Genius level IQ people. Explain what Tesla is doing!?!

[BYE FOSL]

I am smart, so I realize that I am just a smart ape, as is Elon. I am sure he is a much smarter ape, but still an ape.
Elon is worse when he smokes pot at night. He put out a dumb tweet that made his company have to send me $5,000.
He tweeted false economic info and is still fighting the SEC over that. He makes a lot of rash decisions, not like an engineer. He should stick to being ceative and let a Tim Apple run the company.

 

[Nocturnal]

Once they start driving an electric car they may. We've driven our Tesla to Seattle and Canada, as well as many other places. In a Tesla, the trip is often as much fun as the destination. It's seldom that we go on vacation and drive less than a couple of thousand miles. If you've only ever driven an ICE, a long distance drive isn't much fun, but that changes once you start driving a Tesla.

Yup, just need to get them past that hurdle.

 

[MXWing]

If you rarely do this then it's massively cheaper to just rent a car for the couple of roadtrips a year than spend many thousands of dollars (plus interest if financing) to get an EV that has a bunch of extra range/charging options you don't use 99% of the time.

What if I like my Tesla and would rather just drive that? A Leaf isn't sexy enough for me, and has its own share of problems. Yes it's cheaper, but I have a willingness to pay for the value I get with a Tesla.

Wouldn't one want to take a road trip for practically the safest car?

I need to get dropped off or take ride sharing to rent a car. I place a big premium on convenience.

I'm assuming most people drive short enough distances they don't need one. For the folks who drive 10-30 miles a day on average ANY ev is fine, and no superchargers needed.

Most accidents are close to home. Because you spend a lot of time leaving home and coming home.

With this thread in particular, the participants know avg driving is 10-12K miles per year. Works out to ~ 30 miles per day. We KNOW we can survive with a 40 mile range EV for most days. Maybe 95%? The other 5% is just not worth the hassle.

And most again don't need one.

Though, that said, the average household DOES have ~2 cars- so again folks who don't are much more the exception than the rule.

My point is MOST folks are just fine with the SR tesla (or a bolt, or leaf, or any EV out there anymore). For the uncommon exceptions to those facts there's the longer range Teslas with the SC network-but such folks are factually a minority of drivers in the US.

Almost all folks would be fine with a Tesla. Less than almost all folks would be fine with another Bolt/Leaf/other EV.

Yes I can make do -most- of the time on a Bolt but why would I want to? I guess I place too much premium beyond just range only to go with a multiple car setup, or renting, or ride sharing. I don't expect it out of my car but my mindset in my daily work is 5 9's uptime. I don't need 99.99999 use case coverage for a EV but 99.9 would be great.

So would renting an ICE car a couple times a year and it'd be a lot cheaper if "range" was the only reason you went LR over SR (personally performance matters a lot more to me than range, so SR is a non-starter...but not because of range)

I drive every car like a race car. Even a UHaul so my actual range is well below rated. I am sure this for a lot of of people to.
I'm not driving from LA to Vegas iin a Bolt at 50MPH and drafting behind a truck so I can find the 1 fast DC charger along the way. NOPE
I like my Tesla, I don't want to rent something else.

75D Model X does Vegas ok but even the stops are more than I prefer. 100D would have been perfect.. the Model 3 LR kicks ass for this trip.

The # of folks for whom it's not an insurmountable advantage is massively larger than the total # of vehicles Tesla can make in a year.

Come on man, we are talking insurmountable advantage for Tesla vs other EVs. Keep up!

This is true, BUT even with Tesla range most people cling to this idea of "but what if I want to randomly drive across the country?" They will never do that, but they have an illusion that they might.

I need a supercharger going to San Diego. I need one going to Vegas. I need one going to San Francisco. Not randomly across the country.

Think how frieken slow it would be to take a Bolt from SF to Vegas. Also not flying 4-6 people to Vegas either.

Because you can, doesn't mean you want to. Doesn't mean you should.

 

[Nocturnal]

I need a supercharger going to San Diego. I need one going to Vegas. I need one going to San Francisco. Not randomly across the country.

Think how frieken slow it would be to take a Bolt from SF to Vegas.

Because you can, doesn't mean you want to. Doesn't mean you should.

I agree 100%. Even as is I can go anywhere that I really want to go. Places without any SC access are unlikely to be on my (or 99% of all driver's) list. Most of those are still probably even ok if you can charge once you get to your cabin or militia compound or whatever.

 

[woodguyatl]

Those locations they have came open for one reason or another over the course of YEARS. When they came open a leasing rep follows up on their leads and finds the best use and highest paying tenant they can find. If tesla wants to play the “we might close at anytime” game I can assure you that’ll bump them down a few notches. I’d take a 10 year deal from Zara that’ll take major square footage over a short term deal for a 2,500 sq ft Tesla store. Just depends on the pieces of the puzzle. And what changes is someone else takes the space, expands, etc.

Pop ups are a different beast. That’s specialty leasing. Some high end malls don’t even allow this. Sommerset in the Detroit area is an example. Plus they’ll pay a higher rate of percentage rent since it’s short term and a good rep will compress the breakpoint.

Truly I think their best bet is to get out of malls and onto the street. Have some inventory for those shoppers who plan out a Saturday to buy a car and want to drive 3 different makes back to back and buy that same day.

Do you really think Tesla is paying percentage rent?

 

[Knightshade]

What if I like my Tesla and would rather just drive that? A Leaf isn't sexy enough for me, and has its own share of problems. Yes it's cheaper, but I have a willingness to pay for the value I get with a Tesla.

I mean, so do I- so not sure your point?

I care more than average about handling/acceleration so I'm not driving a leaf.

but most people really don't.... (see also the huge growth in SUV sales and the dying off of sedans and coupes)

So most of why you or I would rather pay more and drive a tesla doesn't exist for those folks.

I need to get dropped off or take ride sharing to rent a car. I place a big premium on convenience.

Depending where I'm going it's much more convenient to rent an ICE vehicle, but YMMV of course.


For most trips over ~500 miles I'll be flying someplace and then renting a car for one thing. I'd much rather spend an hour in the air than 10 on the road to get where I'm going.

Yes I can make do -most- of the time on a Bolt but why would I want to?

Because you can get one for a ton less money?

And for those who just want an EV to get from A to B and don't live their live 1/4 mile at a time, that's much more important than a great 0-60 time.

I guess I place too much premium beyond just range only to go with a multiple car setup, or renting, or ride sharing.

Then it's great Tesla is an option for you.

But it doesn't mean other EVs aren't one for a ton of other people with priorities than might not match yours or mine.

Come on man, we are talking insurmountable advantage for Tesla vs other EVs. Keep up!

I am- my point was the SC network isn't such a thing for most drivers. It certainly is for some small % of them that actually drive a ton more than average with any frequency, but not for most.

For those from whom it's a huge deal, Teslas got you covered.

For the average American who's only doing 10-30 miles a day and maybe takes 1 or 2 actual long driving trips a year, a leaf or bolt could save him $10,000 or more and then Hertz has that guy covered for a LONG time on the savings for the rare trip he takes... (or his second car does- since again the average American household HAS A SPARE CAR and it's almost certainly an ICE vehicle)

 

[Matias]

It only goes to 100.

 

[jerry33]

I mean, so do I- so not sure your point?

I care more than average about handling/acceleration so I'm not driving a leaf.

but most people really don't.... (see also the huge growth in SUV sales and the dying off of sedans and coupes)

So most of why you or I would rather pay more and drive a tesla doesn't exist for those folks.

...

I am- my point was the SC network isn't such a thing for most drivers. It certainly is for some small % of them that actually drive a ton more than average with any frequency, but not for most.

For those from whom it's a huge deal, Teslas got you covered.

For the average American who's only doing 10-30 miles a day and maybe takes 1 or 2 actual long driving trips a year, a leaf or bolt could save him $10,000 or more and then Hertz has that guy covered for a LONG time on the savings for the rare trip he takes... (or his second car does- since again the average American household HAS A SPARE CAR and it's almost certainly an ICE vehicle)

In my opinion, these arguments boil down to: You can save the most money by living in a one room furnished apartment and eat canned beans. Not everyone wants to live like that.

 

[Knightshade]

In my opinion, these arguments boil down to: You can save the most money by living in a one room furnished apartment and eat canned beans. Not everyone wants to live like that.

For a guy who buys a car just to get from place to place, which is most of the population as evidenced by the number of what models sell the most there's very little value in paying $10,000 more for a tesla than a leaf.

He's getting nothing out of his extra $10,000 because he was perfectly happy in his corolla or civic, he just wanted to stop buying gasoline.

If you were never happy in a corolla either- congrats! You are both not the average car buyer in the US and not the type of person even being discussed.

I'd personally HATE driving a FWD car that takes twice as long as my model 3 to get to 60 from 0. But I too am very NOT representative of the average american driver... (and I put considerably more than the average 10-30 miles a day on a car too).


Whereas for most people there's a significant, functional, and perceptible difference between living in a single room and say a mutli-bedroom house or apartment. Ditto eating canned beans versus a perfectly cooked steak.

 

[pleeau]

I see one of two scenarios as most likely.

1) Low cash, desperation mode, fly-by-the-seat of Elon's pants decision making... or

2) Big model changes coming so clearing out inventory. They've learned by now that changing models always creates massive backlash from people who just missed the boat. So... cut the price, clear out inventory. Raise the price... then announce new models. Those who are paying the new price get the new models. Those who got the old models, paid less.

V3 supercharger, S/X refresh due, HW3... seems like scenario 2...

3 sigma...

 

[SammichLover]

View attachment 385435

Oops, I see I typo. Let me just fix that up.

 

[cbruner]

As a study, I’d like to know if genius level IQ person(s) can explain what the hell is going on.


1.) Why is Tesla whipping their prices with such high frequencies and amplitudes. Do they know what they are doing? Not pissing people off is common sense?

2.) How can they announce store closures one day and just go about face the next? Leases to pay are common sense?
Do they know what they are doing?

Look up Irish potato famine. The interesting thing, is that in the following years, any price fluctuation caused a mass run on the potato market.
Note that there has been a mass run on the Tesla 3 market. They had to extend the date because of the demand. This is due to government incentives ending, price drop, then price being raised.

I don't know if it's on purpose, or luck. But I do think that it's going to be reflected in this quarter's numbers. (Which is why I've now re-invested).

 

[WVWilly]

Just a note on IQ. The tests were developed by the army to find people who were not fit for service. It was not designed to find out if someone had high intelligence, just low intelligence. Thus a high IQ is not a measure of anything.

 

[jerry33]

Just a note on IQ. The tests were developed by the army to find people who were not fit for service. It was not designed to find out if someone had high intelligence, just low intelligence. Thus a high IQ is not a measure of anything.

Might be a measure of culture because questions can filter out those who weren't brought up in the culture the exam was written for. For someone who just saw the word "priceless" would naturally think without price (valueless), but that's not what it means.

 

[MXWing]

Just a note on IQ. The tests were developed by the army to find people who were not fit for service. It was not designed to find out if someone had high intelligence, just low intelligence. Thus a high IQ is not a measure of anything.

Might be a measure of culture because questions can filter out those who weren't brought up in the culture the exam was written for. For someone who just saw the word "priceless" would naturally think without price (valueless), but that's not what it means.

Folks, I would read up more on IQ before making declarative assumptions.

In 2019 there are much more reliable ways to measure ability across a broad spectrum rather than just take an old army test and be given a single score. Gifted people today using the old tests would score 200+ which is ridiculous when the mean should be 100.

Tests like Stanford Binet and Weschler Intelligence Scales, are very reliable means to determine IQ and covers multiple areas of learning.

Not all high IQ people are accomplished scientists and engineers.

All accomplished scientists and engineers do not have low IQ.

The mentioned tests comes in different languages and have testing elements that are not culturally biased. There’s also a reason why you need to take IQ tests from a psychologist that can account for cultural factors.

“What’s your IQ” Facebook links are probably not a reliable means of determining your IQ.

The only real problem with IQ is it appears to have little relation to EQ.

 

[EVDRVN]

As a study, I’d like to know if genius level IQ person(s) can explain what the hell is going on.

I have two questions:

1.) Why is Tesla whipping their prices with such high frequencies and amplitudes. Do they know what they are doing? Not pissing people off is common sense?

2.) How can they announce store closures one day and just go about face the next? Leases to pay are common sense?
Do they know what they are doing?

Why IQ matters is studies show that people have trouble explaining concepts and see things differently than someone who is 30 points lower or 30 points higher.

Is Tesla playing 4D chess? Is there method to the madness?

Elon Musk I would guess around 160 but also twice exceptional which explains some of the oddities like insulting the SEC which can’t be rationalized out by and stretch.

I have no idea on my clinical IQ but I am sure some here think it is very low.

A running joke is I am 90 and my wife is 200 and our children got the average.

Please opine if you are gifted (130) or just normal (100-115) or don’t even know. Really curious on how we all interpret all this.

Without testing and slowness at number sequences I’m going to guess normal for me.

The answer is very simply and does not require over thinking. Poor leadership and lack of business maturity. I can assure you that some people at the top contribute to this and the lack of experienced business leadership is a big issue. There has been a complete lack of understanding of what it means to be a sales and CS organization at Tesla and value for simple customer focused processes. I have been waiting for this crisis for some time, giving feedback to senior people that just seem to not care because they are blinded by Elon's cowboy mentality. I've been down this road in the dot bomb era and you simply can't get people to listen until the pain threshold gets very high. The worst part is that this is all public and feedback from other company executives does not seem to be sinking in. There is no genius strategy here with the sales and marketing it is just painful incompetence unfortunately. Ellison is not a people person either, he treats people with no respect including his peers and even when guests on his plane. There is no real figure at Tesla that seems to fully understand that presently Tesla sells goods to consumers.

There are many polished options to do the things they do and not look like they are in a panic. I won't rant on about this because any competent business person knows the playbook.

 

[N5329K]

Though EM is not a Tesla founder (except in his own mind and in every media piece ever written), these gyrations in company direction really are classic founder’s syndrome. You have a charismatic (and yes, even genius) founder with his hands on the tiller and who in the company is going to tell him he’s wrong when he gets a New Big Idea (which are often great, BTW) and throws it hard over one night? What is lacking is a keel, and every puff of wind sends it off in a new direction.
Airplanes, too. The ones that lack natural stability are fun to fly and easy to flick around. Too much stability and they’re dreary to fly, though popular with passengers. Just right is a hard compromise to get right, in airplanes and in companies.
Robin

 

[VQTRVA]

As a study, I’d like to know if genius level IQ person(s) can explain what the hell is going on.

I have two questions:

1.) Why is Tesla whipping their prices with such high frequencies and amplitudes. Do they know what they are doing? Not pissing people off is common sense?

2.) How can they announce store closures one day and just go about face the next? Leases to pay are common sense?
Do they know what they are doing?

I can answer this question #1.

This happens all the time in the most industry. But usually there is a reseller aka middleman i.e. dealer - so it's not always obvious & a lot of the time is transparent to purchasers.

In the car manufacturer/dealership partnership: the mannies will usually change pricing monthly or even weekly but will work with the dealers to roll the changes without touching their MSRP.
Then it is up to the dealers to either pass all or in most cases - some of - the savings on to customers in the form of final sale prices cuts, rebates or credits towards purchases at the dealership. And in some cases they use to price reduction to satisfy the already financed un-sold inventory sitting on the lot.
In other words there are many ways to reduce prices that don't necessarily touch the MSRP.

In Tesla's case - there is obviously no middleman or dealers - & their advertised price (MSRP if you will) doesn't carry any middleman baggage. So when they roll through a price change - based on demand or logistical productivity - you can see the levers being pulled because there isn't a curtain to hide all of this like a middleman.

You can argue that they should forecast demand & productivity better but I can argue that we all don't know anything most of the time in the traditional dealer/manufacturer relationship when & why prices are dropped.

 

[SO16]

The problem here is that there have been negative groups and individuals saying that since 2008. It gets a little old when they have been proven wrong every single time.

And they will again. What is amazing though are the idiots who keep believing it for some reason.

 

[tpatana]

High IQ don't make you be any more correct (or wrong) than any other person. It just makes you be correct (or wrong) faster than the other person.