Launch is Imminent

[Earl]

At this point, no-one knows if those orders are real, imaginary, or highly conditional on the previous price expectation. Or some combination of thereof.

While this is true, I wouldn't recommend betting on it not being very successful.

Folks said the same about the Model 3 when it was the most successful pre-order product ever.
While there were a lot of cancellations, there were even more new orders over time.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

While this is true, I wouldn't recommend betting on it not being very successful.

Folks said the same about the Model 3 when it was the most successful pre-order product ever.
While there were a lot of cancellations, there were even more new orders over time.

the Model 3 had *zero* competition in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and all into 2021 (...) so yeah... no kidding it was succesful.
There simply wasn't any EV of that size with that range at that price on the market.

Cybertruck is running behind ... you already have the F150 Lightning, Rivian R1T on the market with the Silverado EV and RAM EV joining shortly... whole different environment vs. Model 3 launching in 2017...

 

[EXOTIC1]

They will crush it with the CT release
…… book it!

 

[kpanda17]

This is not about the Lightening, R1T, REV buyers
Traditional pickup truck buyers dabbling in EVs

It’s about unique buyers like those that went for S and X when they first came out

It’s going to be huge

 

[Eric9610]

If 5% is = no one (or presumably, nothing), could you please send me 5% of the price of a Cybertruck? Shouldn't matter at all, since it's nothing!

Well that would be 0.000 since pricing doesn't exist proving my comment...
Also 5% deviation is a statistical anomaly that would be excluded in all production planning or cannibalization planning since total volume of X is so low... I think people are forgetting Tesla does not care to sell an X as margin on the CT will be better on a per units basis. If I am Tesla, I would encourage the switch to drive increased GM... We are not in a vacuum... With the Dual motor they want to capture as much market as possible. With the 4 motor version it will be priced close to the plaid.

 

[Earl]

the Model 3 had *zero* competition in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and all into 2021 (...) so yeah... no kidding it was succesful.
There simply wasn't any EV of that size with that range at that price on the market.

Cybertruck is running behind ... you already have the F150 Lightning, Rivian R1T on the market with the Silverado EV and RAM EV joining shortly... whole different environment vs. Model 3 launching in 2017...

There's nothing but the big battery CT with practical range for towing or hauling (remember you need to divide the EPA range by 2). While the F150 Lightning is very appealing, the Rivian only holds the light-duty toy market. The smaller-battery CT will be quite competitive against both of those and that market is plenty big enough for more than one entrant.
Don't forget that most of those Model 3 pre-orders were 1st time EVs. Today, we know Teslas are viable against any ICE for nearly any purpose and that the FUDsters were wrong.
Additionally, there are a lot of folks who don't want to be just another of the dozens of Model 3's, Y's, and S's in the parking lot at work - but want the quality of a Tesla.
You're welcome to put your money wherever you like but I've had the last laugh a lot of times about EVs over the past 2 decades

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680123171163209729

Let's say they average 10 per day between now and end Sep launch. That would be 770 in storage. Could they launch earlier?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680129409863520256

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let's say they average 10 per day between now and end Sep launch. That would be 770 in storage. Could they launch earlier?

2023H2 numbers scarcely matter: We will see real volume production in 2024Q1, just like Elon told us 3 months ago. The best news we've received since then is to expect 375K/yr initial capacity (which provides an clear production upgrade path to 750k/yr once demand is proven, and the 1st CT line is making positive gross margins). Here's what Omar omits:

July 8, 2017 — First Model 3 Produced​

July 28, 2017 — Model 3 Handoff Event​

Sep, 2017 — 200th Model 3 produced​

Nov, 2017 — Tesla Grohmann Automation ships 1st of 4 Bty building modules​

June, 2018 — Tesla reaches 5K Model 3 production per week​

Hint: serious production volume won't happen until after the Giga Texas Cathode plant is up and running. Drew told us to expect that in 2023Q4.

TL;dr It's all about the batteries... as always.

 

[Mengy]

Let's say they average 10 per day between now and end Sep launch. That would be 770 in storage. Could they launch earlier?

I wouldn't assume an average of 10 per day from now to anytime soon. Yes they produced the first CT off the line, but I'm certain they still have adjustments to make, so it's not like they'll be making CT's daily next week or anything. Soon, yes, but not THAT soon!

I think launch will be in September, and they'll probably have a couple dozen to deliver to customers on launch day. I'd only expect about 200 or so total CT's produced one month after launch though, so like a couple CT's per day production? Not 10 though, not in the first month. This is a completely new production line and manufacturing method for Tesla so realistically it's going to ramp sllooowwwwllllyyyyyyy at first.

I don't think we'll see meaningful volume, like 1000 per week, until early 2024. That's my hunch.

In any case, we are CLOSE now, woohooo!!!

 

[mm9351]

First Cybertruck to roll off the assembly line at the GigaTexas plant and kudos to the team that made it happen.

 

[cliff harris]

I agree that a few dozen on launch day and 200 a month later sounds reasonable.
BUT
This is not Teslas first second or third rodeo. They clearly learned a lot of what not to do during model 3 ramp. They have also learned a lot more about factory design. This is not the model 3 at freemont any more, but a factory purpose built to produce the CT. Thats a big difference.
I reckon we will get an initial flurry of cybertrucks, and then a pause, maybe for weeks, while all the first problems and issues and squeaks and rattles get worked out based on real-world feedback from those owners. But once those issues are addressed, I think the subsequent ramp will be steep.

My guess:
August: First deliveries: 24 trucks
end of September: total of 200 produced to date
October: 600
November: 1,200
December: 2,000
YMMV

 

[Mengy]

My guess:
August: First deliveries: 24 trucks
end of September: total of 200 produced to date
October: 600
November: 1,200
December: 2,000
YMMV

I agree with your ramp speed, I just think it will start one month later than you do!

September: First deliveries: 24 trucks
end of October: total of 200 produced to date
November: 600
December: 1,200
January 2024: 2,000

 

[TessP100D]

You understand the total volume of Model X units made is a drop in the bucket compared to all other models Tesla makes... They sold 31k Model X units in 2022... (published in the shareholder report) it will be closer to 5% than 95%... LOL

And apparently, they are all in Redondo Beach and Manhattan Beach, Ca. I think I saw all of them this week. Everywhere, every corner.

 

[Knightshade]

I agree that a few dozen on launch day and 200 a month later sounds reasonable.
BUT
This is not Teslas first second or third rodeo. They clearly learned a lot of what not to do during model 3 ramp.

Then how do you explain the debacle that was the S/X plaid refresh? Just "Fremont sucks"?

 

[mongo]

Then how do you explain the debacle that was the S/X plaid refresh? Just "Fremont sucks"?

Ramp on new product != full model update running change during a pandemic.
Even so, the Plaid upgrade experience goes into the learnings also.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491505795724369925

 

[rhumbliner]

While the F150 Lightning is very appealing, the Rivian only holds the light-duty toy market.

I’m afraid you got your numbers mixed up: Lightning vs R1T

Tow capacity: Lightning 7,700 lbs; R1T 11,000 lbs
Horsepower: Lightning 426; R1T 835
Torque: Lightning 775; R1T 908

Clearly the Lightning is the “toy”. The only spec some people notice is bed size but for those of us who do serious hauling we’re towing a trailer anyway so bed size isn’t really critical.

 

[Knightshade]

Ramp on new product != full model update running change during a pandemic.

I mean, the tweet from Elon debunks the idea it was a running change.

They full stopped production-giving themselves all the time in the world to get the new production lines right... and then badly screwed up the NEW production of the revised model.... just as Elon said in that tweet.

Which just reinforces the fact that the claim Model 3 taught them what not to do and we can therefore assume future ramps will be smooth simply ain't so.

The only smooth ramp Tesla ever really had was Y, and that's because it was majority an existing platform already.

Original X ramp was bad, original 3 ramp was bad, refreshed S and X ramps both bad.

Tesla innovates, pretty massively, with each legit new thing... and CT might be most of all.... each time they do things don't ramp smoothly- which is kind of to be expected- and there's always new issues that come up when doing it. Eventually they get it right but out of the gate it's every single time except the Y pretty ugly.

No reason to suspect that won't be true yet again for the Cybertruck- perhaps moreso since it's so radically different from anything else they (or anyone) has built.

 

[cliff harris]

Original 3 ramp was freemont, S was freemont, X was freemont.
Yes, frankly, yes freemont is bad. Its a total disaster, an ex ICE plant that grew and morphed and changed and got refurbed and extended and reconfigured endlessly. Its not a coincidence they were able to buy it for peanuts.
Whenever I see complaints about Tesla build quality, it turns out to be a freemont car. I still firmly believe in the long run, Tesla will either abandon that factory or completely demolish it and build a new facility from scratch.

Factory design really does seem to matter, ESPECIALLY when you are building a completely new style of body (CT) with new assembly methods, and with a new type of drivetrain.
Tesla specifically built gigatexas for the model Y and CT. They have been planning how to do this a long time.

 

[Knightshade]

Original 3 ramp was freemont, S was freemont, X was freemont.
Yes, frankly, yes freemont is bad. Its a total disaster, an ex ICE plant that grew and morphed and changed and got refurbed and extended and reconfigured endlessly. Its not a coincidence they were able to buy it for peanuts.
Whenever I see complaints about Tesla build quality, it turns out to be a freemont car. I still firmly believe in the long run, Tesla will either abandon that factory or completely demolish it and build a new facility from scratch.

Factory design really does seem to matter, ESPECIALLY when you are building a completely new style of body (CT) with new assembly methods, and with a new type of drivetrain.
Tesla specifically built gigatexas for the model Y and CT. They have been planning how to do this a long time.

I'm open to this idea (even suggested it earlier) but.... Y was also Fremont.... Shanghai, Austin, Berlin all came later