Launch is Imminent

[Mrbrock]

Your caveat is key. Quad motor wasn't on the table at the launch. Like I said, the competition for the quad motor is the Hummer which is $108k.



Inflation has taken prices up 18% over the past 4 years. Further, IIRC, no other Tesla model had pricing announced 4 years before production began. So you can pull up all the charts you want but they aren't relevant to the CT.

S/X prices were cut to stimulate demand, not because they became cheaper to produce. CT demand will initially be high and so will the prices. I agree that they will cut CT prices but once demand drops. No idea when that will be but probably longer than 6 months.

The cheapest Model 3 is $40k. There is NO WAY that there will be a CT of any configuration for less than that. It is a much larger vehicle than a Model 3.

The cheapest CT will be $49k. There will probably be a tri-motor for $70k but I doubt it will have the largest battery.

Maybe single motor RWD will be $50,000 with no options (no tow or air suspension) and then $65k for dual motor AWD with tow and air suspension and $90k for tri motor. Quad is likely dead. Plaid+ Model S died because "no need for 500 mile range". Are people willing to pay $120k for an extra 50-100 miles of towing range? If the dual is 300 mile, then figure 150 towing range. If the quad is 500, then $250 towing range. That's $55k for 100 miles of towing range.

What’s the latest news/rumors regarding if it will be a 5 seater or 6 seater?

5.

 

[Knightshade]

I was commenting basically on the fact that most truck owners only tow once per year. If you're towing six times per year (or more), then it is a different discussion.

Just to clarify, the most commonly cited data actually says most owners (75% in fact) tow once a year or less

Meaning it's likely the majority of owners tow zero times a year, and would likewise rent a "towing truck" 0 times a year.

Similarly nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less (meaning zero times for many).

And a full 35 percent of truck owners use their truck for hauling—putting something in the bed, its ostensible raison d’être—once a year or less.


By all means if you're in the minority that tows often enough that renting 0 or 1 times a year is a huge pain- get yourself a nice hauling truck.

But don't pretend that's most owners.

 

[RMS149]

Maybe single motor RWD will be $50,000 with no options (no tow or air suspension) and then $65k for dual motor AWD with tow and air suspension and $90k for tri motor. Quad is likely dead. Plaid+ Model S died because "no need for 500 mile range". Are people willing to pay $120k for an extra 50-100 miles of towing range? If the dual is 300 mile, then figure 150 towing range. If the quad is 500, then $250 towing range. That's $55k for 100 miles of towing range.

5.

Yes 250 is a need for many who tow their boats and their toy haulers to locations without power. If you do not tow then perhaps you do not know?

 

[DarkandStormy]

So is the delivery event going to happen this quarter like Tesla executives said a few months back?

 

[mongo]

Which executive when?
Q2 earnings call two months ago: "And we can't wait to start delivering it later this year."

Less than a month ago:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694460811291578722

 

[DarkandStormy]

Which executive when?
Q2 earnings call two months ago: "And we can't wait to start delivering it later this year."

Less than a month ago:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694460811291578722

Elon Musk announces Tesla Cybertruck delivery event in third quarter of 2023

It’s been over three years since the Cybertruck was announced.

www.theverge.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Elon Musk announces Tesla Cybertruck delivery event in third quarter of 2023

It’s been over three years since the Cybertruck was announced.

www.theverge.com

Let's see. Regarding the Cybertruck, we continue to build Alpha versions of the Cybertruck on our pilot line for testing purposes. It's a great product, and we're completing the installation of the volume production line at Giga Texas, and we're anticipating having delivery event, a great delivery event probably in Q3

"Probably", said Elon. "Oh. So not really then," said the English-speaking World.

 

[strider]

Maybe single motor RWD will be $50,000 with no options (no tow or air suspension) and then $65k for dual motor AWD with tow and air suspension and $90k for tri motor. Quad is likely dead. Plaid+ Model S died because "no need for 500 mile range". Are people willing to pay $120k for an extra 50-100 miles of towing range? If the dual is 300 mile, then figure 150 towing range. If the quad is 500, then $250 towing range. That's $55k for 100 miles of towing range.

Elon will make sure the CT beats the Hummer SUT in performance and range. Hummer range is 381 and 0-60 in 3.0. If the CT can do that as a tri-motor then you may be correct on the quad but Elon promised 500 mile range at the launch and I expect them to hold to that.

Also, higher performance requires larger battery pack (higher range) in order to get the per-cell discharge rate where it needs to be supply the large amounts of power without damaging the cells. This is why the Roadster 4.0 was announced w/ 600 mile range - they needed a 200kWh battery pack in order to get the discharge rate where they needed it. Obviously battery chemistry has changed since then so they probably don't need as large as they did a few years ago but there is still a correlation.

 

[afadeev]

$10,000 off for a pick-up? Try $41,000 off for a Model X.

Nope, different things. The pickup never changes the MSRP.

Immaterial distinction.
When the product doesn't sell (supply > demand), OEM drops the listed price, or puts "cash on the hood", or subsidizes financing, or includes premium options for "free".
Whatever the method, the motivation is identical - improve value proposition by lowering the price, to nudge demand to catch with the supply.

The secondary outcome is an instant depreciation of value for all previously sold vehicles of the same type, current in the hands of (now less) loyal customers.

And this is FAR from the first price reduction that Tesla has ever done. Unlike other manufacturers, Tesla is passing the economies of scaling the production back to the customers.

Please tell me that you are not THAT gullible.

Tesla manipulates prices to manipulate demand.
Nothing more, nothing less. Margins reflect that fully.

If you still think that Tesla does something to "pass economies of scale", please feel free to explain why it's "economies of scale" for Model X have been degrading from 2020 to 2023, before suddenly "improving" by 33% on September 1st 2023?

Tesla Car Historical Prices Analysis

This analysis was initially conducted in May 2023. For the most recent updated version, please check out…

leonwei.com

 

[ewoodrick]

Immaterial distinction.
When the product doesn't sell (supply > demand), OEM drops the listed price, or puts "cash on the hood", or subsidizes financing, or includes premium options for "free".
Whatever the method, the motivation is identical - improve value proposition by lowering the price, to nudge demand to catch with the supply.

The secondary outcome is an instant depreciation of value for all previously sold vehicles of the same type, current in the hands of (now less) loyal customers.



Please tell me that you are not THAT gullible.

Tesla manipulates prices to manipulate demand.
Nothing more, nothing less. Margins reflect that fully.

If you still think that Tesla does something to "pass economies of scale", please feel free to explain why it's "economies of scale" for Model X have been degrading from 2020 to 2023, before suddenly "improving" by 33% on September 1st 2023?

Sure, believe as you believe.
In which direction are Tesla profits moving?
In which direction are the other manufacturers moving?

In which direction are the other manufacturers prices moving? Do I remember Ford decreasing prices?

 

[Kevy Baby]

Just to clarify, the most commonly cited data actually says most owners (75% in fact) tow once a year or less

Meaning it's likely the majority of owners tow zero times a year, and would likewise rent a "towing truck" 0 times a year.

Similarly nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less (meaning zero times for many).

And a full 35 percent of truck owners use their truck for hauling—putting something in the bed, its ostensible raison d’être—once a year or less.


By all means if you're in the minority that tows often enough that renting 0 or 1 times a year is a huge pain- get yourself a nice hauling truck.

But don't pretend that's most owners.

I am not sure if you think we disagree, but you're basically stating more expanded info than what I said (but basically the same thing). I intentionally kept my quick stat conservative, knowing full well that the full story is what you posted.

(In other words: not sure why you quoted me.)

 

[willow_hiller]

Usual caveats apply about intel from Tesla sales associates, but the most recent word we have is "a few days" over the phone which they later changed to "any day now" when prompted in writing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702036945252335748

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702042226539512089

Edit: "speculation"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702056194545008699

 

[FLRifleman]

Maybe single motor RWD will be $50,000 with no options (no tow or air suspension) and then $65k for dual motor AWD with tow and air suspension and $90k for tri motor. Quad is likely dead. Plaid+ Model S died because "no need for 500 mile range". Are people willing to pay $120k for an extra 50-100 miles of towing range? If the dual is 300 mile, then figure 150 towing range. If the quad is 500, then $250 towing range. That's $55k for 100 miles of towing range.

5.

The Silverado EV WT4 and up has an EPA range of 400 miles, and the WT4 should be a hair under $80k. But I agree there are diminishing returns. Those that tow beyond short distances are simply better off sticking with gas or diesel.

 

[rhumbliner]

Tesla manipulates prices to manipulate demand.

Unless Elon is out there holding a gun to peoples head, it would more accurate to say Tesla manipulates prices in response to demand.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Sure, believe as you believe.
In which direction are Tesla profits moving?
In which direction are the other manufacturers moving?

In which direction are the other manufacturers prices moving? Do I remember Ford decreasing prices?

Ford cuts prices on its electric F-150 Lightning pickups by as much as $10,000

Ford said lower mineral costs and an expected production boost allowed it to cut the electric truck's prices.

www.cnbc.com

 

[strider]

Sure, believe as you believe.
In which direction are Tesla profits moving?
In which direction are the other manufacturers moving?

In which direction are the other manufacturers prices moving? Do I remember Ford decreasing prices?

Wow, the kool-aid is strong with this one. You didn't answer @afadeev's question. If Tesla is so noble that they pass on their cost savings to consumers, why have prices moved up in the past? It's because the order book was thick. Now the order book is thin so they are dropping prices.

Other manufacturers leave their MSRPs the same but offer "incentives" when demand falters. This is probably related to their agreements with their dealers. Since Tesla doesn't have dealers, they just change the MSRP in response to demand. They are 2 different ways of doing the same thing - lowering the price to entice more people to buy. It's no different than any other retail business.

 

[Twiglett]

I suppose realistically, the enabler for the price drops is because they have reduced the cost of manufacturing.
But the price changes are absolutely everything about demand and ensuring the factories can sustain a run rate that keeps the costs low.
One thing that can be said for Tesla, the more factories they build or the higher production gets, the more likely we will see reducing costs (for Tesla to pull another demand lever)

 

[DLThomas]

Tesla has never been known for extensive preproduction validation and testing. Hence why they have problems that crop up after the cars are released about things that seemingly were not well tested or thought out. Eg: rain and snow rolling into the Model 3 trunk, Model 3/Y frozen door handles, ride quality issues, wind and road noise issues, creaks and rattles, etc

Tesla doing things differently than the legacy automakers. The big difference is speed of concept to customer. Hence the disruptive business model.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Tesla doing things differently than the legacy automakers. The big difference is speed of concept to customer. Hence the disruptive business model.

Except CT, Semi, and Roadster?

 

[strider]

Tesla doing things differently than the legacy automakers. The big difference is speed of concept to customer. Hence the disruptive business model.

Yes, but Tesla went from one extreme to the other. While legacy automakers are too cautious, Tesla has a LONG and distinguished list of pushing things before they are ready. For example, removing the dedicated rain sensor for the wipers before the vision wipers worked. Removing the front radar before vision worked properly (and now it seems like they are bringing radar back so the whole thing was a mistake). Removing USS before vision parking sensors worked. And on and on and on. Everything Tesla does is Ready, Fire, Aim. They still get lucky and hit the target sometimes but often it takes them YEARS to correct (see above examples).