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I read it that in addition to the Fremont plant and the US Gigafactory there will be an overseas assembly plant (like Fremont) and an overseas Gigafactory (like the one they are going to build outside San Antonio (hopefully)).

According to the article that was linked on TM twitter feed Elon apparently have remarked that total of TEN gigafactories will eventually need to be built. This means that there is a consideration given to TM producing 5 million cars per year.

Twitter / phxbizjournal: Our tech reporter gets behind ...
 
My sense is that the Model E is what's standing between Tesla at $400-$500+/share and taking some of the market from non-luxury car makers, as opposed to the current ~$200/share competing with other luxury car makers.

If their $35k Model E is just like the $50k Model S , then other car-makers will probably move in on the ~200 mile EV market and limit Tesla's share of the market (both in terms of cars and battery production). But if they can pull it off, then their shares will jump again, probably closer to a market capitalization of a company like Honda.
 
If their $35k Model E is just like the $50k Model S , then other car-makers will probably move in on the ~200 mile EV market and limit Tesla's share of the market (both in terms of cars and battery production).

This WILL NOT limit TM share of anything because at that point demand for EV will be higher than the production by all players for DECADES. Just think of it - there is more than 250 million passenger vehicles registered in US alone, while the yearly sales are at about 16 million. Do the math - it will take more than fifteen years to replace an ICE fleet with EV if ALL cars from ALL manufacturers sold in US are electric!

This is the reason EM said many times that he welcomes competition in EV space. The market is so enormous that there will be space for many manufacturers, without them limiting each other's share of the market.
 
Most analysts don't see the market as being that large. It could be, but I doubt it.

It will surely grow at a brisk pace, but production will scale with demand for EVs like it does with anything else, and if Tesla can't/won't make the Model E as affordable as they say they will, then that segment will be dominated by other manufacturers.
 
Most analysts don't see the market as being that large. It could be, but I doubt it.

It will surely grow at a brisk pace, but production will scale with demand for EVs like it does with anything else, and if Tesla can't/won't make the Model E as affordable as they say they will, then that segment will be dominated by other manufacturers.

Yes. We've come to respect the almighty analyst

2012 Tesla Model S Electric Sedan: Industry Analyst Weighs In

But the idea that Tesla could sell tens of thousands of Model S sedans in the U.S. is folly.
 
I didn't say the analyst, I said most analysts. And of course, there were many analysts who were wrong about Tesla, and about Toyota with the Prius, and so on...

With that said, show me a majority of analysts that think what you posited is even remotely likely.

Don't get me wrong, it'd be great if every vehicle sold from this point on was an EV or good PHEV, and if everyone put PV panels/super-insulated their homes, etc... But I doubt that'll happen.
 
With that said, show me a majority of analysts that think what you posited is even remotely likely.

So your challenge is for an individual summary of several hundred analyst to constitute a majority of analyst around the world?

At least a months work if working M-F eight hours per day.

A casual perusal of analyst reports will find they consistently underestimate the sales of BEVs and PHEVs the last 5 years.

Don't get me wrong, it'd be great if every vehicle sold from this point on was an EV or good PHEV, and if everyone put PV panels/super-insulated their homes, etc... But I doubt that'll happen.

Really, you doubt that ice vehicles currently on dealer lots will not be sold.

Nobody doubts that.

Elon believes over 50% of the new car market in the USA will be electric within 10 years.

The proposition here is that any "compelling" BEV, in other words with performance comparable to an ICE vehicle, will have demand outstripping capacity for the foreseeable future.

Therefore any OEM that jumps in will have their investment more than justified without impacting the profitability or sales projections of Tesla.

Any new competitor is an indirect collaborator of Tesla because they expand the market for BEV parts making it more likely that new electronic firms and automotive parts firms jump into the pool of companies competing for BEV parts business.
 

So great to re-read all the pre-Model S pessimism. Too bad most of the same authors are now pessimistic about the gigafactory and Model E instead of admitting how short-sighted they were.

I didn't say the analyst, I said most analysts. And of course, there were many analysts who were wrong about Tesla, and about Toyota with the Prius, and so on...

With that said, show me a majority of analysts that think what you posited is even remotely likely.

Don't get me wrong, it'd be great if every vehicle sold from this point on was an EV or good PHEV, and if everyone put PV panels/super-insulated their homes, etc... But I doubt that'll happen.

When a majority of analysts are in agreement with the bulls on this forum, it will be time to exit my position.

Any new competitor is an indirect collaborator of Tesla because they expand the market for BEV parts making it more likely that new electronic firms and automotive parts firms jump into the pool of companies competing for BEV parts business.

Also, I love the pro-EV ads for the Leaf that I've been hearing, it's just free advertising for Tesla.
 
Information from Elon's Cross-country trip... after the gag order expired...

There are a number of places I could have / should have posted this; please reference this where ever you deem appropriate.
There are multiple assumptions and insights one can draw from this very obscure article.

Enjoy.

Tesla gets a charge out of Winslow, Arizona <--That is a clickable link.>

April 20, 2014 7:30 am • By CLIFFORD FEWEL Special to the Daily Sun(0) Comments
CEO Elon Musk pays a visit to the La Posada hotel and its new electric

Four months ago Allan Affeldt, owner of the La Posada hotel in Winslow, ordered a Tesla supercharger for the La Posada parking lot “because it’s the right thing to do,” he says.

A Tesla supercharger is a device that will charge any all-electric luxury/performance Tesla vehicle in an hour — much, much faster than your standard trickle-chargers for more modest electric vehicles made by other manufacturers.

Affeldt also plans to install charging stations for those other cars, none of which match, as does Tesla, the high-end demographic of those who regularly patronize La Posada and its four-star Turquoise Room restaurant.

Affeldt recently installed a half-acre array of solar panels on the La Posada grounds, making his the largest privately owned collection of solar panels in northern Arizona.

Now, in addition to the electric needs of the upscale hotel, those panels power not one, but two power stations for any Tesla cars that happen by the historic Harvey House hotel, which was designed nearly 100 years ago by legendary Arizona architect Mary Jane Coulter.

The Tesla car company now has a chain of charging stations that will get you and your Tesla from coast to coast, given its range of 300 miles per charge. The need for the second Tesla supercharger came about when Affeldt learned that hotel reservations had been made by one noted billionaire, Elon Musk, and a large entourage to include three Model S Teslas.

Apparently Musk was on a rare vacation with his wife, children, parents, brother and security team, taking in the Grand Canyon, Route 66 and other Southwestern sites.

As to how the Musk party happened to make reservations the very same week that Affeldt’s single supercharger was to be installed “is a mystery,” says Affeldt. But it was also a rare opportunity to have the first user of his system be Musk himself, the man who joined a struggling electric vehicle company several years ago and turned it into the global leader in e-car technology.

“Once I knew he was coming I added a second charger,” says Affeldt, “and my electrician worked every day to get the system up.”

The system cost Affeldt over $10,000 for two 100-amp charging circuits, each requiring a 200-amp breaker, each drawing 80 amps per charge.

A REAL CAR GUY

One week ago Musk’s three Tesla sedans rotated through the chargers while he and his family enjoyed the ambiance, art and cuisine of Affeldt’s La Posada and Chef John Sharpe’s highly decorated Turquoise Room.

Affeldt suspects that the Turquoise Room may have been the original draw, as Musk’s bother, Kimbal, is “a foodie guy, well-known for his interest in locovore, sustainable-harvest foods” — the specialties of the British-born Chef Sharpe. Whether the hotel or the restaurant was the reason, says Affeldt, “It was just a really nice coincidence.”

In his sunny upstairs office at La Posada, it becomes clear that Affeldt’s passions go beyond resurrecting a once seemingly doomed hotel building, or donating land for a much-needed Winslow detox center, or diving into local politics to the point of serving a term as Winslow’s mayor a few years back.

It turns out Affeldt is a real car guy.

As to whether he one day will own a Tesla, Affeldt says, “It’s the kind of thing I would do, but I’m kind of a retro guy. I own an old Ferrari, and what I drive mostly is the truck, a Ford F-350.”

BRING ON IRON MAN

Affeldt says he has been following the arc of Elon Musk’s career ever since Musk founded PayPal, where he made his fortune, and his work with Tesla and SpaceX, a company out to revolutionize private space travel.

“The cool thing about this guy is that he takes on things people say can’t be done,” says Affeldt. “He was the inspiration for the Iron Man movies. He is Tony Stark, billionaire inventor. Someone once asked Google co-founder Sergey Brin what he was going to do with all his money, maybe give it to charity? He said the best thing he could ever do for the world with his money would be to give it to Elon.”

Meanwhile, after spending more time with Musk’s brother, Kimbal, than with the more private Elon, Affeldt says he is looking forward to partnering with the younger Musk brother on a venture known as Learning Gardens.

“These are modular edible gardens designed for school districts, so kids know what it’s like to be around food and learn where it comes from,” he says.
 
There are also actual Tesla Superchargers in Winslow, AZ.
So these HWPC units are an additional plus. Kudos to Allan Affeldt! I will stay at his place next time I am in Winslow!
Good to support those businesses that are helping to rollout the infrastructure of the EV revolution!
Definitely helps TSLA long term.
 
FTC seems to agree with Tesla on the dealership issue...

Indeed it does. I wrote the FTC about it a month ago. An FTC lawyer responded, "Thank you for your email. It has been forwarded to appropriate Commission staff members for review." Apparently I was taken seriously. This may soon lead to a White House response to the Tesla related petition. It may even result in the FTC or Justice Department bringing the case to the federal courts.