That's not the point of my question. You don't need specialised equipment to move works in progress. It's a well understood taks that is relatively straightforward to implement. It's difficult to see how that could be a hold up for 4+ months.
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That's not the point of my question. You don't need specialised equipment to move works in progress. It's a well understood taks that is relatively straightforward to implement. It's difficult to see how that could be a hold up for 4+ months.
Tesla said when the Model 3 was unveiled that they would produce the most profitable models first. IIRC, it was only when Model 3 was starting production that we got estimates for the low priced models of ‘begin 2018’. Now that it’s clear that the ramp is more difficult than their wildly optimistic dreams, they reverted back to their initial plan. With the current automation level of the packs, they probably need the high margin models to conserve cash. The people waiting for the lower priced models should consider themselves lucky that there is no talk about producing the performance model before the lower priced model (yet).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
No need, I'm not the sensitive type.
Indeed, I've used the same argument for over a decade.
As I've stated I simply don't think an increase in the tax refund will have a meaningful positive impact in relation to the negativity it will generate. I think EV's are good enough to stand on their own, especially in the higher price ranges. Long range EV's don't have a demand problem.
Agree, the tax credit FUD has been amongst the most heavily repeated FUD. So heavily promoted and repeated, that more than once, I've been quite surprised to hear it brought up to me as if it were basic common knowledge from people in real life I know do not listen to the media sources that originated this narrative.
What's more, if changes are made in the program, I have concerns that it is GM and/or Ford behind the move to revise it, and somehow they might find a way of resetting the program to actually serve as a headwind to Tesla and/or EVs in general.
100% questionable opinions of mine:
The WIP was meant to be human moveable, and the machines weren't designed for humans to be doing the moving. Also the machine parts they are using have questionable efficency.
First there were two types of fully automated machines that did not work at all (per yesterday's call).
Then we heard Tesla reprogrammed them to be some what functional.
Now we hear they also replace the automated inter-step movement with people power. I'm thinking that required seperation of the sub-steps along with additional guards/ protection and shifting them further apart for access.
You also have the issue that you could need up to one person per intra-step. 3 lines × 5 intra steps would be 15 people at full pay to simulate an automated system, not cost effective.
In addition, it sounds like they redesigned the two machines (Q3 said new 4th line was as fast as all 3 original lines). So the people are likely keeping pace with a slow version of the machine. To go faster would either require multiple people doing same transfer step (unlikely to be effective), or building more parallel lines with associated labor costs.
Not as fast, cost effective, or reliable/repeatable to use humans to move things instead of machine.
And the new machine is now fully functional and further optomized.
@Tenable, I received the same email last night. There is some issue with my account that is preventing me from seeing my revised delivery range. I have a strong suspicion that Tesla may have bumped ALL of these reservation delivery estimates out by 3 months,
rather than doing so for the segments that due to slower ramp won't get config notifications until later than they have been shown over the past few months. They will be producing and delivering several thousand M3 over next 2 - 3 months, so a large % of reservation holders who were told to expect config notice in Q1, should still get their notice in the coming weeks.
Just telling everyone they've been pushed out 3 more months would be totally low grade from a system/software/operations standpoint IMO.
Hopefully they were more selective about who got this email. If they were not, it's further evidence to support my theory that Elon challenged his boys to do all the coding for the reservation system as a good learning experience for the 'Musk Boys'.
I'd guess many would say that if they did the coding, reservation system would be functioning much better than it is.
bdy0627
Active Member
I revised my M3 Q1 production following the CC last night. Musk and JB would not directly answer the question of what the production rate is currently. I suspect it is below 1,000 per week. My guess is that it is around 750 - 800. Since they will continue to use the semi-manual battery module approach until late March, that likely means a production rate of 750 - 1,000. That will likely jump to around 2,000 the last week in March. Perhaps they will be able to achieve a burst rate of 2,500 the last week in March to allow them to kinda confirm their guidance. If this is all reasonably accurate, then M3 production for Q1 should be around 11,000 with deliveries below 10,000 due to production increasing at the end of the month. I think the realistic production range is 10,000 - 12,000.
Maybe, but this bit has me hoping they'll be able to scale up more until the automated lines arrive:
Waiting4M3
Active Member
As long as Tesla achieves price parity with ICE cars, and is still expanding from their <1% nascent market share, if there is any additional incentive that lowers the prices of GM/Ford's EVs to match Tesla, it only serves to help those EVs compete for ICE car sales. There is nothing to worry about from Tesla's perspective.
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Anybody else remembers what was the ram-up goal before the 2016.March.31 unveil of the Model 3 ?
IIRC, the plan was to start production by the end of 2017 and ramp to 500k/year (10k/week) by 2020.
This was "accelerated" when the number of reservations turned out to be unexpectedly high.
At that time, my sentiment was (knowing from experience Elon-time scales), that with the accelerated aspirations, the original plan might actually be delivered in reality. Ramp-up seems to be ahead of the original schedule with the currently know details.
IIRC, the plan was to start production by the end of 2017 and ramp to 500k/year (10k/week) by 2020.
This was "accelerated" when the number of reservations turned out to be unexpectedly high.
At that time, my sentiment was (knowing from experience Elon-time scales), that with the accelerated aspirations, the original plan might actually be delivered in reality. Ramp-up seems to be ahead of the original schedule with the currently know details.
You might not need specialized equipment to move them around, but you might need multiple people or a forklift, if you want to avoid people throwing out their back or such.
Or when you refer to specialized equipment, are you referring to the new Grohman designed line? Are you thinking they're just going to replace only the people with the new equipment? The new equipment, which is certainly specialized, is an entirely new end to end line that works correctly, unlike the exist semi-automated line which is a patchwork of originally nonfunctional components they had to reprogram to work *poorly* with the assistance of human intervention. Even if they replaced the humans with functional automated transport of works in progress, the throughput on the existing line(s) would probably be miserable compared to that on the new Grohman designed line.
sub
Active Member
Anyone know how the badly designed equipment financials will be handled? Will the responsible vendor be forced to eat those costs? Speculation of course.
I've found this on Reddit:
(thread here)
The fact that some Canada reservations have been anticipated (and not delayed as everyone else) probably means that Tesla would like to maximize the tax credit for US buyers... which would be good on many levels:
(thread here)
The fact that some Canada reservations have been anticipated (and not delayed as everyone else) probably means that Tesla would like to maximize the tax credit for US buyers... which would be good on many levels:
- more money left in buyers pocket to purchase better options > more money for Tesla
- higher morale of buyers
- Canada gets Model 3 sooner, anticipating the "EV snowball effect" that we all foresee for the next years
I don't. To extend the tax credit another quarter to the end of the year would mean that Tesla can deliver at most 20k Model 3's by the end of the second quarter : 11k in the US and 9k in Canada. It would be the definition of a failed ramp and an unholy miss of the 2500/week + 5000/week end of quarter projections.
I'm just thinking about arriving at 200k on first days of Q2 ;-)
But I understand the tradeoff.
If they solve bottlenecks and we are at 10k/month, it's not worth it, and you just go with the flow.
But if they can manage to tweak international deliveries to get a new full quarter of tax credit, that's a lot of money saved and probably earned (also: you avoid a lot of angry customers who expected the tax credit).
If Tesla holds off $200k until day 1 of Q3, the move will reverberate for a long time, saving Tesla owners something like 500 million-750 million dollars, all depending on exactly how many cars they are making at those points in the future.
Q408 = $7,500 instead of $3,750
Q109 = $3,750
Q209 = $3,750 instead of $1,875
Q309 = $1,875
Q409 = $1,875 instead of $0
Q408 = $7,500 instead of $3,750
Q109 = $3,750
Q209 = $3,750 instead of $1,875
Q309 = $1,875
Q409 = $1,875 instead of $0
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