True too, and, for the most part, Tesla has done right by the early folks with retrofits (where's my visors!)
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I'm starting to think the X still isn't ready...
- Thread starter Fiver
- Start date
True too, and, for the most part, Tesla has done right by the early folks with retrofits (where's my visors!)
Well, not exactly. They showcased few handbuilt cars which they handed to people, who are big investors in Tesla. Those people have every incentive to show that everything goes smoothly. I claim that they have not yet made any actual customer deliveries.
Bingo. It's what I been predicting for months (over at SA) in comments: The Model X "launch" will most likely be a "photo op" PR operation for investors and the media.
This is what they needed in terms of PR to make the latest deadline after so many prior delays: End of 2013, then early 2014, then late 2014, then "spring 2015" and now finally "end of Q3 2015".
I don't think they can/will ramp up volume production before Q1 2016.
And I don't think the lower-priced versions will ship to consumers before 2017 (maybe the 90 kWh battery-version will remain the basic battery variant forever, resulting in a base price of $90-100k with a few options).
PS: It looks like the Greencarreports leaks were spot on: Tesla Delivery Goal Fell Due To Slower Model X Production Ramp: Sources
Keep in mind that the X is significantly based on the S, so while there have been a ton of improvements on the S over the years, a large number of those will roll right into the X. Also keep in mind that Tesla is a significantly more mature company and should have learned a ton of the last 3 years. Therefore while it wouldn't suprise me if there aren't some changes going forward, I would expect them to be nearly as profound as the ones that happened on the S in the first year or two.
This is true. The founders cars were paid for, but they are certainly not 'true' customer cars. From where I sit, the Q3 deadline was missed. I might be inclined to call it a win if the Sigs were actually moving through the queue, but all evidence I've seen says we got founder deliveries and Sig configurations in Q3, but likely no actual Sig deliveries for at least a few more weeks. Further, we still don't even have the full specifications/pricing of the car. (The Model X page's 'specs' section is a feature list. This is a specs list.)
I get why Tesla's handling this the way they are, and I don't even disagree that this is the right way to proceed if they aren't confident in being able to ramp more quickly. Get it right. But let's call a spade a spade.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yes, November. But Q3 deliveries get reported in the next day or so. I'm expecting a beat vs guidance.
I think the test rides were done in the Founders' cars that had ostensibly just been delivered.
This goes along with the thought that they have a very limited number of "finished" vehicles available right now.
Kudos to the "Founders", including Elon, for letting depositors go over their own personal vehicles this early instead of waiting until they have enough "VP" press/demo cars to use for such purposes.
This goes along with the thought that they have a very limited number of "finished" vehicles available right now.
Kudos to the "Founders", including Elon, for letting depositors go over their own personal vehicles this early instead of waiting until they have enough "VP" press/demo cars to use for such purposes.
Jgdixon
Active Member
I was at the plant for the tour on Wednesday. There were no X's on the line. We saw one body in a jig and a finished unit beside the Model S line being used for training. That's it.
See this is kind of my point. The "founders cars" were hand built, and then also used for test rides. I didn't see a founder drive their car off stage, and the word was that while people got rides, no one besides tesla staff actually drove the vehicles. Who else but "founders" would be willing to go along with this staged event? I'm willing to bet they don't actually even have their vehicles today.
Basically Tesla hand built 6 production candidates and "delivered" them. When the first actual signature cars are released we'll get an actual idea of how far along this car is. Who knows when that will be.
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But there's a big difference in the way they are handling the X vs. the S. For the S, we had tons of information even before the first delivery, and we were taking test drives the day after the first deliveries. Tesla has not only been cagey about the X before deliveries, but they continue to be cagey, IMO.
Kalud
Active Member
At least Founder VIN#2 (Steve Jurvetson (@dfjsteve) | Twitter) is on a roadtrip with Bubba Murarka (@bubbam) | Twitter.
aesculus
Still Trying to Figure This All Out
I have come to the same conclusion that the X is not ready yet for me (it probably is for many others though and that is great that it gets out there for it to be improved when/if it is ready for me). I pretty much new that going in so I waited for a long while before making my reservation. I thought I had waited until I felt we had enough information on the car and I could see that progress was being made (via the features that showed up on the S over the last several months). However what I experienced at the event both supported my decision on the car and also gave me more reservation to wait.
I usually buy my cars and keep them for a long time. I like innovation and was one of the first to by a Mazda with a Wankel rotary engine and the last car I bought was an 2001 Acura MDX. With the Acura I put a reservation down before they even showed the first car (early 2000) and got one of the earliest deliveries. At the time it was a game changer in the SUV world.
I feel the same about the Model X but it does not yet pass the test for purchase. I will either defer or after doing the math, I may end up leasing it for 2/3 years while my wish list gets dealt with or passed by. I may also discover during that time new things that are important or items I thought were important I no longer care about. But since I want to keep the Model X for probably two decades (its a million mile car), I need it right before I purchase it for keeps.
Here is my wish list:
This list applies mostly to me and probably won't be of concern to many others, especially their initial target group, but are necessary for it to be my "keeper" car.
I usually buy my cars and keep them for a long time. I like innovation and was one of the first to by a Mazda with a Wankel rotary engine and the last car I bought was an 2001 Acura MDX. With the Acura I put a reservation down before they even showed the first car (early 2000) and got one of the earliest deliveries. At the time it was a game changer in the SUV world.
I feel the same about the Model X but it does not yet pass the test for purchase. I will either defer or after doing the math, I may end up leasing it for 2/3 years while my wish list gets dealt with or passed by. I may also discover during that time new things that are important or items I thought were important I no longer care about. But since I want to keep the Model X for probably two decades (its a million mile car), I need it right before I purchase it for keeps.
Here is my wish list:
- Reclining/folding second row seats
- Black plastic back on seats was ugly and will get damaged easily - looked cheap
- Range is limited. Needs to be closer to 300 miles
- Panoramic roof needs electrochromatic tinting - from clear to opaque
- 12 VDC outlets in Frunk/Trunk for accessories like coolers
- Grab handles
- Rear view cameras to supplement and eventually replace side mirrors
- Autopilot still needs time to develop - could require hw changes
This list applies mostly to me and probably won't be of concern to many others, especially their initial target group, but are necessary for it to be my "keeper" car.
Yes, I think we agree on that. But I think the Model X is even less ready than the Model S was at this point.
At the depositor "ride" event (even though I think Elon had said "drive"), yes, only Telsa drivers... But, earlier in the day, I think they let some reporters drive them.
These were definitely complete, functional vehicles. I would guess that the hurdles now are related to reliability, and ability to ramp up production.
are they advertising where and when they will be stopping at superchargers so people can meet and greet them and the Model X?
strider
Active Member
Like AO said, this is EXACTLY what they did w/ Model S. Hand-built Founders cars were delivered to make a "customer-shipped" deadline and then a multi-month wait until Sig cars were delivered. Same old Tesla. They have a huge lead on the industry but they continue to make the same mistakes over and over again. If/when they have any decent competition this will bite them in the ass.
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And by "ramp up production" you mean, "actually built on the line by the robots."
I think it's telling that they haven't even given estimated delivery dates to the Signature buyers yet. For Model S, they were able to give them estimates even though it was 3+ months out. If Tesla knew they were going to be building and delivering Signature Model Xs in the next month they would have informed buyers by now. Other than the goal of delivering all U.S. Signatures this year, the timeline and ramp up is unclear. It could be they don't even start building anything else until December. Meanwhile, Model S sales must continue to grow to fill the void, so they limit Model X information and keep the price point high in order to push buyers towards Model S.
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