Launch is Imminent

[uscbucsfan]

that's why the CT will cost a lot more than the Nov '19 teased "starting at $39k" ... pricing is one way of separation. if the Cybertruck with 300+ miles of range only costs a few $k more than the Model Y ... the Cybertruck will cannibalize high margin Model Y sales for the folks who gladly take more space and more offroad for just a bit more $. Kinda like the Model Y outsells the 3 which is only a few $k cheaper in the AWD version.

if the Cybertruck is priced ~$20k above the Model Y and still $10-20k below the X ... then cannibalization is less. Assuming Tesla prefers keeping X sales where they are.

I don't think the low end CT will be available until well after the MY refresh is out, personally.

I think they follow their normal cadence and release the highest/most expensive trim first unless the battery constraint is real, then maybe a middle version.

 

[kpanda17]

MY LR $50.5K dual motor and 330 miles range
CT $69K dual motor and 350 miles range
(Predicted by Farzad bottom tier model)
MX $98.5K dual motor and 348 miles range

We have great price spacing as to not cannibalize.

You might have a few existing Tesla owners that will trade up to the MY, that’s me, and some existing that might trade down from the X but won’t be a lot.
Think most buyers will be previous Tesla owners, prior or expanding not replacing, and alot of new to a Tesla buyers.

Exciting times

 

[texas_star_TM3]

MY LR $50.5K dual motor and 330 miles range
CT $69K dual motor and 350 miles range
(Predicted by Farzad bottom tier model)
MX $98.5K dual motor and 348 miles range

We have great price spacing as to not cannibalize.

You might have a few existing Tesla owners that will trade up to the MY, that’s me, and some existing that might trade down from the X but won’t be a lot.
Think most buyers will be previous Tesla owners, prior or expanding not replacing, and alot of new to a Tesla buyers.

Exciting times

there's no way you will see $69k - AND - 350 miles EPA in the same sentence. Especially not with the tax rebate limited to no more than generous $80k sales price. The F150 Lightning with 131kw pack/ dual motor and just 320 miles starts just shy of $80k ; Rivian R1T similar with just 314 miles EPA.

now the Cybertruck will be heavier than the Rivian R1T and likely also heavier than the F150 Lightning... the battery pack for 350 miles would likely be at least 140kw+. Something has to give... either price goes up or range goes down to something like ~300 miles...

Farzad also predicted robotaxis on the road by now... so there's that. or Tesla at $2k / stock

 

[uscbucsfan]

there's no way you will see $69k - AND - 350 miles EPA in the same sentence. Especially not with the tax rebate limited to no more than generous $80k sales price. The F150 Lightning with 131kw pack/ dual motor and just 320 miles starts just shy of $80k ; Rivian R1T similar with just 314 miles EPA.

now the Cybertruck will be heavier than the Rivian R1T and likely also heavier than the F150 Lightning... the battery pack for 350 miles would likely be at least 140kw+. Something has to give... either price goes up or range goes down to something like ~300 miles...

Farzad also predicted robotaxis on the road by now... so there's that. or Tesla at $2k / stock

Not sure why anyone is quoting Farzad...It's like quoting someone on these forums.

 

[seenhear]

Hey, longer can help the drag coefficient.

Highly unlikely. It only helps when it's longer in order to incorporate a gradual/smooth tear-drop tail.
Take an 18-wheeler semi tractor/trailer. Now add on an additional trailer, or just make the original trailer twice as long (to skip debate about the effects of the gap). It's longer. Drag coefficient doesn't decrease, if anything it will increase, simply due to the increase in surface area. The only decrease you'll see with a bigger overall length is if you stick an aero cap on the back end to minimize separation of the flow off the back.

 

[willow_hiller]

People here are forgetting that the Cybertruck assembly line is being co-developed along with the "unboxed" next generation vehicle. You can bet it's going to have some radical reductions in manufacturing costs baked into how it's made. Whether those reductions are reflected in a lower sale price, or a higher margin for Tesla remains to be seen.

 

[uscbucsfan]

People here are forgetting that the Cybertruck assembly line is being co-developed along with the "unboxed" next generation vehicle. You can bet it's going to have some radical reductions in manufacturing costs baked into how it's made. Whether those reductions are reflected in a lower sale price, or a higher margin for Tesla remains to be seen.

People forget because Elon has said twice now that the price will increase in so many words saying the price would change in 2022 and in 2023 saying it is "difficult to make affordable". Who knows where the pricing will be. I think they have to have a cheap variant or it wont scale at all...which Elon seemed to acknowledge by saying "It depends on the demand", despite the amount of pre-orders, but they may start out at a higher price. It's all a crap shoot at this point. Unless there's a Plaid version with 4 motors, behind the wheel screen, 500 miles of range...I don't think they can offer what we've seen in pictures close to 100k and actually sell a decent quantity.

Elon has said so many things about the CT, many aren't going to be reality, but we don't know what parts. It doesn't appear, from the frames pictures from earlier this week, it's an actual Exoskeleton. Cory on Munro Live broke that down a few months ago as a known, so it's not surprising.

 

[kpanda17]

Eggs were $2 in 2019
2023 they are $9

 

[willow_hiller]

People forget because Elon has said twice now that the price will increase in so many words saying the price would change in 2022 and in 2023 saying it is "difficult to make affordable". Who knows where the pricing will be.

Tesla pretty much nailed the ambitious Model 3, $35,000 estimate, accounting for inflation. It's not hard to do the inflation math from November 2019 to today.

- Single motor RWD $39,900 -> $47,330.76
- Dual motor AWD $49,900 -> $59,193.10
- Tri motor AWD $69,900 -> $82,917.79

 

[uscbucsfan]

Tesla pretty much nailed the ambitious Model 3, $35,000 estimate, accounting for inflation. It's not hard to do the inflation math from November 2019 to today.

- Single motor RWD $39,900 -> $47,330.76
- Dual motor AWD $49,900 -> $59,193.10
- Tri motor AWD $69,900 -> $82,917.79

There's a lot more factors than just inflation calculator. This was an entirely new manufacturing process created. The original batteries hoped to be used still aren't close to where they were planning for at battery day.

Will they release a Single motor? At one point Sawyer Merritt said they weren't, but how accurate is that?
Will they start with the quad motor Plaid Elon has talked about multiple times?
Will they have the battery supply to offer 500+ miles of range at the start?
Did things like rear wheel steering increase the price?
Will they have to use 2170s like the Semi?

I'd like to think Tesla will be able to negate some of the inflation, but it's still a crap shoot. Those prices weren't firm (as Tesla has stated), but how much have they changed?

Edit: I think there will be a very expensive variant and a low end one, which will eventually be the most common. After that, there's nothing that will shock me. I also think that Elon's statement of a "very slow ramp" and "no mass production until 2024" could mean we see very few actual customer deliveries this year.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Eggs were $2 in 2019
2023 they are $9

avian flu did that and has long eased. poor example.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Tesla pretty much nailed the ambitious Model 3, $35,000 estimate, accounting for inflation. It's not hard to do the inflation math from November 2019 to today.

- Single motor RWD $39,900 -> $47,330.76
- Dual motor AWD $49,900 -> $59,193.10
- Tri motor AWD $69,900 -> $82,917.79

Worldwide - lithium ion battery pack costs | Statista

Li-ion battery pack costs dropped to some 151 U.S.

www.statista.com

 

[Earl]

Highly unlikely. It only helps when it's longer in order to incorporate a gradual/smooth tear-drop tail.
Take an 18-wheeler semi tractor/trailer. Now add on an additional trailer, or just make the original trailer twice as long (to skip debate about the effects of the gap). It's longer. Drag coefficient doesn't decrease, if anything it will increase, simply due to the increase in surface area. The only decrease you'll see with a bigger overall length is if you stick an aero cap on the back end to minimize separation of the flow off the back.

Granted drag coefficient isn't everything, however, I suspect that, while the net drag from the tractor and 1st trailer may get worse, the drag both is only a little more than that of just one.

 

[mongo]

Highly unlikely.

Unlikely doesn't mean impossible. I wrote "can", not "does".

It only helps when it's longer in order to incorporate a gradual/smooth tear-drop tail.

Exactly, and the Cybertruck rear is tapered.

Take an 18-wheeler semi tractor/trailer. Now add on an additional trailer, or just make the original trailer twice as long (to skip debate about the effects of the gap). It's longer. Drag coefficient doesn't decrease, if anything it will increase, simply due to the increase in surface area. The only decrease you'll see with a bigger overall length is if you stick an aero cap on the back end to minimize separation of the flow off the back.

Which is a brick and not very representative of the vehicle being discussed.

Cybertruck is wider and higher (both in total height and vertical crossection), which directly increase drag (for constant Cd).
The Cd value itself depends on the crossection plus overall shape. A shorter wheelbase Cybertruck with constant width and cabin height would require steeper front and rear angles which would make iitless tapered, more brickish, and increase the Cd.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679858605032370177

No passthrough. No air con in vault.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679858605032370177

No passthrough. No air con in vault.

meh... so not adding anything in addition to the F150 Lightning but well behind RAM EV / Silverado EV which offer pass through from bed to cab or the Rivian which has a gear tunnel .... cant wait to see the frunk size...

 

[kpanda17]

When the CT gets here and economy sentiment has normalized, Tesla should move the X even more high end, establish an bigger gap in cost than $20K

 

[Eric9610]

Everyone keeps forgetting the CT was priced the same as the Y when announced. The YLR is close to the same price when launched today... Do I think it will be priced like the announcement, no but I think they want to stick it to everyone, and Tesla has reduced costing in ways we don't know on the CT. I can see the CT dual motor 340miles range starting at $65k. Costing on raw materials is at an all time low. We also don't know if Tesla is going to 48v on the CT along with improved battery pack configuration reducing cable costing. If they accomplish these basic things the price will be lower than many think.

Also related to the comment about people switching from Y, S, X to a CT I don't see it unless they picked those models as a gap filler for a CT. The CT is going to be HUGE in size. I have 2 friends that wanted a CT (put a res in on day 1) got a Y and went to look at the CT in person and canceled the order...Specifically cited size as too big.

 

[Eric9610]

When the CT gets here and economy sentiment has normalized, Tesla should move the X even more high end, establish an bigger gap in cost than $20K

No one is cross shopping a CT and X...

 

[uscbucsfan]

Everyone keeps forgetting the CT was priced the same as the Y when announced. The YLR is close to the same price when launched today... Do I think it will be priced like the announcement, no but I think they want to stick it to everyone, and Tesla has reduced costing in ways we don't know on the CT. I can see the CT dual motor 340miles range starting at $65k. Costing on raw materials is at an all time low. We also don't know if Tesla is going to 48v on the CT along with improved battery pack configuration reducing cable costing. If they accomplish these basic things the price will be lower than many think.

Also related to the comment about people switching from Y, S, X to a CT I don't see it unless they picked those models as a gap filler for a CT. The CT is going to be HUGE in size. I have 2 friends that wanted a CT (put a res in on day 1) got a Y and went to look at the CT in person and canceled the order...Specifically cited size as too big.

Huge is relative. It will be about the same exterior dimensions (a bit shorter) as the F150. The newer prototypes are smaller than the original.