Just got an ballpark estimate for my model 3 timeline

[Hixson]

Hey guys just thought Id post about a phone call I just received. I got a call from my nearest Tesla showroom to discuss my model 3 reservation made back in April 2017. (I know that a reservation that late puts me near the last to be delivered as I was probably near the 400,000 mark). The lady I spoke with was great and knew her information, but she gave me an estimated timeline of 18-24 months before delivery of my model 3 - before she tried to get me to come in and try some CPO model S.

I have two thoughts on this:

1 - didn't we just see a tweet that said "new reservations" should expect it to be 2019 before delivery? I figured an April reservation could feasibly see delivery near the last quarter of 2018. Im surprised she was able to throw out a timeline like that, if they can ramp up to their production goal in 2018 wouldn't it make sense that reservations of around 400,000 should have no issue being filled in 2018? Thoughts are appreciated.

2 - Im a salesman trainee for a huge construction equipment dealer so Im kind of catching the drift that maybe shes trying to get me to panic and impulse buy a CPO model S. Throwing out a "potential delivery could take 24 months from now" sounds like they might be anti-selling on this whole wait for my model 3 to be ready for design. You guys think that's likely, or does a June 2019 delivery date seem reasonable for a reservation made April 2017?

 

[kzod]

Considering Elon Musk doesn't know when your car will REALLY be delivered, do you think that she does? Her estimate is very possible, but who knows? The call was placed in order to sell you a CPO instead. If you like a model S, you could probably get a early pre-autopilot for about the same price as a Model 3.

 

[arjay]

The correct answer is No. 2.

 

[Big-T]

From what I've read on these forums over the last year, employees are sometimes less knowledgeable than the forum members here and experiences can vary quite a bit from store to store.

I'd just hang tight for next month and see how things shake out. The configurator should be open by then along with general timelines.

 

[eSpiritIV]

yes antiselling mode for now!

 

[dsvick]

I agree, option 2 for the win.

I'm sure she was deliberately giving you a worst case scenario in order to get you in to look at a model S. On the other hand, if the most optimistic estimates on the number of reservations is right it could easily put you into 2019, especially if the ramp up doesn't go perfectly.

 

[McRat]

I vote option 3.

How many reservation holders will convert to firm orders once all the information about the initial version is released? Nobody has any idea yet. It depends on options, pricing, competition from CPO MS's and other makes, and how many people will simply change their minds.

She gave you the number based on how far you are back and assuming most people convert to a sale. If conversion rate is high, but delivery schedule is lagging, it will be longer. If scheduling is according to plan, but 1/2 the people fail to convert, 12 months tops.

So 12 months to 36 months.

 

[Hixson]

I agree with the sentiment in here - option 2 is the likely reason for the phone call and timeline. I respect her effort, shes trying to move CPO MS's and she really didn't feed any false info - she's just leaning towards a worst case scenario to make a CPO sounds more attractive.

I thought it was pretty funny though, she asked what I was currently driving and I told her it was 2015 Camaro. Shes like "ooh a Camaro is bigger than a model 3, have you ever thought about purchasing a model x?" It was right about then that I told her "listen lady, love you guys but there's 0% chance your selling me a $100,000 vehicle so lets call it good right here" lol

 

[McRat]

I agree with the sentiment in here - option 2 is the likely reason for the phone call and timeline. I respect her effort, shes trying to move CPO MS's and she really didn't feed any false info - she's just leaning towards a worst case scenario to make a CPO sounds more attractive.

I thought it was pretty funny though, she asked what I was currently driving and I told her it was 2015 Camaro. Shes like "ooh a Camaro is bigger than a model 3, have you ever thought about purchasing a model x?" It was right about then that I told her "listen lady, love you guys but there's 0% chance your selling me a $100,000 vehicle so lets call it good right here" lol

There are some really fun things you can do in a Camaro. But sitting in the back seats is not one of them. They are 2+2 coupes, not 5 passenger cars.

 

[Hixson]

There are some really fun things you can do in a Camaro. But sitting in the back seats is not one of them. They are 2+2 coupes, not 5 passenger cars.

Amen to that! love my Camaro and will keep it until I get the M3 but its definitely not a car that can entertain more than myself and one unlucky passenger. Works for now, beings as im only mid 20s and don't have a family yet. This whole model 3 obsession started when I had that frustrating conversation with my fiancé that went "what happens when we have kids? Are they just going to sit on our laps? Time to start thinking about selling the Camaro..."

model 3 was the best compromise I could make lol

 

[McRat]

Amen to that! love my Camaro and will keep it until I get the M3 but its definitely not a car that can entertain more than myself and one unlucky passenger. Works for now, beings as im only mid 20s and don't have a family yet. This whole model 3 obsession started when I had that frustrating conversation with my fiancé that went "what happens when we have kids? Are they just going to sit on our laps? Time to start thinking about selling the Camaro..."

model 3 was the best compromise I could make lol

You will most likely fall in love the Model 3. EVs have the best powertrains for daily use. It's hard to go back to ICE vehicles once you spend some significant seat time in a EV. Love my ICE sport cars on the track, but for daily driving, an EV really spoils you.

 

[azred]

If she guessed 18-24 months, I am confused by your concern. 18 months would be late 2018 or early 2019. Unless tens of thousands cancel reservations I can't imagine how you'll get a car before then. And that assumes Tesla can really ramp up as fast as they estimate for 2018. Does anyone really believe their most optimistic projections are also most likely? While I think it is encouraging that Tesla said last week they will be producing cars next month, who knows what that means in terms of numbers produced. Based on Tesla's past timeline projections skepticism is warranted.

I am a current owner and first day model 3 waiting line reservation in Arizona, so I should be fairly near the top after the first batch to Califonia. Yet I'll be very surprised if I see my car this year. That will mean I will have waited more than a year and a half even though I stood in line to be an early owner. So a two year wait for an April 2017 reservation sounds about right to me.

 

[vigge50]

I don't believe that here estimates is so wrong, if not Elon is lying to all his investors we know that Tesla had about 370k reservation after a month and that there is still new reservation going in. Even if some have drop of they maybe already have passed 500k reservations wish means that they can have over 300k reservations that will go to sales. Lets say that they sell 20k this year and then have an average of 7500/week in 2018 it will mean that by the end of 2018 they will have sold 410k then. 18 to 24 month means december 2018-June 2019 wish I see full reasonable

 

[Runt8]

I vote option 3.

How many reservation holders will convert to firm orders once all the information about the initial version is released? Nobody has any idea yet. It depends on options, pricing, competition from CPO MS's and other makes, and how many people will simply change their minds.

She gave you the number based on how far you are back and assuming most people convert to a sale. If conversion rate is high, but delivery schedule is lagging, it will be longer. If scheduling is according to plan, but 1/2 the people fail to convert, 12 months tops.

So 12 months to 36 months.

Not to mention that US deliveries are going to be prioritized, and west to east coast. No one outside of Tesla knows how that's going to work. It's like A + B / C * D ^ X = Months, and A, B, C, D, and X are unknown. Good luck coming up with anything sensible.

 

[jchau]

I had a tesla showroom employee tell me the federal EV tax would never run out. They don't know anything

 

[whitex]

It's not anti-selling, it's up-selling. It's not as if she recommended the OP go buy a Bolt.

 

[timk225]

Tesla will be pimping the Model S and X hard until at least the end of June, and downplaying the 3, they've got to have a good quarter in sales numbers to keep the stock price up!

 

[patrick40363]

yes antiselling mode for now!

It is called up-selling.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Hey guys just thought Id post about a phone call I just received. I got a call from my nearest Tesla showroom to discuss my model 3 reservation made back in April 2017. (I know that a reservation that late puts me near the last to be delivered as I was probably near the 400,000 mark). The lady I spoke with was great and knew her information, but she gave me an estimated timeline of 18-24 months before delivery of my model 3 - before she tried to get me to come in and try some CPO model S.

I have two thoughts on this:

1 - didn't we just see a tweet that said "new reservations" should expect it to be 2019 before delivery? I figured an April reservation could feasibly see delivery near the last quarter of 2018. Im surprised she was able to throw out a timeline like that, if they can ramp up to their production goal in 2018 wouldn't it make sense that reservations of around 400,000 should have no issue being filled in 2018? Thoughts are appreciated.

2 - Im a salesman trainee for a huge construction equipment dealer so Im kind of catching the drift that maybe shes trying to get me to panic and impulse buy a CPO model S. Throwing out a "potential delivery could take 24 months from now" sounds like they might be anti-selling on this whole wait for my model 3 to be ready for design. You guys think that's likely, or does a June 2019 delivery date seem reasonable for a reservation made April 2017?

How would she know delivery estimates when neither Elon nor Tesla has posted anything?

10K cars per week gets all 400k reservations built in 10 months.

Tesla Plans Model 3 Electric Car Production From July -- And More Gigafactories

 

[stopcrazypp]

How would she know delivery estimates when neither Elon nor Tesla has posted anything?

10K cars per week gets all 400k reservations built in 10 months.

Tesla Plans Model 3 Electric Car Production From July -- And More Gigafactories

10k per week average is not a realistic ramp rate. The goal is 5k per week some time in 2017 and up to 10k per week some time in 2018. The average will be much lower than 10k.