My personal belief is that these cars will be easily worth north of 100k, but it will take a while, possibly
a very long while. They may have to get over a dip from being associated with "old" technology (similar to what ecarfan mentioned) before being recognized for their significant place in history which when I believe the price will rise rapidly.
Here is a roughly comparable example that I have personal experience with:
From 1948 to 1965, Porsche produced various iterations of their 356 model: a 4 cylinder, air-cooled, 2+2 sports car (with a frunk!
.
It was replaced with the 911 model which debuted in 1964 (in America) which had 6 cylinders, still air-cooled, a more modern body style and numerous improvements. It also cost about 50% more (sound familiar?) which shocked the Porsche faithful, but they got over it.
Once the 911 went on sale, 356 values plummeted. Within five years you could get a 356 in decent shape for less than a quarter of their original price, and by the 80’s you could buy one for a hundred bucks (compared to as much as $4,000 when new). Almost no one wanted them. They were considered ancient history.
And then in the 90’s, 356 values started to edge up. Today a decent example will cost you at least $60,000 and nicely restored cars are over $100,000, with the rarer versions well over that.
But it took over 40 years for that appreciation to occur. Other vintage Porsche models, like the 70’s 914 and later the 924 as well as the 80’s 928 have not fared nearly as well.
I believe the 356 model rose in value because it represented the genesis of Porsche, a company which, after some near death experiences, became very successful and widely admired. One could argue that the “original” Roadster will always represent the genesis of Tesla, and that seems obvious. I believe that Tesla will be a very successful company. But how long will it take for values to significantly increase? There is no way to know the answer to that question. And there is no guarantee that they ever will.
The Roadster faces an additional challenge: it is likely that over time some parts will become increasingly hard to come by. A decade or so from now, Tesla is under no obligation to provide parts or service. The number of original Roadsters that will still be on the road by then will be tiny so that aftermarket parts suppliers are very unlikely to be interested in producing replacement parts. Repairing some aspects of a Roadster a decade or two in the future — let along 40 years on — will be difficult in the same way that trying to keep an early 80’s PC running is now: there won’t be many people around who remember how they worked!
In contrast, Porsche enthusiasts 20 years ago who set out to restore a vintage 356 model had a relatively easier time of it: they were working on an internal combustion engine that every mechanic understood the basic principles of operation of, the transmission had gears much like modern transmissions, there were still people around who knew how a carburetor worked, and so on. It was a 100% mechanical car: you could take it apart down to the last bolt and see how it worked by direct inspection.
As a Roadster owner it is in my own self-interest to argue that the car is going to soon be a valuable “collector’s classic” vehicle and greatly increase in value. But I am far from certain that will be the case.
p.s. I fully expect vintage computer enthusiasts to take umbrage over my description of the difficulties in operating their MS-DOS 1.0 machines today. ;-)
