Latest "Finalize your order" date

[Brian H]

And there will most likely be some slowdown due to reduced schedules for the holidays (last week of Dec.).

RU mad? They'll be pushing flat-out trying to crank up the # as high as possible. Xmas comes every year; the first calendar year of Fremont S-production only happens once!

 

[VolkerP]

Say R113 got delivered on 11/1 and came after all Canadian Sigs, so you'd have ~1350 Sigs/Founders/Roadsters delivered at that point. You've now got 9 weeks until the year end. At full 20k/year run rate, that's 385 cars/week * 9 weeks ~= 3450 cars. Plus the previous 1350 is ~4800.

There is a time period between producing R113 and delivering R113. If it is 3 days that would make up for 385/5*3=231 cars. Add this to 4800 and we arrive at 5021 cars produced in 2012.

 

[ggr]

I didn't want to be the one who broke news of early delivery delays, but it's clearly out there now, so here's a data point. We are SSL#32. The delivery date on the MVPA is/was July 15, last Sunday. We have not been contacted for the "30 days out" delivery details, and the representative I contacted said no more than "sometime in August". His reason was that the executives are literally inspecting every car themselves, to make sure each one is of high quality, and of course tweaking the production until they all come out that way. It's very disappointing, of course, to have it delayed like this, but I am in there for the long haul. I remember the various traumas waiting for the Roadster, first when it wasn't yet delivered, and later when it had a mysterious intermittent problem that took ages to fix. It only takes a few minutes to fall back in love. It's a WILD RIDE.

 

[jomo25]

RU mad? They'll be pushing flat-out trying to crank up the # as high as possible. Xmas comes every year; the first calendar year of Fremont S-production only happens once!

Nope, just noting another factor wrt the potential ramp and target for 2012 production/deliveries. As an investor, it certainly would indicate that the 5000 target (and potentially Q1 profitability target) is at risk. Sure they can still hit them, but it'll be a stretch. Unless there was a lot of slack/contingency built into the schedule, there is an impact to these (well-intentioned and long-term appropriate) delays.

 

[Citizen-T]

Nope, just noting another factor wrt the potential ramp and target for 2012 production/deliveries. As an investor, it certainly would indicate that the 5000 target (and potentially Q1 profitability target) is at risk. Sure they can still hit them, but it'll be a stretch. Unless there was a lot of slack/contingency built into the schedule, there is an impact to these (well-intentioned and long-term appropriate) delays.

Profitability is expected sometime in 2013, not in Q1. Don't go raising the bar any higher, it is plenty high enough thank you.

 

[jomo25]

Hmm, I thought I read somewhere that profitability was at 8000 units, which would have been in Q1. But I could be mistaken.

 

[Citizen-T]

Hmm, I thought I read somewhere that profitability was at 8000 units, which would have been in Q1. But I could be mistaken.

Right, break-even on the Model S is around 8k/year. Sorry, I was referring to Tesla actually posting a profit during earnings. Slightly different.

 

[MikeK]

I didn't want to be the one who broke news of early delivery delays, but it's clearly out there now, so here's a data point. We are SSL#32. The delivery date on the MVPA is/was July 15, last Sunday. We have not been contacted for the "30 days out" delivery details, and the representative I contacted said no more than "sometime in August". His reason was that the executives are literally inspecting every car themselves, to make sure each one is of high quality, and of course tweaking the production until they all come out that way. It's very disappointing, of course, to have it delayed like this, but I am in there for the long haul. I remember the various traumas waiting for the Roadster, first when it wasn't yet delivered, and later when it had a mysterious intermittent problem that took ages to fix. It only takes a few minutes to fall back in love. It's a WILD RIDE.

Yeah, I'll be disappointed if my car is delayed too, but I will be far more disappointed if it's not "right". Tesla should ship their first cars with high quality. Shipping a great car a little late will have far less effect on their reputation than shipping imperfect cars on time.

 

[jomo25]

Right, break-even on the Model S is around 8k/year. Sorry, I was referring to Tesla actually posting a profit during earnings. Slightly different.

Sorry, that's what I meant. For the Model S. Which of course would go a long way towards profitability for Tesla overall as well. At least it would be tangible evidence that they can become profitable based on their main purpose: selling cars.

Anyways, the point remains. I agree delivering quality late is better than problematic cars on time. But the assumption made by investors/public when the targets were given is that of quality products. So, falling short on the count, date, or quality still amounts to a miss of (perhaps optimistic) estimates.

 

[Citizen-T]

Sorry, that's what I meant. For the Model S. Which of course would go a long way towards profitability for Tesla overall as well. At least it would be tangible evidence that they can become profitable based on their main purpose: selling cars.

Anyways, the point remains. I agree delivering quality late is better than problematic cars on time. But the assumption made by investors/public when the targets were given is that of quality products. So, falling short on the count, date, or quality still amounts to a miss of (perhaps optimistic) estimates.

Maybe for some, but a lot of the analysts have set their price targets based on a thesis that Tesla doesn't make its projections. One in particular that I am thinking of came up with a $45 price target by factoring in only like 3k cars this year and 12k next year or something like that.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Today, July 18th 2012, at 9:30am I got my Pre-Delivery MVPA for Signature 1136. We signed the MVPA the night before last. Late yesterday afternoon I got a note that they were finalizing the paperwork.

The stated delivery date is October, which is the delivery date I was originally anticipating.

I was wondering if my delivery date might get pushed out after hearing the delay rumors but it looks like they will be able to make all the tweaks mentioned in the Get Amped blog without much impact on the later Sigs. Maybe a few of the early ones might come a little later than originally planned so that all the Production Sigs come out with all the same features and adjustments. That’s my theory.

Here’s the blog about the adjustments to the Production vehicles:
Get Amped Tour: News from the Road | Blog | Tesla Motors

 

[AnOutsider]

Today, July 18th 2012, at 9:30am I got my Pre-Delivery MVPA for Signature 1136. We signed the MVPA the night before last. Late yesterday afternoon I got a note that they were finalizing the paperwork.

The stated delivery date is October, which is the delivery date I was originally anticipating.

I was wondering if my delivery date might get pushed out after hearing the delay rumors but it looks like they will be able to make all the tweaks mentioned in the Get Amped blog without much impact on the later Sigs. Maybe a few of the early ones might come a little later than originally planned so that all the Production Sigs come out with all the same features and adjustments. That’s my theory.

Here’s the blog about the adjustments to the Production vehicles:
Get Amped Tour: News from the Road | Blog | Tesla Motors

love the username BTW

 

[Beavis]

I just traded emails with my Product Specialist and he said that I am still looking at September delivery.

 

[strider]

Went away from the Blue (that would have gone with your Roadster), strider?!

Yes. The blue that is on the cars is MUCH darker than the Roadster and the samples they have in the stores. Wife and I had to really struggle to tell blue from black at the drive events so she decided to go w/ the grey. But silver wheels as grey on grey looks too masculine for her.

 

[v12 to 12v]

love the username BTW

Thanks! I have to tell you that the Tesla Model S drives like a V-12. The Model S is about the same size and weight of the V-12 I have now.

When I test drove Tesla the Model S it didn't take any getting used to because of the re-gen. I had a hard time letting go of my V-12 addiction. I could not get used to the newer cars that coasted and didn't respond when you took your foot off the gas so I was having trouble finding a new car I liked.

Tesla got it right if you like a high performance drive. It's responsive, smooth, strong and powerful. The ride is awesome as well.

 

[sp4rk]

How about the daily, single deliveries that are happening as we speak?

Is anyone surprised that we've not heard a sole from anyone yet?

After the first 10 deliveries ... then what is the batting order?

Founders, Prior Roadsters, ???, when do S Sigs start?

 

[joefee]

How about the daily, single deliveries that are happening as we speak?

Is anyone surprised that we've not heard a sole from anyone yet?

After the first 10 deliveries ... then what is the batting order?

Founders, Prior Roadsters, ???, when do S Sigs start?

We are not going to get much until the earnings call (in a few weeks). I think Elon will surprise to the up side with something like " We will produce 6000 cars in 2012 and all Sigs will be built (not delivered) by Sept 28 (the day I expect to get mine!)." This will put the "production issues" to bed.

 

[Discoducky]

We are not going to get much until the earnings call (in a few weeks). I think Elon will surprise to the up side with something like " We will produce 6000 cars in 2012 and all Sigs will be built (not delivered) by Sept 28 (the day I expect to get mine!)." This will put the "production issues" to bed.

If Elon were to say that I would expect the stock to hit $40. That would be a great day indeed!

 

[Spurkey]

The blue that is on the cars is MUCH darker than the Roadster and the samples they have in the stores.

I noticed that too, I'm glad I got to see it in person because that had originally been my first choice. The Dolphin Grey is my second choice, I'll have the calipers painted in blue in order to satisfy my 'Blue' urge.

 

[JRod0802]

Just thought it would be worth linking this here:

Analyst: Tesla cuts 3rd quarter Model S production to 500