying to look at it from a different way - all VINs for a specific color, what the ranges are that are being assigned, what states they are going to and such. Something like this

Maybe I was missing it on the webpage, can you please point me to where I could pull down the whole spreadsheet?

 

[bgbolton]

@chojn1 want a fun graph to make?

Make a sankey. For each day make 3 nodes: configured, VIN, delivered. Make links for every entry. Thickness of link based on total waiting time but scaled down over time. Give current day another node "waiting"

Bonus: give each link a label or icon showing color/wheel selection.

 

[Khan3]

None of the spreadsheets or webpages is opening?? what gives ??

 

[chojn1]

None of the spreadsheets or webpages is opening?? what gives ??

Maybe it's your computer.
Try this:

Tesla Model 3 Invites - All Entries

 

[chojn1]

@chojn1 want a fun graph to make?

Make a sankey. For each day make 3 nodes: configured, VIN, delivered. Make links for every entry. Thickness of link based on total waiting time but scaled down over time. Give current day another node "waiting"

Bonus: give each link a label or icon showing color/wheel selection.

That would be a nice challenge.
I am not quite sure I can make a live constantly updating version of that though.

 

[Khan3]

thanks @chojn1 it was my computer. works now from a different computer

 

[RenMan68]

I averaged the config -> VIN elapsed time for the last 100 reported VINs and it's 32.5 days. Today is day 33 for me. It's statistically more likely for me to get a VIN than not on a given day, right? I mean, it's a hair over 50% now, right? Anticipation is killing me...

 

[Thang55]

Reserved 3/31/2016 @ 2pm at Santana Row store
Got invite on 4/10/2018
Configured on 4/23/2018
Deep Blue Metallic
19” Sports Wheels


It is interesting to note that someone configured their M3 with same color and sports wheels a day after mine and already got a VIN while I am still waiting for it. Thought that the Bay Area reserve holder ( 10 miles from Fremont factory) has high priority, but it wasn’t the case. Maybe Tesla gives priority to full options M3

 

[RTPEV]

I averaged the config -> VIN elapsed time for the last 100 reported VINs and it's 32.5 days. Today is day 33 for me. It's statistically more likely for me to get a VIN than not on a given day, right? I mean, it's a hair over 50% now, right? Anticipation is killing me...

Technically you have to count all the people who configured that HAVEN'T received VINs yet as well. Even if you assume they will all receive VINs today, adding those people into your average will raise your average. Granted, if the spreadsheet/database is your source of this data, then for sure some of those old data points are stale. But some aren't.

 

[RTPEV]

Reserved 3/31/2016 @ 2pm at Santana Row store
Got invite on 4/10/2018
Configured on 4/23/2018
Deep Blue Metallic
19” Sports Wheels


It is interesting to note that someone configured their M3 with same color and sports wheels a day after mine and already got a VIN while I am still waiting for it. Thought that the Bay Area reserve holder ( 10 miles from Fremont factory) has high priority, but it wasn’t the case. Maybe Tesla gives priority to full options M3

Clearly they are making a play into Canada...whether this is to help the Ontarians meet their tax credit deadline, avoid crossing 200K in the US before July, or some other reason, Canadian orders are taking priority for now. Same for Washington state a week or so ago as they too are facing a tax credit deadline.

 

[RenMan68]

Technically you have to count all the people who configured that HAVEN'T received VINs yet as well. Even if you assume they will all receive VINs today, adding those people into your average will raise your average. Granted, if the spreadsheet/database is your source of this data, then for sure some of those old data points are stale. But some aren't.

That's a really good point. Darnit.

 

[RenMan68]

Interesting though... I've thought about this some more (with the benefit of a couple of glasses of wine Does it make a difference? That is, if we consider the population who have configured but not received VINs, does it change the average? Here's my thinking: for the people who have config'ed but not VIN'ed, the most optimistic prediction is that they all get VINs tomorrow. If this is the case, then the average config2vin time would be, I expect, quite small since many people have config'ed quite recently, driving the average down. That is, I suspect more have config'ed in the last 32 days than more than 32 days ago. (based on the only applicable data we have). Since we don't know when they (we, in my case) will get a VIN, it's all supposition (except that it can be no earlier than tomorrow). The best way to predict when we will get our VINs is based on the past config2vin elapsed time. The only really useful clue would be if there were 50,000 people who config'ed months ago and have not gotten a VIN but I don't think that's the case. Isn't that available in the master spreadsheet? (I know there are two now... but, somebody?)

 

[chojn1]

Reserved 3/31/2016 @ 2pm at Santana Row store
Got invite on 4/10/2018
Configured on 4/23/2018
Deep Blue Metallic
19” Sports Wheels


It is interesting to note that someone configured their M3 with same color and sports wheels a day after mine and already got a VIN while I am still waiting for it. Thought that the Bay Area reserve holder ( 10 miles from Fremont factory) has high priority, but it wasn’t the case. Maybe Tesla gives priority to full options M3

Being in the Bay Area is a disadvantage as there are more reservations that must be filled in that area than anywhere else. So as delivery capacity there is maxed, it becomes a problem for the one still waiting there. Our data suggests that options is not a priority. Wheel and color choice does affect your delivery time, but only because they don't match production with demand precisely.

 

[chojn1]

Interesting though... I've thought about this some more (with the benefit of a couple of glasses of wine Does it make a difference? That is, if we consider the population who have configured but not received VINs, does it change the average? Here's my thinking: for the people who have config'ed but not VIN'ed, the most optimistic prediction is that they all get VINs tomorrow. If this is the case, then the average config2vin time would be, I expect, quite small since many people have config'ed quite recently, driving the average down. That is, I suspect more have config'ed in the last 32 days than more than 32 days ago. (based on the only applicable data we have). Since we don't know when they (we, in my case) will get a VIN, it's all supposition (except that it can be no earlier than tomorrow). The best way to predict when we will get our VINs is based on the past config2vin elapsed time. The only really useful clue would be if there were 50,000 people who config'ed months ago and have not gotten a VIN but I don't think that's the case. Isn't that available in the master spreadsheet? (I know there are two now... but, somebody?)

Unfortunate past times does not translate well to future predictions.
The problem is the stochastic pattern of production thus far. Look at a list of 100 reservations for example. Assume all are arranged in the exact order that they will be VIN'ed. What happens when the first 10 cars take 100 day to build and the last 10 cars take 1 day to build. You cannot use VIN time of the first ten to predict VIN time of the last 10.

Also what happens when there is a gap in production between car 30 and car 31? VIN time for car 30 will be significantly different than for car 31.

To use the data for prediction, you must have a uniform repeatable pattern which we do not have.

 

[bgbolton]

Peaked at design studio source today to see if any AWD snuck out. There you can find the exact reservation time. Appears also that the estimated delivery date is a fake 4/1 to 6/1.

 

[ben174]

Here is the method I've been using to try to gauge when I should be expecting a VIN, but now that Tesla seems to be hiding VINs, who knows what we can expect.