Genius level IQ people. Explain what Tesla is doing!?!

[caskater47]

A new ICE competitor can use a gas station that every ICE car before it. What is a new EV going to do? Take a look at the IPace. It's great for parading to pick up kids at school, go to soccer practice or visit grandma in the next city over. THATS IT.

I think your emotions are overriding the logic you no doubt posses.

True. Without a supercharger network a competitor is going to have a hard time. So maybe in five years once VW builds out theirs. It'll depend on how quickly the competitor wants to go and possible govt subsidies. A universal super charging network would be a boon for the whole industry.

 

[Knightshade]

A new ICE competitor can use a gas station that every ICE car that proceeded it did. What is a new EV going to do? Take a look at the IPace. It's great for parading to pick up kids at school, go to soccer practice or visit grandma in the next city over. THATS IT.

Logic tells us the average american only drives about 30 miles a day...(and that's the mean, the median is only about 10 miles a day)

Don't get me wrong, for the tiny % that drive 10-20 times more than average with any frequency, Tesla is about the only option that makes sense.

But for the vast majority of the population a non-tesla EV with 200-300 miles of range is not, at all, an issue if it's otherwise competitive and/or better in some way.

 

[MXWing]

Logic tells us the average american only drives about 30 miles a day...(and that's the mean, the median is only about 10 miles a day)

Don't get me wrong, for the tiny % that drive 10-20 times more than average with any frequency, Tesla is about the only option that makes sense.

But for the vast majority of the population a non-tesla EV with 200-300 miles of range is not, at all, an issue if it's otherwise competitive and/or better in some way.

While you are right you are making an assumption that everyone who has a Tesla has a backup car of some sort.

While most do, not everyone does. Not everyone wants a backup car or can only have one car.

I am “forced” to use a supercharger maybe 6 times a year. Forced meaning I run out of range.

Not often was it used but the option allows me to be a Tesla only household if I desired.

If an iPace family needed to seat 6 or 7, they also own a Minivan or a large SUV

I can seat six in my X and 2-3 a year I can use a trailer on the X if I need to have the carrying capacity of a Tahoe.

The SC is an insurmountable advantage for the present. In the event Volkswagen say matches today’s network, how will Tesla be in 5 years? Maybe double the size and v4 charging or v5 charging.

We are a two Tesla and a Volt family. Volt is for the ice backup I planned years ago.

Volt isn’t needed. A Model 3 or a Model Y can replace that and no need for another ice anything car. That’s the power of Tesla.

 

[pscarroll]

Logic tells us the average american only drives about 30 miles a day...(and that's the mean, the median is only about 10 miles a day)

Don't get me wrong, for the tiny % that drive 10-20 times more than average with any frequency, Tesla is about the only option that makes sense.

But for the vast majority of the population a non-tesla EV with 200-300 miles of range is not, at all, an issue if it's otherwise competitive and/or better in some way.

Then there is no point getting an EV with a large range, it's been more economical to get something with like 100 miles ranger and then rent or own a second fossil fuel car. Paying for all that battery is for taking long distance trips, for replacing a regular vehicle. Tesla's secret sauce is their charging network, it's what makes it work, it's really the major reason I bought a Tesla.

 

[byeLT4]

We know the 3 is solid but the price increase has quieted the chatter of a refresh and/or newer capacity of the S/X. Maybe it won't happen soon but if it does what a good way to throw us off the scent.....

 

[MrAustraliaTax]

Also is that a former employee?

A former contractor.

The image of 30,000 people in fear everyday of Elon just seems ridiculous.

Given no one anywhere within Tesla appears to have the ability to make any sort of decision about anything meaningful, this may well prove to be closer to the truth than you think.

 

[jerry33]

Based on some insider information from someone involved in the Model X car seat design/manufacture + other evidence, here's how Elon works:

1. Elon makes a seemingly impossible demand on a seemingly impossible timeline, seemingly on a whim.
2. Forthright contractor or employee points out why his demand is impossible.
3. Elon fires said contractor/employee and gets another one who says the impossible is possible.
4. Failure occurs. Unfortunately, the good people are now long gone leaving only the sycophants.
5. Repeat

Sometimes this chaotic style results in a win:
eg SpaceX landing rockets on a floating platform

Mostly it results in chaos:
eg Model X delays due to falcon wing door issues
eg Model 3 ramp delays due to failure of the "alien dreadnaught" "machine building the machine" stuff that didn't work.
eg Elon vs SEC
eg Elon vs NHSTA
eg AutoPilot 2 vs AutoPilot 1 debacle and the whole fake FSD video farce
eg parts debacles
eg service debacles
eg closing stores/opening stores farce
eg the unusually high turnover of senior staff at Tesla

This whole argument misses the point.

Progress is not made unless new things are tried. New things often fail, but the one that succeeds often more than eclipses the failures. Obviously, you don't put people who do not support the project in charge of running the project. The alternative is a GM that goes bankrupt, or a Ford that has to borrow $5B to stay afloat. Compare this to Tesla that got a $500M loan, from the same program Ford did, which they paid back (Ford has not, and probably never will pay back the $5B).

 

[jerry33]

Logic tells us the average american only drives about 30 miles a day...(and that's the mean, the median is only about 10 miles a day)

Don't get me wrong, for the tiny % that drive 10-20 times more than average with any frequency, Tesla is about the only option that makes sense.

But for the vast majority of the population a non-tesla EV with 200-300 miles of range is not, at all, an issue if it's otherwise competitive and/or better in some way.

Except when there is a power outage, or you can't drive to the airport and back without stopping to charge, or you can't take a day trip on the weekend, or you can't visit Grandma. A short range EV is fine as a second car that only drives to work and the grocery store. It's not fine for anything else. It does not replace a first car, only a second car, and because most people's second car is the older first car, the market is limited to those who add a driver (in which case that driver gets the older first car), wrecked the first or second car (don't ask), or have a first car that is starting to have too many mechanical issues.

 

[MrAustraliaTax]

Progress is not made unless new things are tried.

Such as:
"All stores - CLOSED. Everyone - FIRED."

One week later
"Just joking, LOL."

Very trying indeed.

 

[Knightshade]

Then there is no point getting an EV with a large range, it's been more economical to get something with like 100 miles ranger and then rent or own a second fossil fuel car

For most Americans, yes, that's absolutely correct, since they drive between 10-30 miles a day generally.

See also every Leaf owner in the world for example.

T
Paying for all that battery is for taking long distance trips, for replacing a regular vehicle. Tesla's secret sauce is their charging network, it's what makes it work, it's really the major reason I bought a Tesla.

Ok. But most people don't take a lot of long trips. If they did the average would be a lot higher.

Except when there is a power outage, or you can't drive to the airport and back without stopping to charge

Can't speak for you- I can get to the airport and back in a 1st gen leaf...I can do it like 5-10 times in a Tesla.

And there's charging near the airport (that even a non-tesla can use too)

Again if you're way outside the norm/average american and have a 100 mile one way trip to an airport with no chargers by all means, Tesla is the only EV for you.

, or you can't take a day trip on the weekend, or you can't visit Grandma.

Again- most people rarely do this.

If you rarely do this then it's massively cheaper to just rent a car for the couple of roadtrips a year than spend many thousands of dollars (plus interest if financing) to get an EV that has a bunch of extra range/charging options you don't use 99% of the time.

A short range EV is fine as a second car that only drives to work and the grocery store. It's not fine for anything else. It does not replace a first car

I mean, except it demonstrably does, for the majority of the US population who only rarely, if ever, take long trips.

If you're not in that majority this doesn't apply to you. Not sure why you seem to need to defend a group you're not even in?

While you are right you are making an assumption that everyone who has a Tesla has a backup car of some sort.

No, I'm not.

I'm assuming most people drive short enough distances they don't need one. For the folks who drive 10-30 miles a day on average ANY ev is fine, and no superchargers needed.

While most do, not everyone does. Not everyone wants a backup car or can only have one car.

And most again don't need one.

Though, that said, the average household DOES have ~2 cars- so again folks who don't are much more the exception than the rule.

My point is MOST folks are just fine with the SR tesla (or a bolt, or leaf, or any EV out there anymore). For the uncommon exceptions to those facts there's the longer range Teslas with the SC network-but such folks are factually a minority of drivers in the US.

I am “forced” to use a supercharger maybe 6 times a year. Forced meaning I run out of range.

Not often was it used but the option allows me to be a Tesla only household if I desired.

So would renting an ICE car a couple times a year and it'd be a lot cheaper if "range" was the only reason you went LR over SR (personally performance matters a lot more to me than range, so SR is a non-starter...but not because of range)

The SC is an insurmountable advantage for the present.

For the small minority of Americans who need them regularly? Yup. they sure are, as I've said the entire time.

but again they're factually a minority of drivers in the US.

The # of folks for whom it's not an insurmountable advantage is massively larger than the total # of vehicles Tesla can make in a year.

 

[caskater47]

Except when there is a power outage, or you can't drive to the airport and back without stopping to charge, or you can't take a day trip on the weekend, or you can't visit Grandma. A short range EV is fine as a second car that only drives to work and the grocery store. It's not fine for anything else. It does not replace a first car, only a second car, and because most people's second car is the older first car, the market is limited to those who add a driver (in which case that driver gets the older first car), wrecked the first or second car (don't ask), or have a first car that is starting to have too many mechanical issues.

I think the reliance on an ICE car to function is overvalued. My wife has an MDX and we have always used that car to go places on the weekend and be our family vehicle. Since getting my Tesla in September the use of the MDX has dropped significantly. The only time we take the MDX now is for very long trips that are greater than 300 miles one way. I rarely have range anxiety with the car and the cost of electricity being so cheap its well worth the savings in gas. With rare exception charging hasn't been an issue. We usually can stop at a Supercharger along the way and grab dinner or do a grocery run without a problem.

Its been pretty easy not relying on our ICE car. I think most people just can't let go of the fear of range anxiety though. But that's all it is, fear.

 

[Nocturnal]

Logic tells us the average american only drives about 30 miles a day...(and that's the mean, the median is only about 10 miles a day)

Don't get me wrong, for the tiny % that drive 10-20 times more than average with any frequency, Tesla is about the only option that makes sense.

But for the vast majority of the population a non-tesla EV with 200-300 miles of range is not, at all, an issue if it's otherwise competitive and/or better in some way.

This is true, BUT even with Tesla range most people cling to this idea of "but what if I want to randomly drive across the country?" They will never do that, but they have an illusion that they might.

 

[bhzmark]

Sometimes I think Elon is playing chess 10 moves ahead of everyone else, and but more recently I'm thinking he's often just flying by the seat of his pants and trying out stuff to see what works and what doesn't.

 

[jerry33]

Its been pretty easy not relying on our ICE car. I think most people just can't let go of the fear of range anxiety though. But that's all it is, fear.

That would be my guess. Of the 121K we've put on our S85, about 50% is trip miles, the rest is commuting. After the first two trips (and there were no SCs within a couple of thousand miles back then) we never worried about range or finding a place to charge, but we did plan when going to unfamiliar areas just to be sure there were RV parks or PlugShares. Now with SCs, we don't even do that much, other than to make hotel reservations at hotels with ESVEs (type of ESVE doesn't matter, J1772, 14-50, or Tesla format are all fine). One of the things an EV does is make driving a much better option than flying, what with all the flying hassles and expense.

As far as the "you can always rent a car for a trip" goes. That's a non-starter. The last thing I want to do is to take an unfamiliar car, with questionable maintenance, on a trip where I'm going to be driving at high speeds. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me. In addition, rental cars are expensive.

 

[jerry33]

This is true, BUT even with Tesla range most people cling to this idea of "but what if I want to randomly drive across the country?" They will never do that, but they have an illusion that they might.

Once they start driving an electric car they may. We've driven our Tesla to Seattle and Canada, as well as many other places. In a Tesla, the trip is often as much fun as the destination. It's seldom that we go on vacation and drive less than a couple of thousand miles. If you've only ever driven an ICE, a long distance drive isn't much fun, but that changes once you start driving a Tesla.

 

[bhzmark]

Elon (1) thinks from first principles; (2) does not succumb to the sunk cost fallacy; and (3) isn't afraid to change his mind as new data becomes available.

Yes, exactly. This is a more nuanced and accurate view of what I was trying to convey by my "fly-by-seat-of pants" concept I was referring to in earlier post.

But I might add that there is another element of how he processes risk: it's something like (4A) extreme execution success optimism, or perhaps (4B) insufficient discount for risk of execution delay/failure.

But maybe that's a good thing and likely something shared by most entrepreneurs.

But it is an especially keen insight that he is not susceptible to sunk cost fallacy -- a great advantage for him and Tesla and the pace of innovation.

 

[Knightshade]

The last thing I want to do is to take an unfamiliar car, with questionable maintenance

LOLWUT as the kids say.

rental cars are generally 0-2 years old, and maintained better than the average privately owned car.

Between business and personal travel I've rented hundreds of cars- 0 issues due to "questionable maintenance" other than one where they forgot to refill the wiper fluid.

In addition, rental cars are expensive.

They really aren't. But it sounds like you've never rented one so you might not be aware of that.

Certainly nowhere near as expensive as, say, getting a largest-battery-they-sell Tesla instead of a Leaf for someone who only drives 10-30 miles a day 99% of the time and then takes 1-2 road trips a year like most people in the US.


As others have pointed out most of this I NEED LONG RANGE AND SUPERCHARGERS nonsense is just perception/range anxiety, not reality.

Hell there's folks in S60 Teslas who drove cross country long before there were any significant # of superchargers for that matter.


Again, for a small fraction of the country, in reality, the SC network is an insurmountable advantage as one person put it... for most folks it isn't one anyplace but their imagination.

 

[jerry33]

They really aren't. But it sounds like you've never rented one so you might not be aware of that.

I used to rent many for business. I know what they cost. I know how they are maintained.

 

[Vitold]

Tesla has enough of orders to last them for two quarters so they decided to increase the prices again.

The rest is just semantics - store vs gallery - main point is that Tesla does not want to pay sales incentives.

Full disclosure: My IQ is just average.

 

[molder101]

It's always important to understand the habits of those that don't yell at the top of their lungs about every single thing ("twitter is full of twits")... sometimes called the "silent majority."

My take on the situation, in order of importance:

1) Understand the response to a compelling offer made to existing customers, those who did not purchase EAP and/or FSD - what is the effect? (for future modeling and projections)
2) Test the waters for segmented software feature upsells (like buying additional lives in games, etc); Do piecemeal features within the base software generate revenue (namely because AP was segmented from EAP & FSD features) and if so at what rate of acceptance? (for future modeling and projections)
3) Generate additional revenue
4) Keep everyone on their toes!
5) Remind everyone who is at the helm - Elon Musk

Info is priceless when it comes to technology and that is exactly what a Tesla is - technology. It's completely unlike any ICE vehicles out there because it has a "brain" that can be updated after the sale OTA. Many vehicles are limited to post-factory options (usually physical items) and the purchase rate substantially drops off after about nine months (new models with new "features" are introduced). Imagine being able to generate additional revenue through a vehicle that is 3 years old via software feature upsells. It's about the vehicle being able to "feel" new even after being years old and truly brilliant.

Very often those at the tippy top can make seemingly ludicrous or frivolous decisions. For those of us who are looking up, we see it as a naive or ill-conceived move. Those that are at the top often have honed their intuition to the point that it's instinct. When you have an instinct, you want to prove the instinct, which precipitates actions like we have seen with Tesla. Business is about risk, very often calculated. When you are in new waters, you can't always take a calculated risk, you have to "try" something and see how it works/fails. That doesn't make you nuts (though it's possible one like this make be quite close to the line), it makes you a pioneer.

I suspect that the most important aspect was for Mr. Musk to determine if what he foresaw and what actually happened matched up. If it did, he now knows that his instinct is on point. If not, he knows that he needs to review his ideas which in turn will sharpen his instinct.

It's so important to remember that while he's run a bunch of companies, he is in an industry that is wholly different from any other. Balancing tech R&D and the massive costs of regulations all take a toll. I have no doubt that he struggles with pressure that would make an average person spontaneously combust. Combine that with the constant reminder of/push for failure by short sellers and [at times] MSM... it's just incredible how he summons the will to survive... even more so, thrive. His seemingly foolhardy actions very possibly have a root in his will to truly do something incredible in the face of those that wanted him [maybe even tried to cause him] to fail (read "thrive").

Not necessarily going for the analogy, but this is quite similar to our current political administration.