M3 P+ Depreciation

[tess19]

Got my email with estimated delivery date and now looking for something else to worry about.
I will be buying it outright and wondered what it is like for depreciation. Assuming Elon don't start reducing the price of the range again, what would be the retained value of the P+ after 3 years? I know the X & S were doing quite well until they lopped 50k off the list price.

 

[Durzel]

Easiest way to find out is to look at Tesla's own estimated residual value on the PCP quotes.

From memory it is around £26.5k after 3 years? So about 45% depreciation in that time, which is inline with other cars if not a bit poorer.

Interestingly neither premium interior nor FSD make a difference to this value.

 

[Rooster6655]

Got my email with estimated delivery date and now looking for something else to worry about.
I will be buying it outright and wondered what it is like for depreciation. Assuming Elon don't start reducing the price of the range again, what would be the retained value of the P+ after 3 years? I know the X & S were doing quite well until they lopped 50k off the list price.

I would ignore pcp estimates as FSD Tesla’s are going to be game changers with their retained value.

Definitely can not compare to other ice cars and also not other EVs on some points ie FSD and upgradability.

Another factor to consider is the savings you’ll make vs an ice car and also the grant discount you got which could also go away in a few years.

I would be surprised if the car is worth less than £30k in 3 years, wouldn’t be surprised if 35k assuming no devaluations on price.

Tesla wants as many cars on the road and has low margins vs Ice cars which rely on you replacing them this has a big effect on resale values especially when they have large mark ups through the supply chain.

 

[Ambergold]

If Tesla wanted to keep prices high they could inflate trade in values on their own brand, this is not what I’ve seen in the US. Quite the opposite with Model S owners seriously disappointed with the low trade in values offered by Tesla. Just sayin...

 

[ewoodrick]

Enjoy your car and stop worrying about what you can't control and what will probably change.
Before anybody has a better than wild guess, 3 years need to pass. While we are just passing year 2, mass production didn't start until just over a year ago.

 

[gangzoom]

Easiest way to find out is to look at Tesla's own estimated residual value on the PCP quotes.

Tesla PCP gives a GFV on a 6 seater X at £41k for 2 years and £34k for 3 years.

Can you show me where to get a 2 year old X for £41k?

 

[gangzoom]

I know the X & S were doing quite well until they lopped 50k off the list price.

£50k change was only for the P cars, the 'base' price on the S/X has actually gone up. £50k and £64k was the old starting prices of S/X in 2016, now its £70/80k!!!

Residuals on all S/Xs are still crazy, we are looking for a second Tesla for my wife, and a 100D S would do nicely but they are stubbornly over priced still.

 

[fuzzywuzzy]

I would ignore pcp estimates as FSD Tesla’s are going to be game changers with their retained value.

Definitely can not compare to other ice cars and also not other EVs on some points ie FSD and upgradability.

FSD should not be a factor in anyone's decision making around residual value in 3 years - it will NOT happen in anywhere close to that time frame.
To date Tesla's are doing better than I would have expected on residuals and I don't see why the M3 would be different (in fact it will likely have less of a drop as there's not so much of the luxury premium price to drop from). Personally it is something that does worry me a bit though due to some parts of the car's technology being rapidly developed and not software up-gradable. What if in a couple of years there's a big battery cell break-through - it's going to be harder to off-load your 200ish mile range M3 when a load of 400ish mile cars are close to market. All speculation of course and leasing is still likely to end up costing you more over 3 years than purchasing out-right (using a loan) but there is more of an unknown there than with ICE cars IMO.

 

[Daverh]

Can you show me where to get a 2 year old X for £41k?

If I could find a 2 year old Model X for £41k I wouldn't tell anyone about it until after I'd bought it I suspect the car would become an episode of Hoovies Garage however. "I bought the cheapest Model X on Autotrader and this is everything that's wrong with it"

 

[Peteski]

Easiest way to find out is to look at Tesla's own estimated residual value on the PCP quotes.

From memory it is around £26.5k after 3 years? So about 45% depreciation in that time, which is inline with other cars if not a bit poorer.

Interestingly neither premium interior nor FSD make a difference to this value.

Since HMRC has recently clamped down on PCP residuals, they are no longer a realistic guide to depreciation. Basically they now have to pretty much guarantee reasonable equity at the end of the term - hence why they now seem lower than before.

 

[Peteski]

What if in a couple of years there's a big battery cell break-through - it's going to be harder to off-load your 200ish mile range M3 when a load of 400ish mile cars are close to market.

That's not going to happen overnight. Any new battery tech would take many years to go into production. The main issue manufacturers are facing today is producing enough current tech batteries to fit in their cars. For example Audi already appear to have run out of E-tron batteries, which is now delaying production.

 

[Peteski]

£50k change was only for the P cars, the 'base' price on the S/X has actually gone up. £50k and £64k was the old starting prices of S/X in 2016, now its £70/80k!!!

Yes I agree, it's a very different scenario with the M3 P+ which is now less than £4k more expensive than the LR AWD and only £12k more than the SR+. If anything that will make the P+ even more desirable on the used market relative to the cheaper models. I think all M3s will have very strong residuals for quite some time (basically as long as it really matters for anyone buying one today) as there is literally no direct competition. I think they will be way ahead of comparable ICE cars like the BMW 3 series.

 

[MrBadger]

For example Audi already appear to have run out of E-tron batteries, which is now delaying production.

Sorry, I first read that as customers

 

[Jason71]

Enjoy your car and stop worrying .

Thats a record for a depreciation thread. It took a whole 7 hours for someone to say just enjoy the car and don't worry about it!

 

[Jason71]

Personally I will be starting a petition to end the horrific misuse of public money that is the EV grant.........the day after I collect a car and get mine. That should help my residuals a bit

 

[MrBadger]

Be careful for what you wish. In America, a drop in the subsidy is usually followed by a price drop to compensate.

 

[tess19]

For example Audi already appear to have run out of E-tron batteries, which is now delaying production.

Just googled "etron batteries" and it came back with something nothing to do with Audi.

 

[Rooster6655]

FSD should not be a factor in anyone's decision making around residual value in 3 years - it will NOT happen in anywhere close to that time frame.
To date Tesla's are doing better than I would have expected on residuals and I don't see why the M3 would be different (in fact it will likely have less of a drop as there's not so much of the luxury premium price to drop from). Personally it is something that does worry me a bit though due to some parts of the car's technology being rapidly developed and not software up-gradable. What if in a couple of years there's a big battery cell break-through - it's going to be harder to off-load your 200ish mile range M3 when a load of 400ish mile cars are close to market. All speculation of course and leasing is still likely to end up costing you more over 3 years than purchasing out-right (using a loan) but there is more of an unknown there than with ICE cars IMO.

Firstly when I said FSD I meant possibility of upgrading to FSD through software in the future, this in the long term has value along with being kept up to date.

A break through in battery tech isn’t going to happen and in the unlikely case it did bringing a new product to market on scale would take years.

EVs especially low profit ones will have a much better resale value then ICE cars, the batteries alone have a lot of value and could be reused in multiple applications. The resale value of the Tesla’s is a complex one which can’t be explained in a single post.

 

[Rooster6655]

If Tesla wanted to keep prices high they could inflate trade in values on their own brand, this is not what I’ve seen in the US. Quite the opposite with Model S owners seriously disappointed with the low trade in values offered by Tesla. Just sayin...

Well the price they pay for a trade in isn’t going to make resale values higher, just means they make more money buying low.

You will find used Tesla’s from Tesla have substantial mark up and are not cheap, they may not even necessarily resell all the cars they accept as trade ins and probably just use auction houses to price them up.

 

[gangzoom]

Tesla actually makes life hard for themselves interms of generating new sales by offering so many things to keep their older cars up to date.

I've had the HEPA filter retrofit done, CCS charger hopefully today, 'uncorked' 0-60 time, FSD will get me a new AP3 computer at some point, and Musk still says even MCU 1 to MCU 2 upgrade is possible in future, as well as potential battery pack swaps. Which other manufactures does stuff like this??

Ignore the hot air around panel gaps etc, over all these are good cars that go on and on, which is partly when the used demand is high and will remain so.

Looking at the EV market now would you pay £35k for a 4 year old used P85 S or the same for a Kona EV? I would say one is a steal for some fab RWD fun wrapped up in a timeless design and the other an overpriced FWD small hatchback.